IONQ

IonQ, Inc.

stock all instruments

+4.4

net board stance what this means

42.72

+8.1% · close 2026-09-08

-4% / -25% / +4%

1m / 3m / 12m

-9%

vs SPY since 2025-05-17

29%

of 52w range · -48.0% off high

—

hit rate as primary

Where we stand — 1 live idea

idea	call	play	conviction	contributes	flag	eval in
🤖 Willow's error-correction scaling puts encryption on a two-to-five-year clock CONTESTED	▲ LONG	adjacent ×0.5	8.8	+4.4	—	94d

Where the winds are blowing

NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES — rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.

PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the talk lead the tape or follow it?

Who's pushing which way

each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means

Friedberg w=1.08 tech

1 idea (1 live) · last heard E207

pushes up

Chamath w=0.90 tech

1 idea (1 live) · last heard E207

pushes up

Keith Rabois guest ×1.0

1 idea (1 live) · last heard E207

-3

pushes down

What resolves next

kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not

2026-12-13 94d ▲ 🤖 Willow's error-correction scaling puts encryption on a two-to-five-year clock 9

The tape — what was actually said

every capture on any idea holding IONQ, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode

KE Keith Rabois oppose ×3 ▲ on 🤖 Willow's error-correction scaling puts encryption on a two-to-five-year clock E207 · 2024-12-13 ▶ 35:53

First of all, I think there's a long time before this becomes a commercial product or application of any sort. So it's great that they're taking money, but think about it as almost like Stanford takes money or the US government funds basic research in some ways. This is at least a decade out kind of thing.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🤖 Willow's error-correction scaling puts encryption on a two-to-five-year clock E207 · 2024-12-13 ▶ 32:19

So if you think of Willow as essentially like one stable, logical, qubit equivalent in a chip, we need about 4,000 to break RSA 2048, and we need about 8,000 to break SH8256, which is the underlying encryption framework for Bitcoin.

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🤖 Willow's error-correction scaling puts encryption on a two-to-five-year clock E207 · 2024-12-13 ▶ 27:39

And so we're now kind of spitting distance or a couple of years. It's not really clear. Is it three years, five years, seven years? But a couple of years away from having computers that theoretically could crack all encryption standards... And all of computing and all software is going to need to move to post quantum encryption in the next couple of years.