🏛️ Florida's cultivated-meat ban spreads to other ranching states before federal preemption undoes it
Friedberg's regulatory-capture call the week Florida's legislature passed a bill (86-27 House, 28-20 Senate) making the manufacture, sale or possession of cultivated meat a second-degree misdemeanour: a billion-dollar state ranching lobby bought an incumbency ban, Texas and other big ranching states copy it, and only federal preemption legislation over the next couple of years reopens the market. The precedent generalizes - local incumbents get a template to block any disruptive technology that threatens them - so the alternative-protein category carries a state-regulatory overhang on top of its cost problem, and the conventional-protein incumbents get protected. Chamath dissents that the law is 'meaningless and unimpactful' because the product is nowhere near competitive anyway.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 41.6 EMBER
DORMANT
band · contested
▼ SHORT BYND
expression · bearish politics-market
HIT
outcome · R +91.1% · α +58.4%
2026-03-15
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-03-15 → 2026-03-15 — first mention + 24-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT BYND (primary play). BYND fell 91.1% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +91.1% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +32.7%
→ α = +91.1 − (+32.7) = +58.4%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +123.8% — did BYND move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 91.1, α 58.4)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg, Sacks | opposed: Chamath | proxy-sensitive: TSN→MISS (-14.9%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-03-15)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | BYND | stock | PRIMARY | the only liquid listed proxy for alternative-protein sentiment; carries the category's regulatory headline risk |
| ▼ SHORT | TSN | stock | adjacent | conventional-protein incumbent on the protected side of the ranching lobby's ban |
Mention log
Friedberg
politics-market w=0.84 · n=74
· E170 (2024-03-15) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:27:04
SUPPORT
· horizon 24mo
“it's very likely that we'll end up seeing some legislation here over the next couple of years if this technology is ultimately beneficial. The problem is now that Florida has done this, I guarantee you're going to see Texas, which is a huge ranching state, and many other states step up to do it.”
Sacks
politics-market w=0.97 · n=88
· E170 (2024-03-15) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 1:28:35
SUPPORT
“I think it's really terrible when a bunch of incumbents in an industry get together and try to shut out the innovative solution by inventing some unproven threat that they turn into some sort of bogeyman.”
Friedberg
politics-market w=0.84 · n=74
· E186 (2024-07-04) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 42:40
SUPPORT
“It's also with the lab-grown meat or cultivated meat laws that they've passed. And other states are passing similar laws, which is limiting innovation in the state and limiting freedom to operate in the state in order to protect interests of individuals and corporations that already exist within that state.”
Friedberg
politics-market w=0.84 · n=74
· E228 (2025-05-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:19:49
SUPPORT
“And now, by the way, there's a house bill being proposed to do the same thing throughout the United States. Meanwhile, China and Europe are building cellular meat systems that are rocketing ahead.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -41.9 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E170 2024-03-15 | init | +35.2 | 35.2 | E170 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.84] |
| E170 2024-03-15 | oppose | -9.8 | 25.4 | E170 Chamath opposes x1 [w=1.02] |
| E170 2024-03-15 | reinforce | +16.2 | 41.6 | E170 Sacks support x2 (new voice) [w=0.97] |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -0.8 | 40.8 | E171 silent |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -0.8 | 40.0 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -0.8 | 39.2 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -0.8 | 38.4 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -0.8 | 37.6 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -0.8 | 36.9 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -0.7 | 36.1 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -0.7 | 35.4 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -0.7 | 34.7 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -0.7 | 34.0 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -0.7 | 33.3 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -0.7 | 32.6 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -0.7 | 32.0 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -0.6 | 31.4 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -0.6 | 30.7 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | reinforce | +8.7 | 39.4 | E186 Friedberg support x2 [w=0.84] |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -0.8 | 38.6 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -0.8 | 37.9 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -0.8 | 37.1 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -0.7 | 36.4 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -0.7 | 35.6 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -0.7 | 34.9 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -0.7 | 34.2 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -0.7 | 33.5 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -0.7 | 32.9 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -0.7 | 32.2 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -0.6 | 31.6 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -0.6 | 30.9 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -0.6 | 30.3 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -0.6 | 29.7 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -0.6 | 29.1 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -0.6 | 28.5 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -0.6 | 28.0 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -0.6 | 27.4 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -0.5 | 26.9 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -0.5 | 26.3 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -0.5 | 25.8 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -0.5 | 25.3 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -0.5 | 24.8 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -0.5 | 24.3 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -0.5 | 23.8 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -0.5 | 23.3 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -0.5 | 22.9 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -0.5 | 22.4 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -0.4 | 21.9 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -0.4 | 21.5 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -0.4 | 21.1 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | -0.4 | 20.7 | E218 silent |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -0.4 | 20.2 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -0.4 | 19.8 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | decay | -0.4 | 19.4 | E221 silent |
| E222 2025-04-05 | decay | -0.4 | 19.1 | E222 silent |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -0.4 | 18.7 | E223 silent |
| E224 2025-04-19 | decay | -0.4 | 18.3 | E224 silent |
| E225 2025-04-26 | decay | -0.4 | 17.9 | E225 silent |
| E226 2025-05-02 | decay | -0.4 | 17.6 | E226 silent |
| E227 2025-05-09 | decay | -0.4 | 17.2 | E227 silent |
| E228 2025-05-17 | reinforce | +12.5 | 29.7 | E228 Friedberg support x3 [w=0.84] |
| E228 2025-05-17 | oppose | -12.2 | 17.5 | E228 Chamath opposes x2 [w=1.02] |
| E229 2025-05-24 | decay | -0.3 | 17.1 | E229 silent |
| E231 2025-06-13 | decay | -0.3 | 16.8 | E231 silent |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -0.3 | 16.4 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | decay | -0.3 | 16.1 | E233 silent |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -0.3 | 15.8 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -0.3 | 15.5 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -0.3 | 15.2 | E236 silent |
| E237 2025-08-01 | decay | -0.3 | 14.9 | E237 silent |
| E238 2025-08-09 | decay | -0.3 | 14.6 | E238 silent |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -0.3 | 14.3 | E239 silent |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -0.3 | 14.0 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -0.3 | 13.7 | E241 silent |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -0.3 | 13.4 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -0.3 | 13.2 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -0.3 | 12.9 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -0.3 | 12.6 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | decay | -0.3 | 12.4 | E246 silent |
| E247 2025-10-17 | decay | -0.2 | 12.1 | E247 silent |
| E248 2025-10-24 | decay | -0.2 | 11.9 | E248 silent |
| E249 2025-10-31 | decay | -0.2 | 11.7 | E249 silent |
| E250 2025-11-07 | decay | -0.2 | 11.4 | E250 silent |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -0.2 | 11.2 | E251 silent |
| E252 2025-11-22 | decay | -0.2 | 11.0 | E252 silent |
| E253 2025-12-06 | decay | -0.2 | 10.7 | E253 silent |
| E254 2025-12-13 | decay | -0.2 | 10.5 | E254 silent |
| E255 2025-12-19 | decay | -0.2 | 10.3 | E255 silent |
| E256 2025-12-31 | decay | -0.2 | 10.1 | E256 silent |
| E257 2026-01-10 | decay | -0.2 | 9.9 | E257 silent |
| E258 2026-01-17 | decay | -0.2 | 9.7 | E258 silent |
| E259 2026-01-30 | decay | -0.2 | 9.5 | E259 silent |
| E260 2026-02-07 | decay | -0.2 | 9.3 | E260 silent |
| E261 2026-02-13 | decay | -0.2 | 9.1 | E261 silent |
| E262 2026-02-28 | decay | -0.2 | 9.0 | E262 silent |
| E263 2026-03-06 | decay | -0.2 | 8.8 | E263 silent |
| E264 2026-03-13 | decay | -0.2 | 8.6 | E264 silent |