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Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 China's growth engine breaks - property bust plus bank runs E136 · 2023-07-09 ▶ 37:31

China economically, I don't know where the demand is going to come from. You know, on the same time that their internal demand is imploding, they're creating all these export controls that I think are not going to actually help them solve the problem because it just accelerates Western economies' desire to delever from China.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 China's growth engine breaks - property bust plus bank runs E131 · 2023-06-02 ▶ 50:07

China has real problems. There is no question about it. They have got demographic problems, they have got problems in the banking system, they have got a real estate bubble.

Friedberg oppose ×1 ▼ on 🌍 China's growth engine breaks - property bust plus bank runs E106 · 2022-12-03 ▶ 1:02:58

We always think that it's a linear line and that it's super dogmatic and fixed, but there's certainly responsiveness. And the release of the lockdowns in Guangzhou and Beijing this week seems to have been a pretty good indication that when things do get, when the tides do change, leadership there seems to respond, not always, but enough to kind of keep things going.

Chamath oppose ×2 ▼ on 🌍 China's growth engine breaks - property bust plus bank runs E106 · 2022-12-03 ▶ 1:06:53

And it looks like they have decided that that's coming to an end, and they're going to, you know, deconstruct all of these things. So, you know, the Chinese growth engine is coming back.

Jason support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 China's growth engine breaks - property bust plus bank runs E88 · 2022-07-22 ▶ 53:25

And these are regional banks, to be clear. This isn't the national banks. And so, at the same time, the mortgage boycotts are happening at 301 unfinished developments in 91 cities.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 China's growth engine breaks - property bust plus bank runs E88 · 2022-07-22 ▶ 49:08

No, I think it's more like 2008, Jason. I think it's more like the financial crisis in 2008 that was driven by the real estate bubble. They've got their own real estate bubble, which is collapsing there.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🌍 China's growth engine breaks - property bust plus bank runs E88 · 2022-07-22 ▶ 53:57

So a lot of the conflict and the things that are starting to fall apart, which may just be the tip of the iceberg, is a function of a fundamentally slowing economy and the forecast and the outlook for an economy that doesn't have the drivers it's had historically.

Friedberg oppose ×2 ▼ on 🌍 China's crackdown spirals its own economy down E88 · 2022-07-22 ▶ 1:08:04

They can take a five- ten- and thirty-year outlook and make a plan and invest against it. It's what they did from the beginning. I wouldn't count them out, but there's certainly a lot of challenges they're facing right now.

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 🌍 China's crackdown spirals its own economy down E88 · 2022-07-22 ▶ 1:02:01

It's really a self-own. I mean, they've moved away from the policies that have made them so successful economically over the last 40 years. And then on top of that, you got this debt crisis and this housing crisis.

Jason support ×3 ▼ on 🌍 China's crackdown spirals its own economy down E88 · 2022-07-22 ▶ 47:52

China is in chaos right now, apparently, in terms of slowing economic growth, bank protests, mortgage protests, exactly what I predicted last year when you guys were talking about China was going to dunk on us.

Chamath oppose ×3 ▼ on 🌍 China's crackdown spirals its own economy down E84 · 2022-06-24 ▶ 1:26:50

China's input cost has been capped. And so they don't suffer the same rate of inflation that the rest of us do. ... we allowed our largest competitive frenemy, if you will, to basically be able to, you know, drive their entire economy at 30 to 40% of the discount to what we have to pay to do the same.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 China's crackdown spirals its own economy down E82 · 2022-05-24 ▶ 29:27

China is on the precipice of this because of this one China policy. I think the stat that I saw, which is stunning, is there's 1.2 billion people in China? 1.4? By 2100, it's going to be around 600 million. If that's true, the point is just that there's a real issue.

I think there was a concern that there would be an entire meltdown of the full Chinese economy, which is not what we feel on the ground. I think, if anything, it's created a set of opportunities to really level set, especially on the living sector. It's really accelerated some policies to make it easier to build and to create rental housing ... China is only as urbanized as the US was in about 1950

Sacks oppose ×2 ▼ on 🌍 China's crackdown spirals its own economy down E72 · 2022-03-19 ▶ 35:46

Russia will become a Chinese client ... those resources are going to flow on a conveyor belt, on a belt and road conveyor belt from Moscow to Beijing, and they're going to fuel the Chinese economy

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 China's crackdown spirals its own economy down E72 · 2022-03-19 ▶ 37:44

China is still a fundamentally export driven economy, of which 35% just alone goes to the United States. When you add in Europe and other OECD countries, it's almost 60%. ... I think the idea that all of a sudden, Russia will be able to backdoor all of these things through China into the rest of the world, I think is not really realistic.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 China's crackdown spirals its own economy down E64 · 2022-01-22 ▶ 44:31

So this weekend, China cut interest rates. ... Well, if you are cutting rates, it is because you are worried about the other problem, which is that the economy is basically turned over and you need to become more accommodating.

Sacks support ×1 ▼ on 🌍 China's crackdown spirals its own economy down E49 · 2021-10-02 ▶ 1:20:25

We have a looming debt crisis in China. We have supply chain shortages.

Sacks oppose ×2 ▼ on 🌍 China's crackdown spirals its own economy down E42 · 2021-07-30 ▶ 34:02

I think J. Cal is right in the sense, I don't think it's gonna be like a binary decision where all of a sudden everyone just stops doing business in China, but they're gonna be hedging their bets.

Chamath oppose ×2 ▼ on 🌍 China's crackdown spirals its own economy down E42 · 2021-07-30 ▶ 33:17

I disagree with you. No, I disagree with you. And the reason I disagree with you is... ... Because you know what, if you're coming from China, and you can only make a billion versus 45 billion, I think you still take the shot. ... Everybody, guess what? Because if you want a shred of fucking lithium, if you want a battery, if you want nickel, if you want anything to happen, you need to work with China.

Jason support ×3 ▼ on 🌍 China's crackdown spirals its own economy down E42 · 2021-07-30 ▶ 35:22

I think this is going to be like a spiraling down of their economy. I don't think it's going to spiral up. ... I think they just throttled innovation and they just shot themselves in both feet. I think they're going to regret this decision.