+0.0
net board stance
what this means
4.68
+0.1% · close 2026-09-08
-34% / -9% / -75%
1m / 3m / 12m
-173%
vs SPY since 2021-11-06
1%
of 52w range · -81.1% off high
—
hit rate as primary
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 48 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on LCID
No closed window has used this ticker as its primary play, so there is no scored record here yet. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 EV makers outrun the legacy automakers | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -46.5% | -27.9 | 2022-11-06 |
| 📈 Rivian at $100B+ is disconnected from reality | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | HIT | +76.6% | +90.1 | 2022-11-13 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding LCID, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Every consumer wants to save money on transportation and you will save money by buying an electric vehicle. So you will already buy an electric vehicle.
And EVs just cross 5%. So to his point, the historical data would tell you that we're now past the critical point where it's no longer questionable and now it's just going to happen.
yes, sure, theoretically, people will think about buying an electric car, but most people aren't thinking about that on average for five or six years from now, because that's the average of a 12 year cycle, right?
The AI team on that self-driving team, which I've met and I've seen their work like, you know, in private and it's so impressive
other people are coming in and looking at this company and saying they've built facilities, they've built assembly lines, and they've got pre orders and bookings for lots and lots of cars down in the future. ... the market is looking at a time horizon that it has never looked at before, which is making bets that are at 10, 15, 20 years in the future. And that's because of the condition that we're in right now from a monetary policy point of view. Interest rates are so low, there's no where to get yield in other assets.
I don't know anything about this Rivian company, but where I think J. Cal's right is we've seen over and over again that when a company gets, when a startup gets a billion-dollar-plus valuation without a product, invariably, it ends up somewhere between a disappointment and outright fraud.
Rivian, just in defense of Rivian for a second, what I have heard is that it's a it's a well-engineered car or truck rather. They've done a very smart path to market, which is essentially to, you know, build these delivery trucks for Amazon that allowed them to even frankly, you know, be default alive. ... What I have heard from people who were investors in both Lucid and Rivian is that they have sat in the cars, they've driven the cars, they've spent time with them, they've seen the factories, and it's very much real. Now what they're debating is ramp and velocity and scale. I don't know. I don't have a position in either.
Rivian has 17 billion in cash. Somebody asked me at the poker game last night, what I value Rivian at, I said, 17 plus 3, 17 million in cash plus 3 billion, double roughly what Tesla's was the market's hotter right now, whatever. But I put them at 20 billion and people were giving a hard time about it. I said, I think that's actually the realistic valuation for this company. ... No, but the distance between the valuation and reality is in the $50 to $100 billion range.
A different version of this idea, which makes sense, is in autos. Again, trillions of dollars of market cap, and you can make a decision. Do I want to be long? Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian, and short the traditional autos, that could be a trade.