🤖 OpenAI is 2023's biggest winner — Microsoft deal inevitable

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E110 (2023-01-06) · annual_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 24:25 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“My big bet is OpenAI. It's just way too obvious to be anything else this year. ... it's inevitable they're going to get a billion dollar plus investment this year. ... That could be a $300 billion company. That's a 10X.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E110 (2023-01-06) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:30:31 OPPOSE

“They don't have the rights to the data they built the training set on. And the second they commercialize it... they're going to get sued into oblivion. I predict sued into oblivion.”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E110 (2023-01-06) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:28:43 OPPOSE

“unsupervised learning models, if you run them on the same training set, will converge to the same answer. ... to be really defensible, you have to get there in a unique way. ... you think Google is sitting on their hands?”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E111 (2023-01-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 29:39 OPPOSE

“Well, I mean, yeah. So what I'd say is $29 billion for a company that's losing a billion dollars in Azure credits a year.”

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E111 (2023-01-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 29:45 SUPPORT

“That's one way to look at it. That's also a naive way to look at a lot of other businesses that ended up being worth a lot down the road.”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E111 (2023-01-13) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 51:20 SUPPORT

“So to the extent you're going to invest, it makes sense that you put money into OpenAI because that's safe.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E115 (2023-02-11) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 33:01 SUPPORT

“And Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, he is going ham. He looks great. He's fit. He's wearing a tight t-shirt. And he is saying he's going to make Google dance.”

Sacks tech w=0.77 · n=53 · E116 (2023-02-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:08:54 SUPPORT

“I mean, GPT-4 is coming out, I think, in the next several months, and it's supposedly, you know, a huge advancement over version 3 So, I think that a lot of these holes in the capabilities are getting fixed, and the AI is only going one direction, Jason, which is more and more powerful.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E116 (2023-02-17) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:06:33 SUPPORT

“They only released it when Sam Altman in his brilliance got Microsoft to integrate this immediately and see it as a competitive advantage.”

Sacks tech w=0.77 · n=53 · E118 (2023-03-03) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 20:21 SUPPORT

“So I think this is going to be a game changer. I think this is based on the ChatGPT 3.5 API and, of course, coming out with 4 later this year.”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E118 (2023-03-03) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 23:53 SUPPORT

“For OpenAI, the way that it could become a trillion dollar company is actually by cutting the cost to such a low degree that nobody else can effectively compete with it.”

Sacks tech w=0.77 · n=53 · E122 (2023-03-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 26:38 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“However, I actually think that OpenAI has demonstrated now with these platform features that it has a lead, a substantial lead, and I actually think that lead is likely to grow in the next year.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E129 (2023-05-19) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 58:17 SUPPORT

“Oh, that's game over, man. This thing is an app form. That's going to 10x the number of users, and it's going to 10x the amount of usage.”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) tech w=1.41 · n=17 · E133 (2023-06-16) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 47:24 SUPPORT

“I'll just say the number of people I interact with on a global basis who talk about ChatGPT versus BARD is like 10 to 1 today.”

Sacks tech w=0.77 · n=53 · E135 (2023-07-01) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:07:53 OPPOSE

“But they do not want to share their data with OpenAI. That's very clear. They want to roll out their own models.”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E147 (2023-09-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:06:23 SUPPORT

“Sam is the closest thing that we have to an emergent mogul in tech. And the reason is because if everything sits on this substrate, you're going to need to get a license.”