🏛️ Ukraine's position is unsustainable - the front collapses next year

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2024-08-16 → 2025-12-16 — first mention + 16-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT ITA (primary play). ITA rose 46.1% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -46.1% (the call lost money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +24.3% → vs SPY = -46.1 − (+24.3) = -70.4% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
   Direction-only read: -21.8% — did ITA move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+

   · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   ▶ WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Sacks | proxy-sensitive: USO→PARTIAL (+13.3%)

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Sacks 48%

3 scoring events · 100% of moves

+63.3 → net +63.3

⏳ decay drained -43.0 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one