🏛️ Litigation forces the app-store duopoly to open up and cut the 30% rake
Epic's jury win over Google Play puts the mobile app-store tax in play: Sacks and Jason argue the Apple/Google duopoly is an absolute gatekeeper monopoly that keeps ratcheting its rake and has to be controlled by restricting anti-competitive conduct, and that a coordinated industry litigation wave forces open sideloading and third-party stores, compressing a ~$135B/yr high-margin services line. Friedberg and Chamath take the direct other side: Google wins on appeal, the case proves nothing about the body of law, 15% on renewing subscriptions is commercially reasonable, and app-store behaviour does not materially change.
also touching these tickers, same direction: Blue cities ban or license-cap robotaxis 28 (GOOGL) · Tort floodgates open on social media 15 (GOOGL) · ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay 9 (GOOGL) · ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay 9 (AAPL)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2023-12-16 → 2024-12-16 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT AAPL (primary play). AAPL rose 28.8% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -28.8% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +29.8%
→ α = -28.8 − (+29.8) = -58.6%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +1.0% — did AAPL move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg, Jason, Sacks | opposed: Chamath
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-12-16)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | AAPL | stock | PRIMARY | App Store plus services is ~$85B of annual revenue at the highest margin in the company; the closed-iOS rake is the biggest single pool at risk |
| ▼ SHORT | GOOGL | stock | adjacent | the actual defendant - Play Store is ~$50B of revenue, about 17% of Alphabet's total, and the jury verdict targets its billing lock-in |
Mention log
“these app stores are absolute monopolies within their ecosystem and Apple and Google Android are absolutely a duopoly within the mobile space... And so I do think they have to be controlled. And I think Epic is doing the ecosystem a favor.”
“The entire industry should come at them in unison, tons of lawsuits, group lawsuits, until they allow, when you turn on your Apple phone, the ability to load Amazon's app store, Epic's app store, whoever else wants to have an app store.”
“Google's going to appeal. They feel very strongly they'll win an appeal... it's going to be very hard to kind of see a massive change in App Store behavior as a result of this case, even though it's been hyped up to be that”
“I mean, whatever dispute you have with Epic, you don't boot them out of your app store because you don't like their criticism of you. I mean, this is basically proving exactly what everyone's been saying about Apple.”
“at least based on the press coverage, I have yet to see a single smoking gun example coming out of this lawsuit... I'm a little bit doubtful right now that the government's going to be able to win this case”
“I don't think anything is going to happen here because it's taken them five years to file. There's at least a 50% chance that the administration is going to turn over, which means that this lawsuit changes or goes away entirely.”
“Google and Apple don't price fix because Android is an open access system. You can put any application you want, any way you want. There are several app stores to put Android apps on your Android device.”
“these companies will, if you give them an inch, they'll take the mile. And that's exactly what Apple does consistently. They consistently try to squeeze... I think the government's going to win changing three of these.”
“everyone likes to talk about Google, I think the prime candidate is likely to be, and I'm speaking as an individual and as a venture capitalist here, is Apple with the App Store.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -59.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E157 2023-12-16 | init | +42.0 | 42.0 | E157 born by Jason (explicit_prediction x3) |
| E157 2023-12-16 | oppose | -12.1 | 29.9 | E157 Friedberg opposes x3 [w=0.84] |
| E157 2023-12-16 | oppose | -12.2 | 17.7 | E157 Chamath opposes x2 [w=1.02] |
| E157 2023-12-16 | reinforce | +21.5 | 39.2 | E157 Sacks support x3 (new voice) [w=0.97] |
| E158 2023-12-23 | decay | -1.6 | 37.6 | E158 silent |
| E159 2023-12-29 | decay | -1.5 | 36.1 | E159 silent |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -1.4 | 34.6 | E160 silent |
| E161 2024-01-13 | decay | -1.4 | 33.3 | E161 silent |
| E162 2024-01-19 | decay | -1.3 | 31.9 | E162 silent |
| E163 2024-01-26 | decay | -1.3 | 30.6 | E163 silent |
| E164 2024-02-02 | decay | -1.2 | 29.4 | E164 silent |
| E165 2024-02-09 | decay | -1.2 | 28.2 | E165 silent |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -1.1 | 27.1 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -1.1 | 26.0 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -1.0 | 25.0 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | reinforce | +13.0 | 38.0 | E169 Sacks support x3 [w=0.97] |
| E169 2024-03-08 | reinforce | +9.3 | 47.3 | E169 Jason support x2 |
| E169 2024-03-08 | reinforce | +8.1 | 55.4 | E169 Chamath support x2 (flipped from oppose) [w=1.02] |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -2.2 | 53.2 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | oppose | -13.9 | 39.3 | E171 Sacks opposes x3 [w=0.97] |
| E171 2024-03-22 | oppose | -12.2 | 27.0 | E171 Chamath opposes x2 [w=1.02] |
| E171 2024-03-22 | oppose | -12.1 | 15.0 | E171 Friedberg opposes x3 [w=0.84] |
| E171 2024-03-22 | reinforce | +15.3 | 30.3 | E171 Jason support x3 |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -1.2 | 29.1 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -1.2 | 27.9 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -1.1 | 26.8 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -1.1 | 25.7 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -1.0 | 24.7 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -1.0 | 23.7 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -0.9 | 22.7 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -0.9 | 21.8 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -0.9 | 21.0 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -0.8 | 20.1 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -0.8 | 19.3 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | reinforce | +11.7 | 31.0 | E183 Sacks support x2 (flipped from oppose) [w=0.97] |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -1.2 | 29.8 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -1.2 | 28.6 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -1.1 | 27.4 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -1.1 | 26.3 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -1.1 | 25.3 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -1.0 | 24.3 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -1.0 | 23.3 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | reinforce | +7.7 | 31.0 | E191 Friedberg support x1 (flipped from oppose) [w=0.84] |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -1.2 | 29.8 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -1.2 | 28.6 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | reinforce | +8.0 | 36.6 | E194 Reid Hoffman support x2 (new voice) [w=0.50] |
| E194 2024-08-30 | reinforce | +9.2 | 45.8 | E194 Sacks support x2 [w=0.97] |
| E194 2024-08-30 | reinforce | +8.1 | 53.9 | E194 Jason support x2 |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -2.2 | 51.8 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -2.1 | 49.7 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -2.0 | 47.7 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -1.9 | 45.8 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -1.8 | 44.0 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -1.8 | 42.2 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -1.7 | 40.5 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -1.6 | 38.9 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -1.6 | 37.3 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -1.5 | 35.9 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -1.4 | 34.4 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -1.4 | 33.0 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -1.3 | 31.7 | E207 silent |