🏛️ Washington rescues commercial real estate with a structured lending program

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E136 (2023-07-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 42:52 SUPPORT

“I'll make a prediction right now. My prediction is the federal government is going to help to monetize that debt, and they're going to help to support that commercial real estate sector through some sort of structured lending program.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E136 (2023-07-09) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 42:52 OPPOSE

“Do you think there's going to be a TARP-like program for real estate assets and for private... I'll take the other side of that.”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) politics-market w=0.86 · n=7 · E136 (2023-07-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 46:54 OPPOSE

“I just don't think it's that draconian. Rates are not that high.”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E152 (2023-11-03) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 38:31 SUPPORT

“I personally think they're just trying to find more ways to pump money into supporting commercial real estate markets because of the issues we just highlighted. And I think this is the first of what will likely be several programs to support, framed as things like affordable housing, but really designed to support the economic loss impairment that's going to be inevitable at some point.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E152 (2023-11-03) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 36:59 OPPOSE

“So I mostly see this Biden program as symbolic, but the question is whether the symbolism will actually drive better behavior by these blue cities.”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E165 (2024-02-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:12:28 SUPPORT

“And this is where, going back to my speculation a couple months ago, kind of gets revisited, if you're actually talking about a two-third write-down on the value in these funds, most of that being pension funds, you're not going to see governments let that happen. You're going to see the federal government. There's going to be some action at some point... there's going to need to be some sort of structured solution to support retirees and pensioners, because that's ultimately who ends up holding the bag in this massive write-down.”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E165 (2024-02-09) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:26:45 SUPPORT

“I mean, Janet Yellen is going to bail these folks out. That means you won't bail out the banks themselves, but you'll bail out the creditors, obviously. The people holding the bag. They'll get bailed.”