+35.5
net board stance
what this means
248.12
-4.3% · close 2026-09-08
+29% / +42% / -1%
1m / 3m / 12m
-60%
vs SPY since 2024-05-10
85%
of 52w range · -6.3% off high
1/3
hit rate as primary · α -33
Where we stand — 1 live idea
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | flag | eval in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software | ▲ LONG | adjacent ×0.5 | 71.0 | +35.5 | EARLY | 332d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not
Track record on CRM
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 1 partial / 1 miss over 3 closed windows — credit 0.5, average α -33.0. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🤖 Software without real lock-in loses its pricing power to AI-built clones | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | MISS | -17.9% | -41.9 | 2025-01-13 |
| 🤖 SaaS seat contraction — net revenue retention goes below 100% | ▼ SHORT | primary | MISS | -94.1% | -110.8 | 2023-12-03 |
| 🤖 SaaS gets replaced by MaaS — Models as a Service | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | MISS | -51.9% | -68.6 | 2023-12-03 |
| 🤖 SaaS pricing power expands as category winners entrench | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -10.7% | -18.1 | 2022-03-13 |
| 🤖 The software recession is over — net new ARR re-accelerates | ▲ LONG | primary | HIT | +45.0% | +11.1 | 2024-12-08 |
| 🏛️ Microsoft's bundle playbook gets an antitrust remedy | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | MISS | -9.4% | -23.6 | 2025-06-29 |
| 🤖 Bottoms-up SaaS hits a growth wall — only the scaled platforms escape | ▲ LONG | adjacent | HIT | +55.2% | +35.8 | 2023-06-30 |
| 📈 Founder-CEO public companies outperform any index | ▲ LONG | primary | PARTIAL | +13.9% | +0.7 | 2025-05-31 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding CRM, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
I think the horizontal platform companies, these tools that are horizontal, CRM works across many different verticals, industry verticals, and Gmail works across many industry verticals, and Slack, and so on, Excel. No one's going to go rebuild Excel... I think that's how I view the real SaaSpocalypse. It's more of a vertical SaaSpocalypse, which is software that's designed for just one vertical.
I don't know, it was pretty obvious to me in May that Salesforce specifically was meaningfully oversold... the large systems of record, what I said before and what I'll double down on now is that those guys hold an incredibly special place in the ecosystem if they do it right... that's why his net dollar retention is strong, that's why his revenue is strong, that's why he's guiding up and that's why the stocks ripped, I think was like a 43% since I said it had bottomed.
Well, this narrative of the Sass apocalypse was totally overdone. I mean, this whole Sass is dead narrative is just getting shredded today with Salesforce being up over 20 percent. You could go back and look at some of the clips I've been saying now for months. I do not believe that core systems of record like CRM are going to get ripped and replaced with something vibe-coded... Enterprises want certainty, they have compliance, they want professionally managed software that's been running and debugged for years.
the return of a private equity bid for software really changes the investing landscape. ... the rise of open source and the increasing competitiveness of open source is a godsend for the American software industry. It is an absolute godsend.
some of these SaaS companies with great founders who are in it for the long term and ... passionate user bases, I think they will make the jump to AI first products.
It's painting with too broad a brush to say that all of SaaS is going to get obliterated here... Nobody buys Microsoft because Microsoft writes the best code. They buy Microsoft because Microsoft is the rail that everything else runs on... The government is not going to rip and replace Salesforce. Not all SaaS is equal in this dimension.
Well, I try and encourage the teams to build stuff that better meets our needs, and then it can actually be a better solution, and it can be built in-house.
there could be two things occurring here, Chamath and Aaron, at the same time, which is a deflation in legacy systems, and they'll be replaced.
AA
Aaron Levie
oppose ×3
▼ on
🤖 Software without real lock-in loses its pricing power to AI-built clones
E208 · 2024-12-20
▶ 1:11:24
I think we've already seen this, though, and it hasn't exactly played out as you're saying. And so you already have like a Zoho is this really interesting business.
I'm pretty sure that the market here shrinks by an order of magnitude. And instead of fighting over 5 trillion, I think we'll be fighting over 500 billion.
But I think next year, the human language will be the dominant programming language
You don't need to buy SaaS tools. You don't need to have service providers do stuff for you
The AI-first ones, I think, are going to come to it with a totally different cost structure. The idea of paying for seats, and some of these seats are 5,000 per person per year.
So, look, I think that on the whole, I agree with Benioff here that there's more net new opportunity for AI companies, whether they be startups or existing big companies like Salesforce that are trying to do AI, then there is disruption.
The radical idea that I would put out there is I think that systems of record no longer exist because they don't need to.
So why not just watch people use Salesforce or Workday? And those are very expensive products, thousands of dollars per user, right?
I saw the Clarnas story where they said they were going to rip out Salesforce and Workday because they were able to write their own bespoke code using AI. I mean, I have to say I'm a little bit skeptical of that story for a couple of reasons.
And then you run that against that counterfactual, against Workday or Salesforce. And then at some point, you're like, it's the same. And you just turn it off. And you're saving yourself tens or hundreds of millions of dollars.
there are some really great leaders that have run organizations that are already scaled and then taken them to an order of magnitude or two orders of magnitude beyond where they were when they step in.
people figured out that the best-performing companies are indeed the founder-led companies, the ones that keep the founder engaged for a long period of time. They tend to build the most value.
These are all just like a handful of examples of people that have just tacked on collectively trillions of dollars of market cap, way more than all founders added together in most companies, but for one or two.
Well, all the cloud service providers are doing extremely well. I mean, cloud is still the future of software, and the cloud service providers are still growing really strongly.
What's the monopolistic lock-in? The amazing thing about SaaS is that there's no switching cost.
if left unchecked, you will see people abuse this. It is not a big ass to have a la carte pricing and that will make the playing field much, much more competitive.
I don't buy the antitrust arguments on a lot of these cases. I don't think that you're keeping competitive solutions in the market if the benefit of the lower cost product is actually there for the consumer, the customer.