+87.4
net board stance
what this means
610.15
+0.8% · close 2026-11-06
-15% / +3% / -1%
1m / 3m / 12m
-38%
vs SPY since 2025-08-01
34%
of 52w range · -21.5% off high
12/20
hit rate as primary · vs SPY +3
⚠ THE BOARD IS ARGUING WITH ITSELF
— 5 live bullish ideas
(+110.8) against 2 bearish
(-23.4). Net them out; the two expressions cancel each other.
Where All-In Alpha stands — 7 live ideas
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | moved yet? | scored in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🤖 Meta becomes America's open-source AI champion POD DISAGREES | ▲ LONG | primary | 55.4 | +55.4 | RUNNING | 280d |
| 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice POD DISAGREES | ▲ LONG | adjacent ×0.5 | 49.3 | +24.6 | NOT MOVED YET | 323d |
| 🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives POD DISAGREES | ▲ LONG | adjacent ×0.5 | 30.5 | +15.3 | NOT MOVED YET | 308d |
| 🏛️ Tort floodgates open on social media | ▼ SHORT | primary | 20.4 | -20.4 | — | 140d |
| 🤖 Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital POD DISAGREES | ▲ LONG | adjacent ×0.5 | 18.3 | +9.2 | — | 52d |
| 🤖 Meta's AI assistant takes ten points of search share from Google | ▲ LONG | primary | 6.4 | +6.4 | — | 170d |
| 🏛️ Narrow Section 230 carve-out unleashes a tort wave on social platforms POD DISAGREES | ▼ SHORT | primary | 3.0 | -3.0 | — | 87d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. From the
conviction ledger; an idea counts from birth until its window closes. Dots mark episodes
where this ticker's ideas were actually mentioned; a dashed stretch is silence.
Mentioned in the latest episode.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × that idea's direction ON THIS TICKER × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down, unless this ticker is listed as the other side of it. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
scoring dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored result on that date, whether it flatters anyone or not
Track record on META
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 12 hit / 2 partial / 6 miss over 20 closed windows — credit 0.65, average vs SPY +3.3. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding META, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
I believe that Democrats want to create a surveillance and censorship state that's turbocharged by super intelligence. I mean, that's ultimately the end state. How do you get there? You create a department, a federal department of AI. You require that all the so-called frontier models have to be reviewed and approved by that.
I think this is like you're getting into Dr. Doom scenarios. I think you're completely wrong. I think it's like a 1% chance of something crazy like this happens.
And now that is important because Anthropic and OpenAI are in a very fast recursive loop. They're on a 60 to 90 day loop in improving their models. So now all of a sudden, without an infinite amount of supply coming online, you can slow these folks down.
I still think, I could be wrong, but I still think we end up in a place where the government says we want to regulate compute.
And I think actually that this IPO will be very helpful and clarifying on that because, again, once they're seen as a big tech monopoly or part of a huge duopoly, the arguments for giving them regulatory modes- This kind of advantage will go away.
I think that you're going to end up seeing compute get regulated in the future, where compute capacity is going to be assigned by government, and they're going to pass laws to try and do that post-production, that is, like, meaning they're not going to control the chips. They're going to control the actual compute layer, and they're going to determine who's going to get access to what amount of compute.
So you add it all up, and this is a company with over 300 billion of dry powder or it will soon have that. So then you've got all these Anthropic bears who are saying they've made all these CapEx commitments in the future, that they're never going to be able to live up to. Actually, this secures those commitments because they've got the capital now to basically back up all of those compute orders, all the forecasts of CapEx spending till, I don't know, 2030
Amazon has blocked these and subsequently, Grok now will tell you, my Amazon shopping bot says, I can no longer check out for you, but I can put it into your shopping cart, tell me which address, which card you want and I'll tee it all up for you, but I won't hit the buy button. So it's being adjudicated in real time right now and I think that's probably where we wind up.
NI
Nikesh Arora
oppose ×1
▼ on
🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice
E294 · 2026-10-23
▶ 23:11
So I think you see banks saying, do not, I do not allow you to interact with me with your agent period.
BE
Ben Horowitz
support ×3
▲ on
🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives
E293 · 2026-10-17
▶ 1:26:50
Again, zero of those four have been met. We're not on track for any of those four to be met unless something is going on in the big labs that we don't know about.
And he's the doomer. He's the flag-carrying doomer, trying to essentially have what he had the first time around, which is command and control from a global hierarchy.
They're making up scenarios that get a lot of attention. These are fantastical.
They're trying to create a panic. This is their latest panic against open source.
You can go run 50 website searches at the exact same time. And you can short circuit the loop because the software's ability to get that data is faster than the human's ability. So now the loop is go check 50 websites instantly, give me a result right away.
But you look at Amazon blocking agents combined with Shopify saying, let's go for it, or Uber and DoorDash are now letting agents go in there and order your burrito or your car. But there's a whole compression of the commerce layer occurring at the same time of the compression of software that Chamath is talking about, which will lead to massive deflationary cost savings and speed.
someone was describing to me that they in Grok Bot said, save me money. And it just kind of like goes through their inbox, it finds all of these different things, and it went and canceled a couple of subscriptions and it changed their phone plan and all of a sudden, they're saving like a few thousand dollars a year.
But what do we hear about? AI is going to put everyone out of work. Total fake narrative. That was last year's hoax. Now, there's a new hoax about human extinction.
In fact, SI will eat the internet because there's no reason to basically go looking on a website when you can just ask your question to your highly personalized agent or model, and it's going to give you the answer.
And I think that that's really why, to me, this is more bad idea than we need to kind of jump into a regulatory freak out about it.
therefore it becomes very hard and practically impossible to actually regulate the development of the software. That's the truth. It is what it is. You may not like it, but it is what it is.
And you have this solution where the alternative was, hit the pause on trillions of dollars of GDP so that we could sort this out in a multinational body. The alternative was crazy. So I think what happened was historic and important.
And it doesn't require new legislation. It certainly doesn't require some new international agreement. That's never going to happen. So this is something that can be done right away.
So this is got teeth to it. Even though it was voluntary, it has deep, deep hooks into the board of directors.
Shopify, Sacks, added API access to all the Shopify stores there. So this seems like maybe Amazon's making a strategic mistake here by not embracing the tech.
The second thing though is really interesting. Things like Grokbot and Muse really put the App Store and its 30 percent rev share on notice. Why? Because all of a sudden, what you do is you force many of these services to exist headlessly, right?