META

Meta Platforms, Inc.

stock all instruments
+87.4
net board stance what this means
610.15
+0.8% · close 2026-11-06
-15% / +3% / -1%
1m / 3m / 12m
-38%
vs SPY since 2025-08-01
34%
of 52w range · -21.5% off high
12/20
hit rate as primary · vs SPY +3
⚠ THE BOARD IS ARGUING WITH ITSELF — 5 live bullish ideas (+110.8) against 2 bearish (-23.4). Net them out; the two expressions cancel each other.

Where All-In Alpha stands — 7 live ideas

ideacallplayconvictioncontributesmoved yet?scored in
🤖 Meta becomes America's open-source AI champion POD DISAGREES ▲ LONG primary 55.4 +55.4 RUNNING 280d
🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice POD DISAGREES ▲ LONG adjacent ×0.5 49.3 +24.6 NOT MOVED YET 323d
🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives POD DISAGREES ▲ LONG adjacent ×0.5 30.5 +15.3 NOT MOVED YET 308d
🏛️ Tort floodgates open on social media ▼ SHORT primary 20.4 -20.4 — 140d
🤖 Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital POD DISAGREES ▲ LONG adjacent ×0.5 18.3 +9.2 — 52d
🤖 Meta's AI assistant takes ten points of search share from Google ▲ LONG primary 6.4 +6.4 — 170d
🏛️ Narrow Section 230 carve-out unleashes a tort wave on social platforms POD DISAGREES ▼ SHORT primary 3.0 -3.0 — 87d

Where the winds are blowing

NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES — rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. From the conviction ledger; an idea counts from birth until its window closes. Dots mark episodes where this ticker's ideas were actually mentioned; a dashed stretch is silence. Mentioned in the latest episode.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the talk lead the tape or follow it?

Who's pushing which way

each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × that idea's direction ON THIS TICKER × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down, unless this ticker is listed as the other side of it. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means

Brad Gerstner
Brad Gerstner 71% tech guest ×1.0
9 ideas (0 live) · last heard E136
+11
pushes up
Jason
Jason 53% tech
26 ideas (6 live) · last heard E296
+9
pushes up
Aaron Levie
Aaron Levie 67% tech guest ×1.0
2 ideas (1 live) · last heard E208
+4
pushes up
Gavin Baker
Gavin Baker 73% tech guest ×1.0
3 ideas (2 live) · last heard E285
+3
pushes up
Keith Rabois
Keith Rabois guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E207
+3
pushes up
BE
Ben Horowitz guest ×0.5
1 idea (1 live) · last heard E293
+3
pushes up
Mark Pincus
Mark Pincus guest ×0.5
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E211
+2
pushes up
TH
Thomas Laffont guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E212
+2
pushes up
Andrew Schulz
Andrew Schulz guest ×0.5
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E219
+2
pushes up
Friedberg
Friedberg 55% tech
26 ideas (3 live) · last heard E296
+0
neutral
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. guest ×0.5
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E194
-1
pushes down
NI
Nikesh Arora guest ×0.5
1 idea (1 live) · last heard E294
-1
pushes down
Sacks
Sacks 39% tech
29 ideas (5 live) · last heard E296
-2
pushes down
Ryan Petersen
Ryan Petersen guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E82
-2
pushes down
Michael Shellenberger
Michael Shellenberger guest ×0.5
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E109
-2
pushes down
Sam Altman
Sam Altman guest ×0.5
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E178
-2
pushes down
Cyan Banister
Cyan Banister 50% equities guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E210
-2
pushes down
Travis Kalanick
Travis Kalanick 67% tech guest ×1.0
1 idea (1 live) · last heard E235
-2
pushes down
Chamath
Chamath 45% tech
37 ideas (7 live) · last heard E296
-11
pushes down

What resolves next

scoring dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored result on that date, whether it flatters anyone or not

2026-12-29 52d ▲ 🤖 Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital 18
2027-02-02 87d ▼ 🏛️ Narrow Section 230 carve-out unleashes a tort wave on social platforms 3
2027-03-27 140d ▼ 🏛️ Tort floodgates open on social media 20
2027-04-26 170d ▲ 🤖 Meta's AI assistant takes ten points of search share from Google 6
2027-08-14 280d ▲ 🤖 Meta becomes America's open-source AI champion 55
2027-09-11 308d ▲ 🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives 31
2027-09-26 323d ▲ 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice 49

Track record on META

As a PRIMARY play the besties are 12 hit / 2 partial / 6 miss over 20 closed windows — credit 0.65, average vs SPY +3.3. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.

ideacallplayresultreturnvs SPYscored
🤖 Open-source models commoditize the model layer and move to the edge ▲ LONG primary RIGHT +92.3% +64.0 2024-05-19
🏛️ US antitrust is punitive politics, not competition policy - hot-button platforms carry the overhang ▼ SHORT primary WRONG -102.9% -118.8 2023-09-17
🤖 Apple's privacy push blows up the Google/Facebook ad model ▼ SHORT primary RIGHT +50.3% +60.9 2022-06-18
🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention ▲ LONG primary RIGHT +24.0% +10.0 2025-03-08
🤖 Twitter's riff proves big tech is overstaffed - lean-opex reset ahead ▲ LONG primary RIGHT +136.4% +116.1 2023-10-07
🤖 The metaverse/Web3 label is empty hype — Meta's pivot is the loser trade ▼ SHORT primary RIGHT +64.8% +82.1 2022-12-23
🏛️ The four big-tech monopolies get broken up by the end of the decade ▼ SHORT adjacent HALF +2.6% +2.8 2022-05-01
🏛️ Section 230's algorithmic shield gets rolled back - platform liability overhang ▼ SHORT adjacent WRONG -39.4% -59.7 2023-10-07
🤖 Foundation models are a big-tech oligopoly - the substrate gets given away ▲ LONG adjacent RIGHT +63.8% +42.4 2024-01-13
🏛️ Big tech gets regulated as common carriers via a left-right deal ▼ SHORT primary RIGHT +50.3% +60.9 2022-06-18
🤖 Meta's best move is capping the metaverse bet and reallocating to AI ▲ LONG primary RIGHT +173.4% +151.9 2024-01-13
📈 Wall Street earnings estimates are wrong - the E resets, not just the multiple ▼ SHORT adjacent WRONG -24.3% -48.7 2023-12-24
📈 Meta's profit engine plus buybacks makes its AI option value free ▲ LONG primary RIGHT +53.2% +31.8 2025-02-09
🤖 Big tech's growth era ends - cash-cow multiples and cost discipline ▼ SHORT primary WRONG -116.6% -135.0 2023-10-01
🤖 Apple's AR headset becomes the next compute platform ▲ LONG adjacent HALF +9.0% -19.3 2024-05-19
🤖 Enterprises tune and self-host open-source models instead of paying for proprietary APIs ▲ LONG primary HALF +13.1% -26.9 2026-06-14
🏛️ EU's Digital Services Act becomes a binding censorship and compliance regime on the platforms ▼ SHORT adjacent WRONG -20.8% -61.5 2024-10-20
🏛️ TikTok crackdown impairs ByteDance and hands share back to US platforms ▲ LONG primary RIGHT +175.1% +151.4 2024-01-20
🏛️ Structural breakup replaces merger-blocking as the big-tech remedy ▼ SHORT adjacent WRONG -47.7% -74.1 2024-07-14
🤖 Gen Z's creator-career shift is real and monetizable ▲ LONG primary RIGHT +29.2% +10.8 2025-10-25
📈 Meta's fact-checking retreat is a value-maximizing political realignment ▲ LONG primary HALF +7.7% -13.1 2026-01-11
🤖 The streaming churn war's only winners are Google and Meta ▲ LONG adjacent RIGHT +34.4% +8.9 2025-01-19
📈 Activists cannot move founder-controlled big tech above the line ▼ SHORT primary WRONG -218.5% -226.5 2023-10-29
🏛️ Local taxation cracks the big-tech monopolies ▼ SHORT adjacent WRONG -8.9% -3.0 2022-05-22
📈 Founder-CEO public companies outperform any index ▲ LONG adjacent HALF +13.9% +0.7 2025-05-31
🤖 Meta's Project 92 takes Twitter's slot by paying creators and handing back data control ▲ LONG primary RIGHT +79.8% +55.0 2024-06-16
🏛️ Facebook Files become a tobacco-style liability event ▼ SHORT primary RIGHT +58.9% +68.7 2022-09-18
🤖 Social network effects are not moats - the platforms fragment ▼ SHORT primary WRONG -137.9% -150.9 2023-10-22
🏛️ Section 230 moderation mandates are regulatory capture that entrench the incumbents ▲ LONG primary WRONG -23.7% -39.6 2022-03-27
📈 Facebook short: ad boycott + political-ad ban ▼ SHORT primary WRONG -46.6% -87.0 2021-07-11
🤖 The ad duopoly ratchets prices and makes its numbers through the startup bust ▲ LONG adjacent WRONG -25.5% -13.7 2023-03-26

The tape — what was actually said

every capture on any idea holding META, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode

Sacks Sacks reversal ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives E296 · 2026-11-07 ▶ 1:07:42
I believe that Democrats want to create a surveillance and censorship state that's turbocharged by super intelligence. I mean, that's ultimately the end state. How do you get there? You create a department, a federal department of AI. You require that all the so-called frontier models have to be reviewed and approved by that.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives E296 · 2026-11-07 ▶ 1:06:11
I think this is like you're getting into Dr. Doom scenarios. I think you're completely wrong. I think it's like a 1% chance of something crazy like this happens.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital E296 · 2026-11-07 ▶ 57:54
And now that is important because Anthropic and OpenAI are in a very fast recursive loop. They're on a 60 to 90 day loop in improving their models. So now all of a sudden, without an infinite amount of supply coming online, you can slow these folks down.
Friedberg Friedberg oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives E296 · 2026-11-07 ▶ 41:06
I still think, I could be wrong, but I still think we end up in a place where the government says we want to regulate compute.
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives E295 · 2026-10-30 ▶ 1:00:16
And I think actually that this IPO will be very helpful and clarifying on that because, again, once they're seen as a big tech monopoly or part of a huge duopoly, the arguments for giving them regulatory modes- This kind of advantage will go away.
Friedberg Friedberg oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives E295 · 2026-10-30 ▶ 36:48
I think that you're going to end up seeing compute get regulated in the future, where compute capacity is going to be assigned by government, and they're going to pass laws to try and do that post-production, that is, like, meaning they're not going to control the chips. They're going to control the actual compute layer, and they're going to determine who's going to get access to what amount of compute.
Sacks Sacks reversal ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital E295 · 2026-10-30 ▶ 31:19
So you add it all up, and this is a company with over 300 billion of dry powder or it will soon have that. So then you've got all these Anthropic bears who are saying they've made all these CapEx commitments in the future, that they're never going to be able to live up to. Actually, this secures those commitments because they've got the capital now to basically back up all of those compute orders, all the forecasts of CapEx spending till, I don't know, 2030
Jason Jason oppose ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E294 · 2026-10-23 ▶ 30:11
Amazon has blocked these and subsequently, Grok now will tell you, my Amazon shopping bot says, I can no longer check out for you, but I can put it into your shopping cart, tell me which address, which card you want and I'll tee it all up for you, but I won't hit the buy button. So it's being adjudicated in real time right now and I think that's probably where we wind up.
NI Nikesh Arora oppose ×1 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E294 · 2026-10-23 ▶ 23:11
So I think you see banks saying, do not, I do not allow you to interact with me with your agent period.
BE Ben Horowitz support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives E293 · 2026-10-17 ▶ 1:26:50
Again, zero of those four have been met. We're not on track for any of those four to be met unless something is going on in the big labs that we don't know about.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives E293 · 2026-10-17 ▶ 1:24:22
And he's the doomer. He's the flag-carrying doomer, trying to essentially have what he had the first time around, which is command and control from a global hierarchy.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives E293 · 2026-10-17 ▶ 1:11:02
They're making up scenarios that get a lot of attention. These are fantastical.
Sacks Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives E293 · 2026-10-17 ▶ 1:05:38
They're trying to create a panic. This is their latest panic against open source.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×1 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 1:28:06
You can go run 50 website searches at the exact same time. And you can short circuit the loop because the software's ability to get that data is faster than the human's ability. So now the loop is go check 50 websites instantly, give me a result right away.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 1:26:39
But you look at Amazon blocking agents combined with Shopify saying, let's go for it, or Uber and DoorDash are now letting agents go in there and order your burrito or your car. But there's a whole compression of the commerce layer occurring at the same time of the compression of software that Chamath is talking about, which will lead to massive deflationary cost savings and speed.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 1:23:11
someone was describing to me that they in Grok Bot said, save me money. And it just kind of like goes through their inbox, it finds all of these different things, and it went and canceled a couple of subscriptions and it changed their phone plan and all of a sudden, they're saving like a few thousand dollars a year.
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 1:18:55
But what do we hear about? AI is going to put everyone out of work. Total fake narrative. That was last year's hoax. Now, there's a new hoax about human extinction.
Sacks Sacks support ×1 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 1:00:34
In fact, SI will eat the internet because there's no reason to basically go looking on a website when you can just ask your question to your highly personalized agent or model, and it's going to give you the answer.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×1 ▲ on 🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 30:26
And I think that that's really why, to me, this is more bad idea than we need to kind of jump into a regulatory freak out about it.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives E291 · 2026-10-02 ▶ 18:45
therefore it becomes very hard and practically impossible to actually regulate the development of the software. That's the truth. It is what it is. You may not like it, but it is what it is.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives E291 · 2026-10-02 ▶ 10:15
And you have this solution where the alternative was, hit the pause on trillions of dollars of GDP so that we could sort this out in a multinational body. The alternative was crazy. So I think what happened was historic and important.
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives E291 · 2026-10-02 ▶ 6:03
And it doesn't require new legislation. It certainly doesn't require some new international agreement. That's never going to happen. So this is something that can be done right away.
Jason Jason support ×1 ▲ on 🏛️ The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives E291 · 2026-10-02 ▶ 5:44
So this is got teeth to it. Even though it was voluntary, it has deep, deep hooks into the board of directors.
Jason Jason support ×1 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E290 · 2026-09-26 ▶ 1:16:56
Shopify, Sacks, added API access to all the Shopify stores there. So this seems like maybe Amazon's making a strategic mistake here by not embracing the tech.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E290 · 2026-09-26 ▶ 1:13:53
The second thing though is really interesting. Things like Grokbot and Muse really put the App Store and its 30 percent rev share on notice. Why? Because all of a sudden, what you do is you force many of these services to exist headlessly, right?