+22.9
net board stance
what this means
617.23
+0.1% · close 2026-09-08
+4% / +6% / -18%
1m / 3m / 12m
-34%
vs SPY since 2025-05-17
36%
of 52w range · -20.6% off high
12/20
hit rate as primary · α +3
⚠ THE BOARD IS ARGUING WITH ITSELF
— 3 live bullish ideas
(+41.1) against 2 bearish
(-18.2). Net them before sizing; don't hold both expressions.
Where we stand — 5 live ideas
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | flag | eval in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🤖 Meta becomes America's open-source AI champion CONTESTED | ▲ LONG | primary | 26.7 | +26.7 | — | 338d |
| 🏛️ Tort floodgates open on social media | ▼ SHORT | primary | 14.6 | -14.6 | — | 198d |
| 🤖 Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital CONTESTED | ▲ LONG | adjacent ×0.5 | 14.0 | +7.0 | — | 110d |
| 🤖 Meta's AI assistant takes ten points of search share from Google | ▲ LONG | primary | 7.4 | +7.4 | — | 228d |
| 🏛️ Narrow Section 230 carve-out unleashes a tort wave on social platforms CONTESTED | ▼ SHORT | primary | 3.7 | -3.7 | — | 145d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not
Track record on META
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 12 hit / 2 partial / 6 miss over 20 closed windows — credit 0.65, average α +3.3. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding META, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
I might take the under. There is another American hero, ... You might see Nvidia at the open source Frontier.
Go ask MySpace, go ask Snapchat what it's like to have Zuckerberg in the ... He's going to be the open source hero from America. He is going to have the best open source model in the next year. I guarantee it here on the All-In Podcast.
this was the first time where they were able to navigate the Section 230 protections ... the door has been opened and a map has been drawn, ... I expect that this will be a death by a thousand cuts kind of scenario
Being the low cost producer is really going to matter in AI. Because at some level, the amount of tokens you produce is intelligence because of test time compute, you know, post-training reinforcement learning. And so if you can produce those tokens at a lower cost, you'll have a big advantage.
TR
Travis Kalanick
oppose ×2
▲ on
🤖 Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital
E235 · 2025-07-11
▶ 41:09
So you get a bunch of full-on missionary engineers that work twice as hard, and you have a culture that is ultra fierce true seeking, and you don't get caught up in politics, bureaucracy, BS, and you just go for it. And I think that's where... And then you go, wow, scientific breakthrough, scientific method. Like you start winning on truth, and that will start, I believe, that will start to give the product awesomeness of OpenAI a run for its money.
So if he can keep solving the energy problem with solar on one side and batteries and standing up, you know, Colossus 2, 3, 4, 5, he's going to have a massive advantage there
AN
Andrew Schulz
support ×2
▲ on
🤖 Gen Z's creator-career shift is real and monetizable
E219 · 2025-03-15
▶ 1:17:08
So they were losing comics to YouTube because it was more advantageous to put your comedy up on YouTube and build a following and then go sell tickets on the road... Now people are like, I don't even want to do the special because if I put it on YouTube, I can tour for years and really build a fan base. So I have this autonomy.
I think all the pressure right now, I think, is on meta. Because I think meta has to show up with the next iteration of llama that beats and exceeds Gemini, that exceeds R1. And I think that that is going to be crucial for us to have a counterweight to whatever China is going to put out after this.
I do believe the ChatGPT franchise is worth something, but I think enterprise folks, when I talk to them, want the open source product most of all.
I do worry a lot about the precedent being set here with respect to foreign government actions on US companies in their local countries. Imagine the CCP tells Tesla they have to sell their Chinese operations and give 50% of the Chinese operations to the Chinese government because of their concerns about security
But at the end of the day, the president was very clear that it is completely and entirely worthless without his permit, and he wants to own 50% of this asset. Now, if you're a buyer of something, you're not going to pay $100 billion if you control whether it can exist or not. You're basically going to pay today's equivalent of one franc, which would be one dollar.
TH
Thomas Laffont
support ×2
▲ on
🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention
E212 · 2025-01-25
▶ 35:52
But I think you put it all together, you know, is 100 billion a reasonable scenario? ... And then could it be a trillion dollar asset, the way Trump has mentioned? I mean, in a world where Facebook's one and a half, right? And the penetration of TikTok in the US is 50% of what Metta is. I don't think it's unrealistic.
Seems like they're going to strike a deal. Chuck Schumer today is calling for a delay in the ban. I'm sure by the time this episode airs, something will have been worked out to create some space for them to get a deal done. But I think they want to get a deal done and keep TikTok active in the US. Seems like both the Dems and the Republicans are pushing for it.
MA
Mark Pincus
support ×2
▲ on
🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention
E211 · 2025-01-18
▶ 1:09:11
And so I'm, the best outcome, I think, would be forced to divest and sell to another American company. But if that doesn't happen, I'm kind of nervous about a real backlash.
if you think about the two biggest imports from China right now, it's fentanyl and TikTok. They want to make us addicted. They want to impact our society. They want to divide us. This is a massive psyops that's going on. It is a psyops, and it is a spyware, and it's been proven they spied on journalists. These are bad actors. It has to go.
So I do agree with Mark that we have to find a suitable home. And I think that we'll probably find one. And I think that it probably happens under the Trump presidency. And whoever gets their hands on it gets their hands on an incredible asset that they will be able to buy extremely cheaply. Because there is no way that there is a fair market value here deal for that asset.
CY
Cyan Banister
oppose ×2
▲ on
📈 Meta's fact-checking retreat is a value-maximizing political realignment
E210 · 2025-01-11
▶ 1:18:17
I think he's going to have to deal with advertisers next, though. I mean, that's one thing that X doesn't have to deal with as much, and that's going to be the second problem he's going to have is not just the government, but do advertisers want to be next to some of the content that's about to appear.
And when he loses tens of billions of dollars in personal net worth, will he make the same decisions? We'll see. But I can tell you, if Kamala Harris had been voted in, he would double down on censorship instead of taking this position. I think he is terrified of Trump and having his company broken up, and he's doing this strictly to appease Trump, which I think putting Dana White on the board is another signal.
But again, the lens that I would put on this is now the winds are blowing in a different direction. And I do think it's the value maximizing function... But I do think it's the smart value maximizing decision yet again for Facebook shareholders.
Isn't it also the truth that major enterprises, Fortune 500s, 200s, 20 years ago weren't interested in open source, and now that's kind of their default. They want to buy into open source, because they don't want to be locked into a vendor.
AA
Aaron Levie
support ×2
▲ on
🤖 Enterprises tune and self-host open-source models instead of paying for proprietary APIs
E208 · 2024-12-20
▶ 1:06:06
If at any moment you know that Zuck will basically provide an open source model that is at kind of best in class benchmarks and at the frontier, then there is a limit on how much you can charge for the tokens of your hosted model
AA
Aaron Levie
support ×2
▲ on
🤖 Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital
E208 · 2024-12-20
▶ 1:03:53
then it really is a compute game and then maybe a data access game. And that means that there's four or five at scale players that can fund this.
In a capital war, I think the big companies like Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and brands like Elon will always be able to attract effectively infinite capital. And their cost of capital goes to zero, which means they'll be able to win this hardware war.
So if they'll do it to their own people, they would have no problem doing it to an adversary and, ask yourself, if the shareholders care about money, they would be willing to divest, right? No problem. They want to take the company public. So if you won't divest and get off the board as the CCP, it's because you see this as a valuable tool, right?
I said, you have to look at the Pegasus-like equivalent, infiltration of WhatsApp, having been done on TikTok... But there's probably 1,000 to 10,000 to 15,000 people. I do suspect that state actors are smart enough to figure out how to triangulate who.