📈 Fintech is fin, not tech — margins and multiples reckon

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2024-01-26 → 2025-01-26 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT FINX (primary play). FINX rose 36.3% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -36.3% (the call lost money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +26.3% → vs SPY = -36.3 − (+26.3) = -62.6% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
   Direction-only read: -10.0% — did FINX move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+

   · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   ▶ WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Friedberg, Sacks

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Friedberg 43%

1 scoring event · 63% of moves

+42.0 → net +42.0

Chamath 42%

1 scoring event · 19% of moves

+13.1 → net +13.1

Sacks 44%

1 scoring event · 18% of moves

+12.1 → net +12.1

⏳ decay drained -58.1 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one