🏛️ Free community college squeezes the for-profit colleges
Chamath calls the free-community-college plank of Biden's bill 'really disruptive' specifically because it puts a ton of pressure on for-profit colleges — a policy-driven enrollment and pricing squeeze on the listed education names.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 16.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT STRA
expression · bearish politics-market
RIGHT
result · return +13.0% · vs SPY +13.2%
2022-05-01
born 2021-05-01 (E31) → window closed
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-05-01 → 2022-05-01 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT STRA (primary play). STRA fell 13.0% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +13.0% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -0.2%
→ vs SPY = +13.0 − (-0.2) = +13.2%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
Direction-only read: +12.8% — did STRA move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call beat the index outright.
- Rule fired:
▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 13.0, vs SPY 13.2)· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all· WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath | proxy-sensitive: PRDO→PARTIAL (+7.9%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-05-01)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | STRA | stock | PRIMARY | Strategic Education is the largest listed for-profit post-secondary operator most exposed to a free public alternative |
| ▼ SHORT | APEI | stock | adjacent | American Public Education competes directly at the price-sensitive associate/bachelor tier community college would undercut |
| ▼ SHORT | PRDO | stock | adjacent | Perdoceo's Colorado Tech / AIU enrollment is the same non-selective cohort |
Mention log newest first
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -13.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E31 2021-05-01 | init | +16.0 | 16.0 | E31 born by Chamath (sentiment x1) |
| E32 2021-05-13 | decay | -0.6 | 15.4 | E32 silent |
| E33 2021-05-22 | decay | -0.6 | 14.7 | E33 silent |
| E34 2021-05-31 | decay | -0.6 | 14.2 | E34 silent |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -0.6 | 13.6 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -0.5 | 13.0 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -0.5 | 12.5 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -0.5 | 12.0 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -0.5 | 11.5 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -0.5 | 11.1 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -0.4 | 10.6 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -0.4 | 10.2 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -0.4 | 9.8 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -0.4 | 9.4 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -0.4 | 9.0 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -0.3 | 8.3 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -0.3 | 8.0 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -0.3 | 6.5 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.3 | 6.0 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.2 | 5.8 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.2 | 5.5 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.2 | 5.3 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.2 | 5.1 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.2 | 4.9 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.2 | 4.7 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.2 | 4.5 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.2 | 4.3 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.2 | 4.2 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.2 | 4.0 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.2 | 3.8 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.2 | 3.7 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.1 | 3.5 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.1 | 3.4 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.1 | 3.3 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.1 | 3.1 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.1 | 3.0 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.1 | 2.9 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.1 | 2.8 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.1 | 2.7 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.1 | 2.5 | E78 silent |