🤖 Apple launches its own search engine and goes head-to-head with Google
Jason's call, sourced to people around Apple plus his own Mahalo-era pitch into a Jobs-era Apple search project that predated the Eric Schmidt board fallout: Apple builds and ships its own search engine rather than keep renting the Safari default to Google. Brave and DuckDuckGo prove an independent index and search API is now cheap enough to be viable, and the monopoly ruling puts the default-payment arrangement itself in legal jeopardy, so Apple's incentive flips from collecting the traffic-acquisition check to owning search economics. That removes Google's single largest guaranteed distribution channel and turns its most reliable partner into a competitor.
other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay 21 (GOOGL) · Tort floodgates open on social media 20 (GOOGL) · Blue cities ban or license-cap robotaxis 20 (GOOGL) · Meta's AI assistant takes ten points of search share from Google 6 (GOOGL)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-08-16 → 2025-08-16 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT GOOGL (primary play). GOOGL rose 25.7% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -25.7% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +17.5%
→ vs SPY = -25.7 − (+17.5) = -43.2%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
Direction-only read: -8.2% — did GOOGL move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Jason
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-08-16)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | GOOGL | stock | PRIMARY | loses the Safari default and faces a well-capitalized platform-owner competitor in search |
Mention log newest first
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -29.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E192 2024-08-16 | init | +35.0 | 35.0 | E192 born by Jason (explicit_prediction x2) |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -1.4 | 33.6 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -1.3 | 32.3 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -1.3 | 31.0 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -1.2 | 29.7 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -1.2 | 28.5 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -1.1 | 27.4 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -1.1 | 26.3 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -1.1 | 25.2 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -1.0 | 24.2 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -1.0 | 23.3 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -0.9 | 22.3 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -0.9 | 21.4 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -0.8 | 19.8 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -0.8 | 19.0 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -0.8 | 18.2 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -0.7 | 17.5 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -0.5 | 13.1 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E218 silent |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -0.5 | 11.6 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E221 silent |
| E222 2025-04-05 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E222 silent |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E223 silent |
| E224 2025-04-19 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E224 silent |
| E225 2025-04-26 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E225 silent |
| E226 2025-05-02 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E226 silent |
| E227 2025-05-09 | decay | -0.3 | 8.4 | E227 silent |
| E228 2025-05-17 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E228 silent |
| E229 2025-05-24 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E229 silent |
| E231 2025-06-13 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E231 silent |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E233 silent |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -0.3 | 6.0 | E236 silent |
| E237 2025-08-01 | decay | -0.2 | 5.8 | E237 silent |
| E238 2025-08-09 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E238 silent |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -0.2 | 5.4 | E239 silent |