📈 SoftBank survives the Vision Fund blowup - Masa gets to swing again
Contrarian read on the $21B+ Vision Fund quarterly loss: SoftBank is structurally fine and the equity recovers. More than half of the sovereign LP money sits in preferred equity paying a coupon rather than common, SoftBank has already sold down 25% of its Alibaba stake through forwards and derivatives to manage liquidity, and Masa has a fifty-year record of coming back from 99% drawdowns. One more hit, or an Alibaba recovery, closes the gap between the $66B market cap and the underlying assets.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 31.3 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG SFTBY
expression · bullish equities
PARTIAL
outcome · R +6.1% · α +0.5%
2023-08-13
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2022-08-13 → 2023-08-13 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG SFTBY (primary play). SFTBY rose 6.1% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +6.1% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +5.6% → α = +6.1 − (+5.6) = +0.5% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5▶ PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a PARTIAL earn 0.5 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Jason | proxy-sensitive: BABA→MISS (+1.6%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-08-13)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | SFTBY | stock | PRIMARY | SoftBank Group ADR - the direct expression of the 'Masa survives' call |
| ▲ LONG | BABA | stock | adjacent | SoftBank's largest remaining asset; Jason's stated recovery path is Alibaba doubling |
Mention log
Chamath
equities w=0.84 · n=160
· E91 (2022-08-13) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 6:53
SUPPORT
“SoftBank has found a way to sell down 25% of Alibaba, which is no trivial feat for half a trillion dollar company. This guy gets to keep swinging and if he hits it one more time, he'll end up with half a trillion.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -29.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E91 2022-08-13 | init | +16.8 | 16.8 | E91 born by Chamath (sentiment x2) [w=0.84] |
| E91 2022-08-13 | reinforce | +14.6 | 31.3 | E91 Jason support x1 (new voice) [w=0.97] |
| E92 2022-08-20 | decay | -1.3 | 30.1 | E92 silent |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -1.2 | 28.9 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -1.2 | 27.7 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -1.1 | 26.6 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -1.1 | 25.5 | E96 silent |
| E97 2022-09-23 | decay | -1.0 | 24.5 | E97 silent |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -1.0 | 23.5 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -0.9 | 22.6 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -0.9 | 21.7 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -0.9 | 20.8 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -0.8 | 20.0 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E103 silent |
| E105 2022-11-19 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E105 silent |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E106 silent |
| E107 2022-12-10 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E107 silent |
| E108 2022-12-16 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E108 silent |
| E109 2022-12-24 | decay | -0.7 | 15.6 | E109 silent |
| E110 2023-01-06 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E110 silent |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | decay | -0.5 | 12.2 | E115 silent |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E118 silent |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -0.5 | 10.8 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -0.3 | 7.5 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -0.3 | 7.2 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -0.3 | 6.9 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E132 silent |
| E133 2023-06-16 | reinforce | +11.7 | 18.4 | E133 Chamath support x2 [w=0.84] |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -0.7 | 17.6 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -0.7 | 16.9 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -0.7 | 16.2 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | -0.6 | 15.6 | E137 silent |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E139 silent |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E141 silent |