📈 SoftBank survives the Vision Fund blowup - Masa gets to swing again

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2022-08-13 → 2023-08-13 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▲ LONG SFTBY (primary play). SFTBY rose 6.1% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +6.1% (the call made money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +5.6% → vs SPY = +6.1 − (+5.6) = +0.5% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
4. Rule fired:
   · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+

   ▶ HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   · WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a HALF earn 0.5 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Jason | proxy-sensitive: BABA→MISS (+1.6%)

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath 42%

2 scoring events · 70% of moves

+33.9 → net +33.9

Jason 49%

1 scoring event · 30% of moves

+14.4 → net +14.4

⏳ decay drained -32.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one