iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF

and that's when you will see the Federal Reserve step in and lower those interest rates in order to sort of artificially juice the economy

Jason oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏦 A politicized Fed withholds the rate cuts the data justifies E237 · 2025-08-01 ▶ 1:10:13

I think the Fed now is in a position where cutting rates seems like putting kerosene on the fire.

Friedberg oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏦 A politicized Fed withholds the rate cuts the data justifies E237 · 2025-08-01 ▶ 1:08:50

It kind of provides a little bit of the support for the economists that are saying we should keep rates steady because if we are seeing a significant inflationary effect here, it's worth noting that there's something that we need to be thoughtful about.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🏦 A politicized Fed withholds the rate cuts the data justifies E237 · 2025-08-01 ▶ 1:05:20

So why does the Fed not cut? Because at this point, not cutting is the only thing that you can do to slow the Trump administration down going into the midterms, if you wanted to politicize the job.

Friedberg oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏦 A politicized Fed withholds the rate cuts the data justifies E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 8:57

I think what the market is saying is it's not as much about Jerome Powell, and frankly, getting rid of a prudent individual may be more challenging than it is beneficial when the real challenges facing the United States need to be more heartily addressed.

Gavin Baker oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏦 A politicized Fed withholds the rate cuts the data justifies E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 6:46

Firing Powell, I worry that the market only went down 1%. I do think the market would go down quite a bit more if Trump did fire Powell. I think it would be a mistake. I hope he doesn't do it. And you know, there are very sound reasons for the Federal Reserve to be independent.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🏦 A politicized Fed withholds the rate cuts the data justifies E233 · 2025-06-28 ▶ 1:28:30

Rates should not be where they are today. They should be 50 to 100 basis points lower, period. It's categorical.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🏦 A politicized Fed withholds the rate cuts the data justifies E233 · 2025-06-28 ▶ 1:25:06

I think inflation has largely been licked. And it's time to start lowering interest rates. And that will be good for the economy. There's no reason for rates to be as high as they are. It'll also be good in terms of financing our debt.

What if actually AI can increase productivity and regrow GDP faster than expectations, right? And perhaps that's one of the reasons why interest rates might not be quite as high as you might expect, given some of the trends that you guys have talked about.

Do I think the Fed chairman who lives in Chevy Chase is a political actor? Are you serious?

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🏦 A politicized Fed withholds the rate cuts the data justifies E231 · 2025-06-13 ▶ 1:11:11

So now, if you're a pal, you've got PTSD from that whole experience, and you're going to err on the side of not letting inflation come back. I think with inflation down to 2.4%, I think it is time to cut rates, but he's fearful because, again, his incentives are to be a Volcker, not a Burns.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🏦 A politicized Fed withholds the rate cuts the data justifies E231 · 2025-06-13 ▶ 1:07:29

So then you ask yourself, well, hold on a second, if the numerical justification is there, to lower rates and it has all of these other positive externalities for the United States economy, why don't I do it? The only answer is political.

Chamath reversal ×3 ▲ on 🏦 Rates fall to ~2.5% within two years E229 · 2025-05-24 ▶ 8:17

Today, the 10-year is around 4.5 percent. At the rate in which it's escalating since Liberation Day, by the end of this year, we're going to be past 5 percent. The 30-year is on a rate now to get past 6.25, maybe even reach 6.5 percent.

Chamath reversal ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Rates fall to ~2.5% within two years E227 · 2025-05-09 ▶ 25:16

I mean, if we're in a sustained period of four to five percent rates, I mean, we should talk about that at some point, but there's huge implications to the economy if this thing stays where it is, huge.

Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Rates fall to ~2.5% within two years E220 · 2025-03-22 ▶ 1:04:52

About a month ago, the 10-year was at 4.5 percent, and today it's at 4.22 percent. And so in the last month, we've seen rates on the 10-year decline by about a quarter point or about 30 basis points. And so the bond market is giving some kind of opening to the Fed saying, look, we expect that this is going to be deflationary, this is going to be recessionary. We are expecting you to cut rates to the Fed.

Chamath reversal ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Rates fall to ~2.5% within two years E220 · 2025-03-22 ▶ 1:02:36

So I think there's an overcorrection here that's happening, which I think is dangerous. And I think it's going to slow down the pace of cuts, which I think will then create a lot of other pressure in the economy.

Chamath support ×1 ▲ on 🏦 Rates fall to ~2.5% within two years E218 · 2025-03-08 ▶ 1:06:26

We have $10 trillion we need to go out and borrow in the next nine months. And so if we can pay 3%, 3.8%, 4%, we save ourselves trillions of dollars versus if we had to pay 4.5%, 5%, 5.5%.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Rates fall to ~2.5% within two years E217 · 2025-03-01 ▶ 31:56

So we've had some pretty meaningful compression in the 10 year, which I think is really interesting. I think it's very good for Besant and for Trump. And I think I've mentioned this before, but we got to go in and refinance $10 trillion in the next six months. So you could see this thing maybe even get under 4% if we get a good string of data.

The bond markets were going up. The bond bond was going up a lot because people believe that you couldn't stop spending, creating inflation. You see those trading down now as DOGE is starting to take effect. People see it's real.

Friedberg support ×1 ▲ on 🏦 Rates fall to ~2.5% within two years E214 · 2025-02-07 ▶ 1:55

Elon and Besant and others in the administration have echoed, trying to get government deficit below 3% of GDP. That seems to be the economic magical number. And if you can do that, rates drop.

Chamath support ×1 ▲ on 🏦 Rates fall to ~2.5% within two years E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 31:41

Yields contracted by five basis points. You know what the value of that is?

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Rates fall to ~2.5% within two years E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 26:28

So if DOGE, working with the rest of the government, OMB, the Treasury, Congress, executive orders, can now convince the markets that the US financial picture is more sustainable, we'll get credit for that. Interest rates will come down and that will lead to a boom in the economy.

Chamath reversal ×3 ▲ on 🏦 Rates fall to ~2.5% within two years E204 · 2024-11-16 ▶ 18:59

What does 4.5% mean? I mean, if you're going to run 8% of GDP level deficits for the next four or five or six years, you're going to have the 10 year at 7 to 8%. That's just mathematical.

Sacks oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Rates fall to ~2.5% within two years E202 · 2024-11-01 ▶ 19:15

And what we're seeing is that the long rates are not going back down.

Friedberg oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Rates fall to ~2.5% within two years E202 · 2024-11-01 ▶ 7:06

The market is saying we are expecting higher rates for longer.