+94.6
net board stance
what this means
719.22
+0.0% · close 2026-09-08
-0% / +2% / +25%
1m / 3m / 12m
+8%
vs SPY since 2025-05-17
86%
of 52w range · -3.5% off high
1/5
hit rate as primary · α -16
Where we stand — 2 live ideas
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | flag | eval in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left | ▲ LONG | primary | 67.3 | +67.3 | EARLY | 1090d |
| 🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints | ▲ LONG | adjacent ×0.5 | 54.6 | +27.3 | EARLY | 122d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not
Track record on QQQ
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 1 partial / 3 miss over 5 closed windows — credit 0.3, average α -15.7. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding QQQ, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Friedberg
support ×2
▲ on
📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left
E288 · 2026-09-04
▶ 12:08
With the.com boom, it was all like metrics that weren't dollars. What we're seeing now is revenue and profits and growth in revenue and profits that we've never seen before. ... it is all real dollars flowing versus speculative utilization.
Jason
support ×2
▲ on
📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left
E288 · 2026-09-04
▶ 8:56
I think it's 97, 98 ... I do think we are seeing at the late stage a disconnection in reality and valuations, where companies are being given far too much credit.
Sacks
support ×2
▲ on
📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left
E288 · 2026-09-04
▶ 14:50
I'm starting to wonder if this is 1998 or 1999 ... I think it's more 1998 than 1999 because I don't think we've seen the peak yet
Chamath
support ×3
▲ on
📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left
E288 · 2026-09-04
▶ 14:09
I think the thing is we're in the early part of the euphoria ... I don't see this stopping. We're at the beginning of the beginning. I think it's going to be like this for another probably three years.
firms that spent the most on AI actually grew the fastest and they tended to grow their headcount roughly 10% in the two years following the adoption of AI. And entry-level headcount rose even faster, it grew at 12%. ... there's just no data to support this idea that in the present, AI is causing job loss.
I think the market's going to the moon.
The real opportunity with AI is on the revenue side, where suddenly one engineer can do a hundred times or a thousand times what they used to ... people are hiring like crazy. We cannot hire enough people. ... an extra 15 head count to our engineering squads ... everyone's going to realize soon that this is a boom, not a bust.
We just had a blowout jobs report in May, 172,000 new jobs over twice what economists were expecting. Thank you, President Trump. We're seeing hundreds of thousands of new construction jobs, 4.3% unemployment rate at record lows, okay? Even software developers, those jobs are at a three-year high,
We're at the outset of a boom right now caused by bespoke software proliferating throughout the economy and being used by firms that never thought of themselves as tech firms... job postings for software developers are at a three year high, growing 15% year over year... 4.3 percent unemployment... that doesn't even include the blue collar boom... hundreds of thousands of new construction jobs.
I think we have kind of call it 500 days where you just got to be net long. But I think it's literally in the hundreds of days from now, 500, you're going to have to have an important reckoning moment. The people that are paying for all these tokens need to see it in actual benefit.
80% of our exposures or more have been in compute, AI, memory, ... It's hard to imagine a more Goldilocks situation for the United States ... At some point, you just have to acknowledge USA is winning.
I'm generally more risk off right now. And more importantly, I'm waiting for these IPOs so that I can, to be very honest with you, de-lever and get some chips off the table.
the drawdown in this period over Iran was only down about five to seven percent on S&P and Nasdaq. ... if we land the plane on these two things, I think it's off to the races in the market. ... heading into America 250, July 4th, the market could really take off.
We're going to print 6% [GDP]... I agree [that this is the beginning of a new golden age].
we are at the beginning of an economic boom. ... the CapEx for this year that's expected, just from the four leading hyperscalers, is $600 billion, ... a roughly 2% tailwind to GDP growth right there. ... I suspect we'll look back on this time period as the beginning of a new golden age.
[2026 GDP growth?] 4.6%.
we are a coiled spring. Closing the border plus adding productivity lifts through AI ... that will really start to show itself in 26 ... short the US economy here. It is ready to rip. ... asset prices in general, I think will do well.
the Trump boom is going to be the biggest political winner of 2026 ... by June, I predict we will see more rate cuts, possibly 75 to 100 basis points. ... forecast for Q4 GDP just climbed to 5.4%.
My gosh, this short Bitcoin thing has been a bonanza... Is it below 90? It is, right? It's like 87?... Watch out below.
Early in the year... Altimeter was positioned small... By May... we went to kind of extra large positioning and we've been there most of the year. And so now we're back to kind of medium, medium small positioning in the market... There's a pause as we head in over the course of the next couple months.
To be clear, we are very much getting into a phase of risk-off... We will be back firmly in risk-on mode in February, is my suspicion... Bitcoin is about to break through 100,000 to the downside, which I think is a psychological barrier that probably has another 5% or 10% more to run.
Jason
support ×2
▲ on
📈 Recession and an equity rally at the same time, because the Fed cuts
E191 · 2024-08-09
▶ 37:31
so we could have a recession, but the market goes up. So to unpack that, I am with you on that same prediction, because I do think people are addicted to efficiency. They're going to lay people off and earnings are going to keep ripping as these companies become managed so well.
Friedberg
support ×2
▲ on
📈 Recession and an equity rally at the same time, because the Fed cuts
E191 · 2024-08-09
▶ 41:06
But I do think that there's going to be government programs to mitigate the effects, meaning you could see the markets, the equity markets continue to rally on some of the government programs and government activity
Chamath
support ×2
▲ on
📈 Recession and an equity rally at the same time, because the Fed cuts
E191 · 2024-08-09
▶ 37:27
But I also think that there's a pretty decent chance the market will be up.
Sacks
support ×3
▲ on
📈 Recession and an equity rally at the same time, because the Fed cuts
E191 · 2024-08-09
▶ 41:28
The reason why the markets could rally in the midst of a recession is because interest rates get cut. We've already seen that the expectations of rate cuts have now grown substantially. The markets are starting to price in 100 to 150 basis points of rate cuts this year, where before it was more like 25 to 50 basis points. So obviously lower interest rates make stocks go up.