QQQ

Invesco QQQ Trust

etf all instruments
+108.0
net board stance what this means
656.1
+1.4% · close 2026-11-06
-13% / -9% / +8%
1m / 3m / 12m
-1%
vs SPY since 2025-08-01
49%
of 52w range · -13.6% off high
1/5
hit rate as primary · vs SPY -16

Where All-In Alpha stands — 2 live ideas

ideacallplayconvictioncontributesmoved yet?scored in
📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left POD DISAGREES ▲ LONG primary 75.6 +75.6 NOT MOVED YET 1032d
🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints ▲ LONG adjacent ×0.5 64.8 +32.4 NOT MOVED YET 64d

Where the winds are blowing

NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES — rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. From the conviction ledger; an idea counts from birth until its window closes. Dots mark episodes where this ticker's ideas were actually mentioned; a dashed stretch is silence. Mentioned in the latest episode.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the talk lead the tape or follow it?

Who's pushing which way

each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × that idea's direction ON THIS TICKER × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down, unless this ticker is listed as the other side of it. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means

Friedberg
Friedberg 46% macro
11 ideas (2 live) · last heard E295
+10
pushes up
Jason
Jason 49% equities
12 ideas (2 live) · last heard E296
+9
pushes up
Brad Gerstner
Brad Gerstner 50% macro guest ×1.0
10 ideas (1 live) · last heard E272
+6
pushes up
Bill Gurley
Bill Gurley 56% equities guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E81
+2
pushes up
BE
Ben Horowitz guest ×0.5
1 idea (1 live) · last heard E293
+2
pushes up
Chamath
Chamath 42% equities
19 ideas (2 live) · last heard E295
-9
pushes down
Sacks
Sacks 44% equities
17 ideas (2 live) · last heard E296
-18
pushes down

What resolves next

scoring dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored result on that date, whether it flatters anyone or not

2027-01-10 64d ▲ 🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints 65
2029-09-04 1032d ▲ 📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left 76

Track record on QQQ

As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 1 partial / 3 miss over 5 closed windows — credit 0.3, average vs SPY -15.7. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.

ideacallplayresultreturnvs SPYscored
🌍 Soft-landing rally underprices the lag risk ▼ SHORT adjacent WRONG -28.8% -57.5 2024-08-18
📈 Rising rates de-rate high-multiple growth stocks ▼ SHORT adjacent RIGHT +44.9% +30.2 2022-03-06
🏛️ Biden's 39.6% capital gains hike does not become law ▲ LONG adjacent HALF +3.6% +0.0 2022-04-23
🌍 Markets are bottoming now - the Fed breaks something and the Fed put returns ▲ LONG adjacent RIGHT +18.4% +0.0 2023-10-01
🌍 Risk-off window: November to February ▼ SHORT adjacent WRONG -3.2% -6.5 2026-02-07
📈 Hidden hedge-fund leverage forces another wave of equity selling ▼ SHORT adjacent WRONG -12.6% -25.1 2024-11-09
📈 The equity beta trade is done — software back at fair value, alpha only from selection ▼ SHORT adjacent WRONG -20.9% -42.2 2024-08-11
📈 Wall Street earnings estimates are wrong - the E resets, not just the multiple ▼ SHORT adjacent WRONG -24.3% -48.7 2023-12-24
📈 Inflation scare peaks — rebirth of growth by the fall ▲ LONG primary HALF +12.8% +4.0 2021-10-22
📈 Tech drawdown is in the eighth inning - the bottom is close ▲ LONG primary WRONG -19.4% -10.9 2023-01-22
📈 Recession and an equity rally at the same time, because the Fed cuts ▲ LONG adjacent RIGHT +21.0% +0.0 2025-08-09
🌍 Risk-off overhang lifts - equities and high-beta growth rally ▲ LONG adjacent RIGHT +33.1% +0.0 2024-11-03
🤖 Tech has another tough year in 2023 ▼ SHORT primary WRONG -48.6% -71.0 2024-01-06
🤖 Own the top 30% of global tech and hold it five to ten years ▲ LONG primary RIGHT +97.3% +14.2 2026-04-17
📈 Shrinking global equity float lifts prices regardless of fundamentals ▲ LONG adjacent HALF +5.8% +0.0 2025-04-12
🌍 American exceptionalism soars and the economy booms in 2022 ▲ LONG primary WRONG -33.2% -14.8 2022-12-29
🌍 Fed at zero for half a decade — get paid to be long equities ▲ LONG adjacent RIGHT +34.1% +0.0 2021-09-09

The tape — what was actually said

every capture on any idea holding QQQ, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode

Jason Jason support ×1 ▲ on 📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left E296 · 2026-11-07 ▶ 1:18:30
SpaceX, Tesla, I've been buying shares to this whole insanity.
Sacks Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints E296 · 2026-11-07 ▶ 6:07
Then the second thing is that the economy is not that bad. I mean, in fact, it's quite good. Just today, we had a new jobs report. It was a very robust jobs report.
Sacks Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints E295 · 2026-10-30 ▶ 1:16:24
So I think the economy is not a disaster. That is total fake news. We know what the growth rates are. It was 2.5% in the last quarter, and it's tracking at 3.7% right now.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left E295 · 2026-10-30 ▶ 58:44
There's so much growth left here when every single employee has an agent.
Chamath Chamath oppose ×2 ▲ on 📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left E295 · 2026-10-30 ▶ 49:53
The problem is we're trying to buy an AI stock. So many roads lead to downside risk, more than upside risk.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left E295 · 2026-10-30 ▶ 12:53
So I just thought like to me, it was so striking how early we are, but also how incredibly profitable everyone is, which indicates there's quite a bit of productivity being produced across the whole value stack.
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left E295 · 2026-10-30 ▶ 5:52
So number one is that this $80 billion loss number that we've heard so much about, that the media has constantly been pumping and harping on as proof that Anthropic was either a fake business or that we were in this sort of whole bubble. That narrative basically just got completely refuted because it turns out that $80 billion loss is a phantom number.
Jason Jason support ×1 ▲ on 🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints E294 · 2026-10-23 ▶ 1:34:19
Yeah, I agree that he is doing a great job in that, like better than any president I've ever seen in my lifetime in terms of getting the economy rocking.
Chamath Chamath support ×1 ▲ on 🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints E294 · 2026-10-23 ▶ 1:33:24
It pulls through massively increased wages for middle class and skilled labor.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left E294 · 2026-10-23 ▶ 7:00
So if you see startups rush to a technology or rush to a trend and start spending all their VC money on it, it means this little colony of two to 200 person companies have determined, and they're the most nimble, that this is the best solution. So that's a tell that things are going in the right direction.
Chamath Chamath oppose ×2 ▲ on 📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left E294 · 2026-10-23 ▶ 2:28
And so you can't be in a situation where on the one hand, we're talking about breathtaking valuations, but where 75 cents of every dollar is actually just a startup sending it back and forth so that they can mark themselves up. That's, I think, a structural problem.
Jason Jason support ×1 ▲ on 📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left E293 · 2026-10-17 ▶ 25:31
So maybe this is just the market overall saying, hey, let's test this, you know, and maybe there's some indigestion there
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left E293 · 2026-10-17 ▶ 20:11
I would make the argument that this is just volatility, which you're going to get a lot of whenever you're underwriting to multi-trillion-dollar outcomes in the future
BE Ben Horowitz support ×2 ▲ on 📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left E293 · 2026-10-17 ▶ 14:35
He's got supply in a great shortage, which is extremely different than the Internet bubble.
Sacks Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 1:18:55
What has superintelligence created? First of all, people's 401Ks are going up. It's a 3% tailwind to GDP. A million new jobs created, according to the economist already. Productivity goes up, which means that wages and living standards go up. This is a driver right now of nothing but positive economic trends.
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints E291 · 2026-10-02 ▶ 1:04:12
You get the price of diesel down and that'll be the last remaining unlock on inflation. That'll bring rates down and the economy is going to hit, you know, 5% GDP growth.
Jason Jason brush_off ×1 ▲ on 🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints E291 · 2026-10-02 ▶ 58:00
I hate to put a little rain on this hopium parade here, but two important charts as we go into the midterms.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints E291 · 2026-10-02 ▶ 54:41
But I tend to think that we're going to see a little bit more growth than that is expected. I tend to think we're going to probably see a little bit more revision.
Chamath Chamath reversal ×2 ▲ on 🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints E290 · 2026-09-26 ▶ 1:21:55
If you think that you have 3.5% inflation and 5% nominal GDP growth, what you have is 1.5% real. And the problem with that is that AI is probably the majority, if not all of it.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×1 ▲ on 🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints E290 · 2026-09-26 ▶ 20:03
Maybe we are seeing the AI wave under way right now, the productivity wave, the productivity boom.
Sacks Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints E289 · 2026-09-11 ▶ 31:02
There's no evidence of that. Quite the contrary, it's all been job gains.
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left E288 · 2026-09-04 ▶ 14:50
I'm starting to wonder if this is 1998 or 1999 ... I think it's more 1998 than 1999 because I don't think we've seen the peak yet
Chamath Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left E288 · 2026-09-04 ▶ 14:09
I think the thing is we're in the early part of the euphoria ... I don't see this stopping. We're at the beginning of the beginning. I think it's going to be like this for another probably three years.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left E288 · 2026-09-04 ▶ 12:08
With the.com boom, it was all like metrics that weren't dollars. What we're seeing now is revenue and profits and growth in revenue and profits that we've never seen before. ... it is all real dollars flowing versus speculative utilization.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left E288 · 2026-09-04 ▶ 8:56
I think it's 97, 98 ... I do think we are seeing at the late stage a disconnection in reality and valuations, where companies are being given far too much credit.