+108.0
net board stance
what this means
656.1
+1.4% · close 2026-11-06
-13% / -9% / +8%
1m / 3m / 12m
-1%
vs SPY since 2025-08-01
49%
of 52w range · -13.6% off high
1/5
hit rate as primary · vs SPY -16
Where All-In Alpha stands — 2 live ideas
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | moved yet? | scored in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left POD DISAGREES | ▲ LONG | primary | 75.6 | +75.6 | NOT MOVED YET | 1032d |
| 🌍 The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints | ▲ LONG | adjacent ×0.5 | 64.8 | +32.4 | NOT MOVED YET | 64d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. From the
conviction ledger; an idea counts from birth until its window closes. Dots mark episodes
where this ticker's ideas were actually mentioned; a dashed stretch is silence.
Mentioned in the latest episode.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × that idea's direction ON THIS TICKER × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down, unless this ticker is listed as the other side of it. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
scoring dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored result on that date, whether it flatters anyone or not
Track record on QQQ
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 1 partial / 3 miss over 5 closed windows — credit 0.3, average vs SPY -15.7. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding QQQ, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
SpaceX, Tesla, I've been buying shares to this whole insanity.
Then the second thing is that the economy is not that bad. I mean, in fact, it's quite good. Just today, we had a new jobs report. It was a very robust jobs report.
So I think the economy is not a disaster. That is total fake news. We know what the growth rates are. It was 2.5% in the last quarter, and it's tracking at 3.7% right now.
There's so much growth left here when every single employee has an agent.
The problem is we're trying to buy an AI stock. So many roads lead to downside risk, more than upside risk.
So I just thought like to me, it was so striking how early we are, but also how incredibly profitable everyone is, which indicates there's quite a bit of productivity being produced across the whole value stack.
So number one is that this $80 billion loss number that we've heard so much about, that the media has constantly been pumping and harping on as proof that Anthropic was either a fake business or that we were in this sort of whole bubble. That narrative basically just got completely refuted because it turns out that $80 billion loss is a phantom number.
Yeah, I agree that he is doing a great job in that, like better than any president I've ever seen in my lifetime in terms of getting the economy rocking.
It pulls through massively increased wages for middle class and skilled labor.
So if you see startups rush to a technology or rush to a trend and start spending all their VC money on it, it means this little colony of two to 200 person companies have determined, and they're the most nimble, that this is the best solution. So that's a tell that things are going in the right direction.
And so you can't be in a situation where on the one hand, we're talking about breathtaking valuations, but where 75 cents of every dollar is actually just a startup sending it back and forth so that they can mark themselves up. That's, I think, a structural problem.
So maybe this is just the market overall saying, hey, let's test this, you know, and maybe there's some indigestion there
I would make the argument that this is just volatility, which you're going to get a lot of whenever you're underwriting to multi-trillion-dollar outcomes in the future
BE
Ben Horowitz
support ×2
▲ on
📈 It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left
E293 · 2026-10-17
▶ 14:35
He's got supply in a great shortage, which is extremely different than the Internet bubble.
What has superintelligence created? First of all, people's 401Ks are going up. It's a 3% tailwind to GDP. A million new jobs created, according to the economist already. Productivity goes up, which means that wages and living standards go up. This is a driver right now of nothing but positive economic trends.
You get the price of diesel down and that'll be the last remaining unlock on inflation. That'll bring rates down and the economy is going to hit, you know, 5% GDP growth.
I hate to put a little rain on this hopium parade here, but two important charts as we go into the midterms.
But I tend to think that we're going to see a little bit more growth than that is expected. I tend to think we're going to probably see a little bit more revision.
If you think that you have 3.5% inflation and 5% nominal GDP growth, what you have is 1.5% real. And the problem with that is that AI is probably the majority, if not all of it.
Maybe we are seeing the AI wave under way right now, the productivity wave, the productivity boom.
There's no evidence of that. Quite the contrary, it's all been job gains.
I'm starting to wonder if this is 1998 or 1999 ... I think it's more 1998 than 1999 because I don't think we've seen the peak yet
I think the thing is we're in the early part of the euphoria ... I don't see this stopping. We're at the beginning of the beginning. I think it's going to be like this for another probably three years.
With the.com boom, it was all like metrics that weren't dollars. What we're seeing now is revenue and profits and growth in revenue and profits that we've never seen before. ... it is all real dollars flowing versus speculative utilization.
I think it's 97, 98 ... I do think we are seeing at the late stage a disconnection in reality and valuations, where companies are being given far too much credit.