CAT

Caterpillar Inc.

stock all instruments
+25.5
net board stance what this means
824.54
+1.3% · close 2026-09-08
-2% / -10% / +97%
1m / 3m / 12m
+131%
vs SPY since 2025-04-26
63%
of 52w range · -22.4% off high
1/2
hit rate as primary · α +34

Where we stand — 1 live idea

ideacallplayconvictioncontributesflageval in
⚡ Natural gas powers the AI datacenter buildout ▲ LONG adjacent ×0.5 51.0 +25.5 RUNNING 388d

Where the winds are blowing

NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES — rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the talk lead the tape or follow it?

Who's pushing which way

each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means

Chamath
Chamath w=0.84 equities
4 ideas (1 live) · last heard E271
+7
pushes up
Sacks
Sacks w=0.94 energy
2 ideas (1 live) · last heard E285
+3
pushes up
Jason
Jason w=0.97 equities
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E191
+2
pushes up
Gavin Baker
Gavin Baker guest ×1.0
1 idea (1 live) · last heard E285
+2
pushes up
Friedberg
Friedberg w=0.84 politics-market
3 ideas (1 live) · last heard E266
+1
pushes up

What resolves next

kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not

2027-10-03 388d ⚡ Natural gas powers the AI datacenter buildout 51

Track record on CAT

As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 1 partial / 0 miss over 2 closed windows — credit 0.75, average α +33.9. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.

ideacallplayverdictRαclosed
📈 Accelerated depreciation makes capital equipment the hot asset ▲ LONG primary HIT +94.2% +74.2 2026-09-07
🏛️ Ukraine reconstruction is the next contractor and infra-fund windfall ▲ LONG primary PARTIAL +15.5% -6.5 2024-01-27
📈 The real economy is already squeezed while software keeps its pricing power ▼ SHORT adjacent MISS -23.1% -44.2 2025-08-09

The tape — what was actually said

every capture on any idea holding CAT, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode

Gavin Baker Gavin Baker support ×2 ▲ on ⚡ Natural gas powers the AI datacenter buildout E285 · 2026-08-14 ▶ 22:32
We're going to run on natural gas for a while. We have a lot of natural gas in America. It's the greenest carbon fuel... Caterpillar, Cummins, GE Vernova, Siemens Energy — they are all expanding capacity fast... people are taking jet engines off old planes and repurposing them as turbines to power data centers.
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on ⚡ Natural gas powers the AI datacenter buildout E285 · 2026-08-14 ▶ 22:12
The green stuff can't scale in the short term. It's all gas-powered for the new data centers. That's the only way to get the amount of scale that you need in the next year or two.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Accelerated depreciation makes capital equipment the hot asset E271 · 2026-05-01 ▶ 43:30
going to look like this big bulky industrial business in five years. I'm not sure that there's a good valuation case ... to just follow the dollars, like a trillion dollars a year going out of the hyperscalers. Where is it going? Just follow those dollars and buy those companies because those companies are already underpriced.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on ⚡ Natural gas powers the AI datacenter buildout E269 · 2026-04-17 ▶ 39:27
if you look at companies like Bloom Energy, it has gone absolutely straight up vertical nuclear. And the reason is because Bloom has a solution that allows you to use ... instead of waiting for years to get on the grid,
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on ⚡ Natural gas powers the AI datacenter buildout E266 · 2026-03-27 ▶ 35:39
I think businesses like NatGas production [have durability]... I just bought LNG, that Cheniere company... given all the craziness in the Middle East... that's got durability.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Accelerated depreciation makes capital equipment the hot asset E257 · 2026-01-10 ▶ 1:14:43
it's generators. It's Siemens. This is why Siemens stock is through the roof. If all of this capital equipment, ... off 100% in year one, it's creating a massive infrastructure
Sacks Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 📈 Accelerated depreciation makes capital equipment the hot asset E257 · 2026-01-10 ▶ 1:14:11
The category of assets that qualify for accelerated depreciation — capital equipment... there's now 100% accelerated depreciation because of the big beautiful bill... that is making those markets super hot right now. [Strength capped: administration official promoting the tax bill's effects.]
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on ⚡ Natural gas powers the AI datacenter buildout E245 · 2025-10-03 ▶ 54:48
on a five to 10 year time frame, the answer is probably nuclear, ... But nuclear takes at least five years. Within the next five years, it's probably gas, natural gas. But ... there's like a two to three year backlog for
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Accelerated depreciation makes capital equipment the hot asset E242 · 2025-09-07 ▶ 34:54
I am a person that started a business that is building a factory to make batteries in ... after the big, beautiful bill and because of tariffs, it is much easier now for me to underwrite. Why? Because I have 100% depreciation across all my capex. It's a complete changer on the IRR of these projects. ... Same thing for this data center that I'm building in Arizona. ... the underwriting case for putting a ton of money into the United States has changed to the positive
Chamath Chamath oppose ×1 ▼ on 📈 The real economy is already squeezed while software keeps its pricing power E202 · 2024-11-01 ▶ 9:03
And by the way, this is across the board. It wasn't just CPG companies, but Dropbox, as an example, same sort of thing.
Jason Jason oppose ×2 ▼ on 📈 The real economy is already squeezed while software keeps its pricing power E191 · 2024-08-09 ▶ 38:34
Well, but they're also cutting stores and they're cutting things and projects that are inefficient. So I just think there's going to be massive efficiency in all sectors. That's going to be the theme for the next year.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 📈 The real economy is already squeezed while software keeps its pricing power E191 · 2024-08-09 ▶ 40:09
But Friedberg is right. We're in a real serious problem because it's like these systems have remained the way that they had been for a very long time.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 📈 The real economy is already squeezed while software keeps its pricing power E191 · 2024-08-09 ▶ 31:41
I remain highly concerned about many sectors of the economy that are deeply challenged right now, particularly the industrial sectors, manufacturing sectors, the agricultural sectors, but services and software sectors where you can raise prices and you have a nice high margin business, you can continue to grow and look good.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Ukraine reconstruction is the next contractor and infra-fund windfall E113 · 2023-01-27 ▶ 1:15:40
Those are called infrastructure funds. And those infrastructure funds raise hundreds of billions of dollars to make investments, to build new infrastructure in markets that need it and that are willing to pay for it. And it will likely end up being kind of long-term debt assumed by that region to pay to do this work, and the beneficiaries will be the investors and owners of those infrastructure funds.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Ukraine reconstruction is the next contractor and infra-fund windfall E113 · 2023-01-27 ▶ 1:15:24
Well, yeah, where Larry Fink was like, hey, they're going to need three quarters of a trillion dollars of reconstruction support. We saw that play out in Iraq as well, where at first it was the war machine, and then it was the reconstruction machine, and together it was trillions and trillions of dollars.