📈 Archegos unwind stuffs the prime brokers with billions of losses
Bill Hwang's family office ran ~$50B of notional exposure at 5-10x leverage through total-return equity swaps at multiple prime brokers, none of whom could see the others' books. Friedberg's call: the counterparties (Nomura, Credit Suisse, Deutsche, Morgan Stanley, Goldman) eat billions of dollars of uncollateralized losses because there is not enough cash in the account to cover the unwind.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 30.3 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT NMR
expression · bearish equities
HIT
outcome · R +20.5% · α +6.0%
2022-04-01
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-04-01 → 2022-04-01 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT NMR (primary play). NMR fell 20.5% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +20.5% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +14.6%
→ α = +20.5 − (+14.6) = +6.0%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +35.1% — did NMR move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 20.5, α 6.0)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg | proxy-sensitive: DB→MISS (-8.1%); MS→MISS (-14.1%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-04-01)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | NMR | stock | PRIMARY | Nomura ADR — named in the episode (transcript renders it 'Omura') as already warning of ~$2B of losses; most levered listed name to the unwind |
| ▼ SHORT | DB | stock | adjacent | Deutsche Bank named by Chamath as one of the swap counterparties |
| ▼ SHORT | MS | stock | adjacent | Morgan Stanley named as a swap counterparty and one of the block-trade sellers |
Mention log
Friedberg
equities w=0.87 · n=120
· E28 (2021-04-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 26:39
SUPPORT
“No, they're going to lose money. I mean, I think JP Morgan, Omura, these guys are all going to lose billions of dollars because there's not enough cash in the sky's actual account to cover all the losses now.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -25.3 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E28 2021-04-01 | init | +30.3 | 30.3 | E28 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.87] |
| E29 2021-04-17 | decay | -1.2 | 29.1 | E29 silent |
| E30 2021-04-23 | decay | -1.2 | 28.0 | E30 silent |
| E31 2021-05-01 | decay | -1.1 | 26.8 | E31 silent |
| E32 2021-05-13 | decay | -1.1 | 25.8 | E32 silent |
| E33 2021-05-22 | decay | -1.0 | 24.7 | E33 silent |
| E34 2021-05-31 | decay | -1.0 | 23.7 | E34 silent |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -0.9 | 22.8 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -0.9 | 21.9 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -0.9 | 21.0 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -0.8 | 20.2 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -0.8 | 19.4 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -0.8 | 18.6 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -0.7 | 17.8 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -0.7 | 17.1 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -0.7 | 16.4 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -0.7 | 15.8 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -0.6 | 15.2 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -0.6 | 14.5 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -0.6 | 14.0 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -0.6 | 13.4 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -0.5 | 12.9 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -0.5 | 12.4 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.5 | 11.9 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.5 | 11.4 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -0.4 | 10.5 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.4 | 10.1 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.4 | 9.7 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.4 | 9.3 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.4 | 8.6 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.3 | 8.2 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.3 | 7.9 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.3 | 7.6 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.3 | 7.3 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.3 | 7.0 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.3 | 6.7 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.3 | 6.4 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.3 | 6.2 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.2 | 5.9 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.2 | 5.7 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.2 | 5.5 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.2 | 5.2 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.2 | 5.0 | E74 silent |