🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026

Jason rates 50% · n=8 · E291 (2026-10-02) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 58:00 OPPOSE

“If you look at unemployment hasn't changed, it's about the same. And then if you look at inflation, it's still sustained at that high threes, sometimes dipping into four, sometimes as low as 3.2, but never into the twos. And GDP is something that the American people just don't feel.”

Sacks rates 50% · n=13 · E291 (2026-10-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 53:14 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT

“I think actually right now, no one's pricing in the potential for rate cuts here. It's all rate increases. So if we could get some relief there, get rate cuts, I mean, again, the economy is going to rock it even more.”

Friedberg rates 43% · n=15 · E291 (2026-10-02) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 49:27 OPPOSE

“We've seen short-term rates on treasuries climb by 60 basis points. That's a pretty consequential climb. I think we haven't seen a short-term yield this high since going back to 2002”

Friedberg rates 43% · n=15 · E287 (2026-08-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 49:05 OPPOSE

“the inflation problem is fundamentally rooted in government spending. So deficit spending is correlated very nicely with the cost of housing, with the cost of healthcare, with the cost of education, and with the cost of everything else... And so inflation is persistent because what we thought were temporary emergency stimulus measures during COVID very quickly got normalized and became persistent spending cycles... So if the inflation remains high, people's affordability continues to go low.”

Friedberg rates 43% · n=15 · E276 (2026-06-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:06:51 OPPOSE

“there's also the macro point, which is government spending out of control. Inflation out of control. And fundamentally, as things unravel, you have rising rates. So I think we should kind of expect, especially with the Kevin Warsh Fed, I think we could see north of five and a half, six percent overnight rates. It's not unforeseeable.”

Friedberg rates 43% · n=15 · E270 (2026-04-24) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 23:20 SUPPORT

“[Warsh at his Fed-chair hearing] spoke a lot about the deflationary evolution promised by AI... he expects it will drive productivity growth like we've never seen before... the deflationary forces ultimately lead to economic expansion... he does think the overall economic picture is one of deflationary pressure.”

Sacks rates 50% · n=13 · E260 (2026-02-07) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 53:15 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT · horizon 12mo

“Warsh has been consistent for the last year, saying the Fed was taking too long to realize that inflation is falling and that they should be cutting more. So I do think that over the next, say, six months to a year, he's going to want to cut rates.”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) rates: 3 resolved, unproven · E260 (2026-02-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 50:45 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“thinks AI will be very deflationary. And so he's more likely to let the economy run ... inflation has come in below all consensus estimates for two years, ... I happen to think that I would take the over on the number of rate cuts that Warsh is going to give us this year.”

Chamath rates 41% · n=17 · E255 (2025-12-19) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 38:54 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“The other thing in 26 is you get a bunch of tax cuts that kick in. No tax on tips, no tax on overtime. ... Accelerated depreciation. You have big stimulative actions for the United States economy.”

Sacks rates 50% · n=13 · E255 (2025-12-19) · explicit_prediction · strength 1 ▶ 34:27 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT · horizon 12mo

“It looks to me like inflation is rolling over, and that's just about a solved problem... it implies that interest rates are coming down... it seems to me like we're on the cusp of a golden age here... I think we're headed for a gangbusters 2026 — rates are coming down, inflation is coming down, and you're also getting tax cuts going into effect next year.”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) rates: 3 resolved, unproven · E250 (2025-11-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 53:18 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“I actually think you are going to get three to four rate cuts. I actually think you are going to see a re-acceleration of GDP. I ... happen to think that inflation is going to continue rolling over. ... I'll take the under, Jason, with you. And you can have a little side wager.”