📈 SPAC complex busts as the zero-rate synthetic-bond bid dies
SPACs traded as synthetic bonds while rates were zero (redeem at $10 vs a negative-yielding bund). With yields rising that bid disappears, post-announcement pre-de-SPAC deals break $10, holders redeem for cash, and a wave of busted de-SPAC IPOs follows within a month or two.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 35.2 EMBER
EMBER
band
▼ SHORT OPEN
expression · bearish equities
HIT
outcome · R +18.4% · α +7.3%
2021-06-06
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-03-06 → 2021-06-06 — first mention + 3-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT OPEN (primary play). OPEN fell 18.4% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +18.4% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +11.1%
→ α = +18.4 − (+11.1) = +7.3%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +29.5% — did OPEN move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 18.4, α 7.3)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath | proxy-sensitive: CLOV→MISS (-22.4%); SPCE→MISS (-18.3%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-03-06)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | OPEN | stock | PRIMARY | largest liquid de-SPAC (Chamath's IPOB) — high-multiple and rate-sensitive, the cleanest tradeable proxy for the de-SPAC complex |
| ▼ SHORT | CLOV | stock | adjacent | Chamath's IPOC de-SPAC, referenced in this episode, trading near the $10 redemption reference |
| ▼ SHORT | SPCE | stock | adjacent | Chamath's IPOA flagship — the most-watched SPAC sentiment barometer |
Mention log
Chamath
equities w=0.84 · n=160
· E24 (2021-03-06) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 6:22
SUPPORT
· horizon 2mo
“if you look at the companies that have just announced SPAC deals just in the last few days, their stocks have gotten absolutely obliterated and they're right on the knife's edge going into the redemption period. So if you have one or two more months of this where all of a sudden bonds look better and some of these SPACs post-announcement but pre-de-SPACing go through 10 bucks a share, people just redeem for $10 and you'll have a bunch of busted IPOs.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -11.8 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E24 2021-03-06 | init | +35.2 | 35.2 | E24 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.84] |
| E25 2021-03-13 | decay | -1.4 | 33.8 | E25 silent |
| E26 2021-03-20 | decay | -1.4 | 32.4 | E26 silent |
| E27 2021-03-27 | decay | -1.3 | 31.1 | E27 silent |
| E28 2021-04-01 | decay | -1.2 | 29.9 | E28 silent |
| E29 2021-04-17 | decay | -1.2 | 28.7 | E29 silent |
| E30 2021-04-23 | decay | -1.1 | 27.5 | E30 silent |
| E31 2021-05-01 | decay | -1.1 | 26.4 | E31 silent |
| E32 2021-05-13 | decay | -1.1 | 25.4 | E32 silent |
| E33 2021-05-22 | decay | -1.0 | 24.4 | E33 silent |
| E34 2021-05-31 | decay | -1.0 | 23.4 | E34 silent |