🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E181 (2024-05-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:01:02 SUPPORT

“But if there are 50 million people who have now decided to have at least a hedge against the establishment and the traditional financial system, and you are threatening to take that wealth away, I could see how 80% of those folks show up to the ballot box and say, all right, which one of you will just leave me alone?”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E181 (2024-05-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 59:39 SUPPORT

“I think we're going to have a crypto framework and it's worth probably five points in this election.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E181 (2024-05-31) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 58:48 SUPPORT

“And now the crypto people have basically had a political awakening and realized they have to get involved in the political system.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E183 (2024-06-14) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 14:05 SUPPORT

“it's very clear that he was pro-innovation. So he was really supportive of AI in the details that he talked about. He was very supportive of crypto in those details. And he's very much low regulation, low taxation.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E183 (2024-06-14) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 10:58 SUPPORT

“Now they're backing this guy for his policies on war, immigration, crypto and more. This election is referendum on those issues.”

Mark Cuban (guest ×0.5) no politics-market track record · E198 (2024-10-03) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:19:52 SUPPORT

“I've literally talked to Kamala Harris at lunch about this specific topic of regulation through litigation. As a lawyer, she got it immediately and she knows it's a problem. She's even mentioned in one of her speeches that that's something that they're going to deal with.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E204 (2024-11-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 19:22 SUPPORT

“So look, the bottom line here is that I think that we are close to having clear rules of the road codified by Congress, which is what the crypto industry has been asking for. And the days of Gensler terrorizing crypto companies by issuing Wells notices without clarifying what the rules are that he is prosecuting, those days are about to be over. So I think this is why the crypto markets are rallying.”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E204 (2024-11-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 10:41 SUPPORT

“The deregulatory nature on its own benefits markets that have been encumbered by regulatory oversight and regulatory challenges like crypto, finance and fintech. Those types of businesses are clearly going to benefit or expected to benefit significantly by being able to launch products more quickly and have features and ways that they can generate revenue that they might be challenged to do under the current regulatory schemas.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E205 (2024-11-23) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 46:10 BRUSH_OFF

“I think there's many more traditional forms of economic growth that we can have before we need to make ICOs legal and easier.”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E205 (2024-11-23) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 46:04 SUPPORT

“But you're not free to create a token, right? There should be some clear path of regulation for that.”

Joe Lonsdale (regular guest ×1.0) politics-market w=1.00 · n=5 · E206 (2024-12-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 20:58 SUPPORT

“And the reason they're that angry at them is they were purposely not defining the rules in certain cases and then going after people after not having to find it in order to kind of like play a gotcha game. It was very dishonorable. And Paul sees all that and there's no way he's going to allow that”

Keith Rabois (regular guest ×1.0) politics-market: 2 resolved, unproven · E207 (2024-12-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:05:07 SUPPORT

“I think a lot of people had been hesitant to start new crypto companies, and there's a belief and confidence in the new administration, the SEC, etc.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E208 (2024-12-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 14:35 SUPPORT

“But anyways, the point is, if Sacks can really push the adoption of stable coins, number one, and then number two, is to incentivize much, much cheaper transactional rails, then I think he can go to Bitcoin and these other more long-tail crypto projects off of a back of momentum.”

Aaron Levie (regular guest ×1.0) politics-market: 3 resolved, unproven · E208 (2024-12-20) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 16:22 OPPOSE

“But there's like, I don't think you could get 10 crypto people to agree on how you regulate that second category because some people believe I should be able to issue an NFT on anything and I should be able to trade that.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E212 (2025-01-25) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:51:35 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT

“The main thing it does is it forms an internal working group with the goal of making the US the world leader in crypto. ... And the members of this working group are going to be, there's me, there's the head of the SEC, the Secretary of the Treasury, and all the agencies and departments that have an interest in crypto.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E214 (2025-02-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 34:27 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT · horizon 6mo

“This was basically a statement of commitment from the chairs of the four committees that we're going to get legislation done this year, maybe in the next six months. I mean, that's really the goal. And we've never had that before. So that is pretty monumental.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E218 (2025-03-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:57:46 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT

“There is a bill that passed the last Congress in the House, but Biden basically, he didn't veto it, but he basically, he and the Democrats stopped in the Senate, the Democrats did. It was called FIT 21 And it was authored by French Hill, who's now the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. So we expect that he will be introducing a new version of his bill, probably in the next few weeks. I don't think I'm breaking any news by saying this. I think people expect it. And that's going to provide the framework for market structure.”