🤖 Tesla's fleet-data moat wins general autonomy; Cruise and Waymo stay geofenced

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E148 (2023-10-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:05:03 SUPPORT

“So the thing that GM and Cruise don't have, in my opinion, is a path to acquire enough data to be credible. Could they solve a limited set of streets in San Francisco? Yeah. ... I think Tesla is the only one because I think they've acquired and they are acquiring so much training data that for them, they're fine-tuning reasoning.”

Sacks tech w=0.77 · n=53 · E148 (2023-10-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:04:54 SUPPORT

“I mean, not today, but when they get there, which I don't think will be 10 years. I mean, it seems like Tesla is this way ahead of everybody else.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E148 (2023-10-07) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:07:24 SUPPORT

“the point is there's over a million cars recording because when you buy a Tesla, you turn on self-driving. It's in every car and so every car is recording data all the time as opposed to GM. GM doesn't take the time to put the $10,000, $20,000 package.”

Sacks tech w=0.77 · n=53 · E176 (2024-04-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 45:58 SUPPORT

“the advantage Tesla has is they actually have real cars on the road. They have real cars on the road with real driver minutes with drivers using the previous version of FSD and making interventions. So they're constantly getting better. ... I think it's going to be somewhere between one and three companies figure this out.”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E176 (2024-04-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 29:20 SUPPORT

“So if Tesla enters in as the third player in that field and just guts pricing, which I think would make sense for them to do, I think this thing is just gang busters nuclear.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E176 (2024-04-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 38:36 OPPOSE

“I think that vision is five, six, seven years out from having low single digit percentages. ... I think Uber is ultimately going to be the place people go to call up one of 20 different self-driving. I think a lot of people are going to get there at the same time.”

Mark Cuban (guest ×0.5) no tech track record · E198 (2024-10-03) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 2:04:30 OPPOSE

“I have, but I stopped using it just because it terrified me. because it doesn't know what adversarial things it doesn't know. because you know, anything that's adversarial, that has to train on something it's seen, and it's not smart enough to figure out what it hasn't seen and whether or not it's a risk.”