📈 US housing is millions of units short and demand is off the charts
Jason's framing of the other side of the real-estate story: while office sits in massive oversupply with no demand, single-family housing is roughly 7 million units short with demand off the charts, which is an incredible market for developers. Sacks pushes back that residential is not a good market either because financing costs, not vacancy, are the binding constraint.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 34.4 EMBER
EMBER
band · contested
▲ LONG ITB
expression · bullish equities
WRONG
result · return -0.0% · vs SPY -21.4%
2025-02-09
born 2024-02-09 (E165) → window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEA ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it out (ticker view →)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-02-09 → 2025-02-09 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG ITB (primary play). ITB fell 0.0% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -0.0% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +21.4% → vs SPY = -0.0 − (+21.4) = -21.4% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Friedberg, Jason | opposed: Sacks | proxy-sensitive: XHB→PARTIAL (+6.7%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-02-09)
Plays
Mention log newest first
Sacks
equities 44% · n=96
· E165 (2024-02-09) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 1:20:35
OPPOSE
“I keep trying to explain residential is not a great market either because interest rates have spiked up. So there's not a vacancy problem. Multifamily developers are still able to lease the units. They're still able to rent. The problem is their financing costs have shot through the roof.”
Jason
equities 49% · n=105
· E165 (2024-02-09) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 1:20:08
SUPPORT
“Paradoxically, on the other side, we have this incredible market for developers, which is, gosh, there's not enough homes. I think we need 7 million more homes, and the demand is off the charts for homes, yeah?”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -21.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E165 2024-02-09 | init | +20.0 | 20.0 | E165 born by Jason (sentiment x2) |
| E165 2024-02-09 | reinforce | +14.4 | 34.4 | E165 Chamath support x1 (new voice) |
| E165 2024-02-09 | oppose | -12.0 | 22.4 | E165 Sacks opposes x2 |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -0.9 | 21.5 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -0.8 | 19.8 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -0.8 | 19.0 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -0.8 | 18.3 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -0.7 | 17.5 | E171 silent |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -0.7 | 16.2 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -0.5 | 13.2 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -0.5 | 11.7 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -0.4 | 8.4 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -0.3 | 6.9 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -0.3 | 6.1 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -0.2 | 5.8 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -0.2 | 5.4 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -0.2 | 5.2 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -0.2 | 4.9 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -0.2 | 4.7 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -0.2 | 4.6 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -0.2 | 4.4 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -0.2 | 4.2 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -0.2 | 4.0 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -0.2 | 3.9 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -0.2 | 3.7 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -0.1 | 3.6 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | reinforce | +17.4 | 20.9 | E211 Friedberg support x1 (new voice) |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -0.8 | 20.1 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -0.8 | 19.3 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -0.8 | 18.5 | E214 silent |