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🏛️ Wildfire value-at-risk pushes fire-hardened building code national

CoreLogic puts roughly $750B and 1.26 million California homes — plus Colorado, Texas, Oregon and Arizona — at moderate-or-greater wildfire risk, so fire hardening stops being a municipal choice and gets standardized above the city-planner level: non-combustible cladding and roofing, ember-resistant attic venting, no overhangs, hardscaped defensible space, concrete and brick instead of all-wood frame. Makers of non-combustible building products take share from wood-frame and combustible siding.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 50.2 WATCH
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG JHX
expression · bullish politics-market
MISS
outcome · R -31.7% · α -47.7%
2026-01-18
window closed

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2025-01-18 → 2026-01-18 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▲ LONG JHX (primary play). JHX fell 31.7% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -31.7% (the call lost money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +16.0%α = -31.7 − (+16.0) = -47.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
  4. Rule fired:
    · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5
    · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0
    ▶ MISS — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Jason

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-01-18)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▲ LONG JHXstock PRIMARY James Hardie fiber-cement siding is the canonical non-combustible cladding substitute for wood in wildfire zones
▲ LONG EXPstock adjacent Eagle Materials gypsum wallboard and cement; volume gain if code shifts away from all-wood construction
▲ LONG OCstock adjacent Owens Corning roofing and insulation; Class A fire-rated roofing and ember-resistant assemblies

Mention log

Chamath
Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E211 (2025-01-18) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 48:57 SUPPORT
“And then the last chart goes through and it actually does, CoreLogic does an assessment of the value at risk. So in California, it's three quarters of a trillion dollars that are at about 1.26 million homes that are at moderate or great risk of fires. In Colorado, it's about 141 billion. In Texas, it's 88 billion. In Oregon, it's 45 billion. In Arizona, it's 36 billion. The point is that everything you said, Jason, now needs to get scaled out, meaning there needs to be a national level conversation. This can't be a bunch of city planners making code and making laws in a little municipality. Because that problem, what that shows you is we have a multi-trillion-dollar risk to a lot of people in the Western United States specifically around this issue that has to get dealt with by code.”
Jason
Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E211 (2025-01-18) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 47:39 SUPPORT
“they're all wood built, you know, none of this is concrete, none of it's brick. California is all wood, and so they probably should add some regulations about building things that are fireproof, because if you had a hundred homes that were all fireproof and built to withstand this, that would act as a natural break. And if you didn't have as much vegetation, so there's probably a series of things that should be added here in terms of regulations while you're getting rid of some of the ones that are slowing you down.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath
Chamath w=1.02
1 scoring event · 71% of moves
+35.7 → net +35.7
Jason
Jason w=1.00
1 scoring event · 29% of moves
+14.5 → net +14.5

⏳ decay drained -42.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E211 2025-01-18 init +35.7 35.7 E211 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x2) [w=1.02]
E211 2025-01-18 reinforce +14.5 50.2 E211 Jason support x2 (new voice)
E212 2025-01-25 decay -2.0 48.2 E212 silent
E213 2025-01-31 decay -1.9 46.3 E213 silent
E214 2025-02-07 decay -1.9 44.4 E214 silent
E215 2025-02-15 decay -1.8 42.6 E215 silent
E216 2025-02-21 decay -1.7 40.9 E216 silent
E217 2025-03-01 decay -1.6 39.3 E217 silent
E218 2025-03-08 decay -1.6 37.7 E218 silent
E219 2025-03-15 decay -1.5 36.2 E219 silent
E220 2025-03-22 decay -1.4 34.8 E220 silent
E221 2025-03-29 decay -1.4 33.4 E221 silent
E222 2025-04-05 decay -1.3 32.0 E222 silent
E223 2025-04-11 decay -1.3 30.8 E223 silent
E224 2025-04-19 decay -1.2 29.5 E224 silent
E225 2025-04-26 decay -1.2 28.3 E225 silent
E226 2025-05-02 decay -1.1 27.2 E226 silent
E227 2025-05-09 decay -1.1 26.1 E227 silent
E228 2025-05-17 decay -1.0 25.1 E228 silent
E229 2025-05-24 decay -1.0 24.1 E229 silent
E231 2025-06-13 decay -1.0 23.1 E231 silent
E232 2025-06-21 decay -0.9 22.2 E232 silent
E233 2025-06-28 decay -0.9 21.3 E233 silent
E234 2025-07-04 decay -0.9 20.4 E234 silent
E235 2025-07-11 decay -0.8 19.6 E235 silent
E236 2025-07-19 decay -0.8 18.8 E236 silent
E237 2025-08-01 decay -0.8 18.1 E237 silent
E238 2025-08-09 decay -0.7 17.4 E238 silent
E239 2025-08-15 decay -0.7 16.7 E239 silent
E240 2025-08-22 decay -0.7 16.0 E240 silent
E241 2025-08-29 decay -0.6 15.4 E241 silent
E242 2025-09-07 decay -0.6 14.7 E242 silent
E243 2025-09-19 decay -0.6 14.2 E243 silent
E244 2025-09-27 decay -0.6 13.6 E244 silent
E245 2025-10-03 decay -0.5 13.0 E245 silent
E246 2025-10-10 decay -0.5 12.5 E246 silent
E247 2025-10-17 decay -0.5 12.0 E247 silent
E248 2025-10-24 decay -0.5 11.5 E248 silent
E249 2025-10-31 decay -0.5 11.1 E249 silent
E250 2025-11-07 decay -0.4 10.6 E250 silent
E251 2025-11-14 decay -0.4 10.2 E251 silent
E252 2025-11-22 decay -0.4 9.8 E252 silent
E253 2025-12-06 decay -0.4 9.4 E253 silent
E254 2025-12-13 decay -0.4 9.0 E254 silent
E255 2025-12-19 decay -0.4 8.7 E255 silent
E256 2025-12-31 decay -0.3 8.3 E256 silent
E257 2026-01-10 decay -0.3 8.0 E257 silent
E258 2026-01-17 decay -0.3 7.7 E258 silent