🏛️ Wildfire value-at-risk pushes fire-hardened building code national
CoreLogic puts roughly $750B and 1.26 million California homes — plus Colorado, Texas, Oregon and Arizona — at moderate-or-greater wildfire risk, so fire hardening stops being a municipal choice and gets standardized above the city-planner level: non-combustible cladding and roofing, ember-resistant attic venting, no overhangs, hardscaped defensible space, concrete and brick instead of all-wood frame. Makers of non-combustible building products take share from wood-frame and combustible siding.
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2025-01-18 → 2026-01-18 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG JHX (primary play). JHX fell 31.7% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -31.7% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +16.0% → α = -31.7 − (+16.0) = -47.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Jason
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-01-18)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | JHX | stock | PRIMARY | James Hardie fiber-cement siding is the canonical non-combustible cladding substitute for wood in wildfire zones |
| ▲ LONG | EXP | stock | adjacent | Eagle Materials gypsum wallboard and cement; volume gain if code shifts away from all-wood construction |
| ▲ LONG | OC | stock | adjacent | Owens Corning roofing and insulation; Class A fire-rated roofing and ember-resistant assemblies |
Mention log
“And then the last chart goes through and it actually does, CoreLogic does an assessment of the value at risk. So in California, it's three quarters of a trillion dollars that are at about 1.26 million homes that are at moderate or great risk of fires. In Colorado, it's about 141 billion. In Texas, it's 88 billion. In Oregon, it's 45 billion. In Arizona, it's 36 billion. The point is that everything you said, Jason, now needs to get scaled out, meaning there needs to be a national level conversation. This can't be a bunch of city planners making code and making laws in a little municipality. Because that problem, what that shows you is we have a multi-trillion-dollar risk to a lot of people in the Western United States specifically around this issue that has to get dealt with by code.”
“they're all wood built, you know, none of this is concrete, none of it's brick. California is all wood, and so they probably should add some regulations about building things that are fireproof, because if you had a hundred homes that were all fireproof and built to withstand this, that would act as a natural break. And if you didn't have as much vegetation, so there's probably a series of things that should be added here in terms of regulations while you're getting rid of some of the ones that are slowing you down.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -42.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E211 2025-01-18 | init | +35.7 | 35.7 | E211 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x2) [w=1.02] |
| E211 2025-01-18 | reinforce | +14.5 | 50.2 | E211 Jason support x2 (new voice) |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -2.0 | 48.2 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -1.9 | 46.3 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -1.9 | 44.4 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -1.8 | 42.6 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -1.7 | 40.9 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -1.6 | 39.3 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | -1.6 | 37.7 | E218 silent |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -1.5 | 36.2 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -1.4 | 34.8 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | decay | -1.4 | 33.4 | E221 silent |
| E222 2025-04-05 | decay | -1.3 | 32.0 | E222 silent |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -1.3 | 30.8 | E223 silent |
| E224 2025-04-19 | decay | -1.2 | 29.5 | E224 silent |
| E225 2025-04-26 | decay | -1.2 | 28.3 | E225 silent |
| E226 2025-05-02 | decay | -1.1 | 27.2 | E226 silent |
| E227 2025-05-09 | decay | -1.1 | 26.1 | E227 silent |
| E228 2025-05-17 | decay | -1.0 | 25.1 | E228 silent |
| E229 2025-05-24 | decay | -1.0 | 24.1 | E229 silent |
| E231 2025-06-13 | decay | -1.0 | 23.1 | E231 silent |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -0.9 | 22.2 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | decay | -0.9 | 21.3 | E233 silent |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -0.9 | 20.4 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -0.8 | 19.6 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -0.8 | 18.8 | E236 silent |
| E237 2025-08-01 | decay | -0.8 | 18.1 | E237 silent |
| E238 2025-08-09 | decay | -0.7 | 17.4 | E238 silent |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -0.7 | 16.7 | E239 silent |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -0.7 | 16.0 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -0.6 | 15.4 | E241 silent |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -0.6 | 14.7 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -0.6 | 14.2 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -0.6 | 13.6 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -0.5 | 13.0 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | decay | -0.5 | 12.5 | E246 silent |
| E247 2025-10-17 | decay | -0.5 | 12.0 | E247 silent |
| E248 2025-10-24 | decay | -0.5 | 11.5 | E248 silent |
| E249 2025-10-31 | decay | -0.5 | 11.1 | E249 silent |
| E250 2025-11-07 | decay | -0.4 | 10.6 | E250 silent |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -0.4 | 10.2 | E251 silent |
| E252 2025-11-22 | decay | -0.4 | 9.8 | E252 silent |
| E253 2025-12-06 | decay | -0.4 | 9.4 | E253 silent |
| E254 2025-12-13 | decay | -0.4 | 9.0 | E254 silent |
| E255 2025-12-19 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E255 silent |
| E256 2025-12-31 | decay | -0.3 | 8.3 | E256 silent |
| E257 2026-01-10 | decay | -0.3 | 8.0 | E257 silent |
| E258 2026-01-17 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E258 silent |