📈 Zymergen's implosion impairs the whole synthetic-biology cohort
Zymergen withdrawing guidance and losing 70-80% three months after its April IPO reprices the entire synthetic-biology platform cohort: investors now assume these companies never had product-market fit or workable unit economics, and capital drains out of the sector.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 42.0 EMBER
EMBER
band
▼ SHORT CDXS
expression · bearish equities
RIGHT
result · return +65.4% · vs SPY +70.7%
2022-08-06
born 2021-08-06 (E43) → window closed
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-08-06 → 2022-08-06 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT CDXS (primary play). CDXS fell 65.4% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +65.4% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -5.2%
→ vs SPY = +65.4 − (-5.2) = +70.7%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
Direction-only read: +60.2% — did CDXS move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call beat the index outright.
- Rule fired:
▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 65.4, vs SPY 70.7)· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all· WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Friedberg
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-08-06)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | CDXS | stock | PRIMARY | closest listed synbio peer to Zymergen's enzyme/platform-services model — takes the sector's credibility hit directly |
| ▼ SHORT | ARKG | etf | adjacent | genomics/synbio sector basket — the vehicle that absorbs the broad sentiment hit Friedberg describes |
| ▼ SHORT | TWST | stock | adjacent | DNA-synthesis picks-and-shovels supplier; demand depends on synbio platform companies staying funded |
Mention log newest first
Friedberg
equities 43% · n=123
· E89 (2022-07-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:10:18
SUPPORT
“Zymergen being acquired for $300 million comes off of them having raised a total of $1.5 billion of capital from many investors, including SoftBank and then their IPO since they were founded in 2013”
Friedberg
equities 43% · n=123
· E43 (2021-08-06) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 32:12
SUPPORT
“So it's a bit disappointing to see, but it's really going to impact the industry broadly because now people are going to say a lot of synthetic biology companies are smoking mirrors and they're really not there yet. So a lot of folks in the industry are really concerned right now.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -35.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E43 2021-08-06 | init | +42.0 | 42.0 | E43 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x3) |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -1.7 | 40.3 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -1.6 | 38.7 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -1.5 | 37.2 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -1.5 | 35.7 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -1.4 | 34.2 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -1.4 | 32.9 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -1.3 | 31.6 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -1.3 | 30.3 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -1.2 | 29.1 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -1.2 | 27.9 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -1.1 | 26.8 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -1.1 | 25.7 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -1.0 | 24.7 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -1.0 | 23.7 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.9 | 22.8 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.9 | 21.9 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.9 | 21.0 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.8 | 20.1 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.8 | 19.3 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.8 | 18.6 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.7 | 17.8 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.7 | 17.1 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.7 | 16.4 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.7 | 15.8 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.6 | 15.1 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.6 | 14.5 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.6 | 13.9 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.6 | 13.4 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.5 | 12.9 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.5 | 12.3 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.5 | 11.4 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.4 | 10.5 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.4 | 10.1 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -0.4 | 9.7 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -0.4 | 9.3 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -0.3 | 8.2 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -0.3 | 7.9 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -0.3 | 7.6 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | reinforce | +16.6 | 24.2 | E89 Friedberg support x3 |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -1.0 | 23.2 | E90 silent |