🛢️ Carbon permits and carbon tariffs put a real price on emissions

Chamath commodities w=0.80 · n=10 · E42 (2021-07-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 53:32 SUPPORT

“The big thing that none of these folks have gotten to yet, but I think if you look at the laws in Europe, they're going there, is the idea of a carbon tariff. And I think these carbon taxes, if they actually exist properly, will look like a tariff. ... I think that that's where the world is going. And that's probably, David, to your point, it's going to be a really big value unlock because the amount of money that will get both made but also destroyed in that process will be incredible.”

Sacks commodities: 4 resolved, unproven · E42 (2021-07-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 51:37 SUPPORT

“And one of the interesting things that's happening now, I think we should talk about is in Europe, they're creating this new carbon trading plan. I think China is even trying to set up one of these markets. And so they're creating these new marketplaces to trade carbon permits. ... And that's what's really cool about these new tradable permit schemes is they create a buyer for those nets. And I think that's ultimately how we're going to solve this problem of climate change.”

Chamath commodities w=0.80 · n=10 · E54 (2021-11-06) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:22:42 SUPPORT · horizon 120mo

“we're now seriously considering carbon tariffs. ... I think this is the most disruptive thing in the capital markets and geopolitics that can happen in the next 10 or 20 years is an effective carbon tariff, which is to say that when a good or service enters the borders of a country, they will levy some tax that they think represents its drag on the environment. ... Yeah, that's happening. I think that's coming. So I think that, you know, the combination of tariffs and these transfer payments is going to create a real economic incentive for folks to make these kinds of big technological leaps. So I'm pretty bullish on all of that.”

Chamath commodities w=0.80 · n=10 · E74 (2022-04-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:02:40 OPPOSE

“I've spent a lot of time in climate. I know what's measurable and what's not. ... there is no credible way to execute on, David, what you're saying you want. All it's going to do is going to create a bunch of money that flows to consultants that create BS nonsensical reports. ... They're complete fraudulent markets.”

Friedberg commodities w=0.75 · n=8 · E74 (2022-04-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:03:22 OPPOSE

“These carbon markets are absolute BS. Carbon sequestration mechanisms are absolute BS. I mean, none of this stuff is real right now. ... It's all grifters. It's all BS.”

Chamath commodities w=0.80 · n=10 · E86 (2022-07-08) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:06:28 OPPOSE

“So the point is that there are these structural lies that have been baked into the system that they are supported by very shoddy accounting or rules or science.”

Sacks commodities: 4 resolved, unproven · E86 (2022-07-08) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 59:47 SUPPORT

“So what you could do is gradually introduce some sort of permit system, you know, or a tradeable permit system, right, where that would incentivize the creation of these technologies that you're talking about. You want to do it gradually so you don't destroy the livelihoods of these farmers who've been doing it for generations. So that would probably be the approach you'd want to take.”

Friedberg commodities w=0.75 · n=8 · E86 (2022-07-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:00:16 SUPPORT

“By the way, I think that is what is going to happen around the world, is that that sort of cap and trade or taxation system is going to get slowly rolled out for a lot of these externality costs in production and industry and agriculture particularly, because there are technological alternatives, and it will incentivize the switch to those alternatives, because the alternatives will cost less than the taxes.”