AAPL

Apple Inc.

stock all instruments
-12.9
net board stance what this means
342.37
-0.5% · close 2026-11-06
+2% / +9% / +27%
1m / 3m / 12m
+50%
vs SPY since 2025-08-01
93%
of 52w range · -2.0% off high
4/14
hit rate as primary · vs SPY -12
⚠ THE BOARD IS ARGUING WITH ITSELF — 1 live bullish idea (+47.0) against 2 bearish (-59.9). Net them out; the two expressions cancel each other.

Where All-In Alpha stands — 3 live ideas

ideacallplayconvictioncontributesmoved yet?scored in
🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice POD DISAGREES ▼ SHORT primary 49.3 -49.3 NOT MOVED YET 323d
🤖 Apple: the AI dark horse via local models POD DISAGREES ▲ LONG primary 47.0 +47.0 — 203d
🤖 ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay POD DISAGREES ▼ SHORT adjacent ×0.5 21.2 -10.6 — 183d

Where the winds are blowing

NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES — rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. From the conviction ledger; an idea counts from birth until its window closes. Dots mark episodes where this ticker's ideas were actually mentioned; a dashed stretch is silence. Mentioned in the latest episode.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the talk lead the tape or follow it?

Who's pushing which way

each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × that idea's direction ON THIS TICKER × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down, unless this ticker is listed as the other side of it. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means

Jason
Jason 53% tech
18 ideas (3 live) · last heard E296
+10
pushes up
Sacks
Sacks 39% tech
16 ideas (2 live) · last heard E295
+6
pushes up
TH
Thomas Laffont 58% tech guest ×1.0
3 ideas (0 live) · last heard E232
+6
pushes up
Travis Kalanick
Travis Kalanick 67% tech guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E213
+2
pushes up
Friedberg
Friedberg 55% tech
19 ideas (3 live) · last heard E295
+1
pushes up
Gavin Baker
Gavin Baker 73% tech guest ×1.0
3 ideas (0 live) · last heard E238
+1
pushes up
NI
Nikesh Arora guest ×0.5
1 idea (1 live) · last heard E294
+1
pushes up
PH
Philippe Laffont guest ×0.5
1 idea (1 live) · last heard E227
-1
pushes down
Brian Armstrong
Brian Armstrong guest ×0.5
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E77
-2
pushes down
Ben Shapiro
Ben Shapiro 30% equities guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E238
-2
pushes down
Sam Altman
Sam Altman guest ×0.5
2 ideas (0 live) · last heard E178
-4
pushes down
Reid Hoffman
Reid Hoffman guest ×0.5
2 ideas (0 live) · last heard E194
-4
pushes down
Keith Rabois
Keith Rabois guest ×1.0
6 ideas (1 live) · last heard E235
-9
pushes down
Chamath
Chamath 45% tech
22 ideas (3 live) · last heard E295
-23
pushes down

What resolves next

scoring dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored result on that date, whether it flatters anyone or not

2027-05-09 183d ▼ 🤖 ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay 21
2027-05-29 203d ▲ 🤖 Apple: the AI dark horse via local models 47
2027-09-26 323d ▼ 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice 49

Track record on AAPL

As a PRIMARY play the besties are 4 hit / 5 partial / 5 miss over 14 closed windows — credit 0.46, average vs SPY -12.2. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.

ideacallplayresultreturnvs SPYscored
🤖 Open-source models commoditize the model layer and move to the edge ▲ LONG adjacent RIGHT +92.3% +64.0 2024-05-19
📈 Internal political activism degrades big-tech operating results (Apple) ▼ SHORT primary HALF +0.1% +15.5 2022-10-02
🏛️ The four big-tech monopolies get broken up by the end of the decade ▼ SHORT adjacent HALF +2.6% +2.8 2022-05-01
🤖 AI value migrates from apps to the vertically integrated hardware/OS layer ▲ LONG primary HALF +38.2% -1.8 2026-06-14
📈 Peak Apple: a GDP-levered cyclical with no product optionality left ▼ SHORT primary WRONG -40.7% -54.7 2025-03-08
🏛️ Litigation forces the app-store duopoly to open up and cut the 30% rake ▼ SHORT primary WRONG -28.8% -58.6 2024-12-16
🏛️ Antitrust breaks Apple's App Store gatekeeping and 30% take rate ▼ SHORT primary HALF -7.0% +0.2 2022-06-25
🤖 Big tech's growth era ends - cash-cow multiples and cost discipline ▼ SHORT adjacent WRONG -116.6% -135.0 2023-10-01
🤖 Apple's AR headset becomes the next compute platform ▲ LONG primary HALF +9.0% -19.3 2024-05-19
🤖 Smartphone manufacturers slow as consumers skip generations ▼ SHORT primary WRONG -32.7% -59.7 2025-01-06
🤖 Privacy backlash pushes data off the centralized cloud ▲ LONG primary HALF +9.8% -0.5 2023-08-26
📈 Apple has completed the transition from growth company to cash cow and loses the AI cycle ▼ SHORT primary WRONG -48.5% -74.3 2026-06-21
🤖 Big Tech eats Hollywood — the studios' end state ▲ LONG adjacent WRONG -25.3% -25.0 2022-05-31
🤖 Apple relocates US-bound iPhone assembly to India on the stated 18-month timeline ▲ LONG primary RIGHT +64.7% +23.4 2026-10-26
🏛️ Local taxation cracks the big-tech monopolies ▼ SHORT primary WRONG -8.9% -3.0 2022-05-22
🤖 Apple licenses an outside frontier model (Gavin's pick: xAI/Grok) rather than building or bolting one on ▲ LONG primary RIGHT +57.7% +38.2 2026-07-19
🤖 Google defends search by doubling TAC — margin traded for share ▲ LONG adjacent WRONG -57.5% -80.7 2024-02-11
🏛️ Google's search-monopoly remedy is a broad consent decree, not a breakup ▼ SHORT adjacent WRONG -23.7% -44.7 2025-08-09
🤖 Apple makes huge AI gains in 2024 (contrarian) ▲ LONG primary RIGHT +32.7% +5.6 2025-01-06
🤖 Models commoditize — proprietary data is the only AI moat ▲ LONG primary RIGHT +96.7% +18.4 2025-12-03

The tape — what was actually said

every capture on any idea holding AAPL, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode

Jason Jason support ×3 ▲ on 🤖 Apple: the AI dark horse via local models E296 · 2026-11-07 ▶ 1:12:48
And so we're on the verge of ordering everybody a Mac Studio 512K for $20,000, which would mean $400,000 in compute on people's desktops and running local models first
Sacks Sacks oppose ×2 ▼ on 🤖 ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay E295 · 2026-10-30 ▶ 1:11:34
So Google search is still thriving, I think you could say. It's not growing that fast relative to other businesses, but you're not seeing it deteriorate yet.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay E295 · 2026-10-30 ▶ 1:07:49
Because I think if this momentum builds, this idea that this franchise is essentially robbing Peter to pay Paul, pulling money from the future into the present to smooth out earnings, the market will react badly to it. You're seeing it today.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay E295 · 2026-10-30 ▶ 1:03:30
As some people have pointed out, this may largely be driven by a change in the pricing algorithm for ads and how Google is now, in some cases, over earning for those clicks. And over time, advertisers will see that, they'll experience that, they'll reduce spend, they'll attrit some dollars, and it won't look as good of a business.
Jason Jason oppose ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E294 · 2026-10-23 ▶ 30:11
Amazon has blocked these and subsequently, Grok now will tell you, my Amazon shopping bot says, I can no longer check out for you, but I can put it into your shopping cart, tell me which address, which card you want and I'll tee it all up for you, but I won't hit the buy button. So it's being adjudicated in real time right now and I think that's probably where we wind up.
NI Nikesh Arora oppose ×1 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E294 · 2026-10-23 ▶ 23:11
So I think you see banks saying, do not, I do not allow you to interact with me with your agent period.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×1 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 1:28:06
You can go run 50 website searches at the exact same time. And you can short circuit the loop because the software's ability to get that data is faster than the human's ability. So now the loop is go check 50 websites instantly, give me a result right away.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 1:26:39
But you look at Amazon blocking agents combined with Shopify saying, let's go for it, or Uber and DoorDash are now letting agents go in there and order your burrito or your car. But there's a whole compression of the commerce layer occurring at the same time of the compression of software that Chamath is talking about, which will lead to massive deflationary cost savings and speed.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 1:23:11
someone was describing to me that they in Grok Bot said, save me money. And it just kind of like goes through their inbox, it finds all of these different things, and it went and canceled a couple of subscriptions and it changed their phone plan and all of a sudden, they're saving like a few thousand dollars a year.
Sacks Sacks support ×1 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 1:00:34
In fact, SI will eat the internet because there's no reason to basically go looking on a website when you can just ask your question to your highly personalized agent or model, and it's going to give you the answer.
Jason Jason support ×1 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E290 · 2026-09-26 ▶ 1:16:56
Shopify, Sacks, added API access to all the Shopify stores there. So this seems like maybe Amazon's making a strategic mistake here by not embracing the tech.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E290 · 2026-09-26 ▶ 1:13:53
The second thing though is really interesting. Things like Grokbot and Muse really put the App Store and its 30 percent rev share on notice. Why? Because all of a sudden, what you do is you force many of these services to exist headlessly, right?
Jason Jason support ×1 ▲ on 🤖 Apple: the AI dark horse via local models E290 · 2026-09-26 ▶ 24:36
Have you loaded these models on your computer? Because I'm playing with it on my MacBook Pro and it's awesome.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×1 ▲ on 🤖 Apple: the AI dark horse via local models E290 · 2026-09-26 ▶ 20:03
You can have an NVIDIA chip or have a good Mac Studio computer, and you can run this insane model on your desktop computer for free.
Chamath Chamath oppose ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Apple: the AI dark horse via local models E289 · 2026-09-11 ▶ 1:14:53
The problem with local models, just to be clear, okay, whether they're closed or open, is that you need a multiplayer experience, and it needs to be cloud-based.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Apple: the AI dark horse via local models E289 · 2026-09-11 ▶ 1:14:42
I literally just ordered two MacStudio M5s. I just ordered two of these. We're going to be running local models, and we're moving off-clawed for a lot of our sensitive data.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Apple: the AI dark horse via local models E281 · 2026-07-18 ▶ 54:11
M7 Ultra is going to support as much as 1.5 terabytes. ... this is like an opus level model running on your Mac Studio. ... 99% of the workloads on the local Mac Studio. I think Apple is a screaming buy right now. And that's not financial advice, but my Lord, that company could just run the table on AI if they get this right.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Apple: the AI dark horse via local models E275 · 2026-05-29 ▶ 38:32
This is why I think Apple is just the dark horse in this entire race. There is an open source product that can run on this hardware, the M5s, the 48 gigs, 128 gigs, the new Mac Studio coming out with supposedly a terabyte. That changes the whole game.
Friedberg Friedberg oppose ×2 ▼ on 📈 Apple has completed the transition from growth company to cash cow and loses the AI cycle E238 · 2025-08-09 ▶ 1:36:25
I would not count Apple out. There's a system there that's built unlike any other in corporate history.
Ben Shapiro Ben Shapiro support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Apple has completed the transition from growth company to cash cow and loses the AI cycle E238 · 2025-08-09 ▶ 1:34:36
it's been many years since they brought out anything that excites me as a consumer
Gavin Baker Gavin Baker support ×3 ▼ on 📈 Apple has completed the transition from growth company to cash cow and loses the AI cycle E238 · 2025-08-09 ▶ 1:33:38
But I'm just shocked at their inaction. And aptitude and AI, how bad the products are from a user perspective. I mean, they're terrible.
Chamath Chamath oppose ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Models commoditize — proprietary data is the only AI moat E237 · 2025-08-01 ▶ 50:35
Grok 5 and for sure Grok 6 will not use Common Crawl. It will not use the Internet. It'll just be an enormous amount of synthetic data.
Gavin Baker Gavin Baker support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 AI value migrates from apps to the vertically integrated hardware/OS layer E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 37:57
Yeah, the browser is part of distribution-winning championships. Apple has Safari, Google has Chrome, and if you're not going to strike a partnership with one of those distribution channels, you will eventually need to do your own browser, and you can extend that logic all the way. That's why at Google they did a browser, they did a phone.
Gavin Baker Gavin Baker support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Apple licenses an outside frontier model (Gavin's pick: xAI/Grok) rather than building or bolting one on E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 34:48
XAI and Apple are natural partners. There's been a lot of news about Apple thinking about buying Perplexity or McStrawl, but that's just a bandaid. Those companies don't get Apple what they need, and Apple's had an incredible partnership for many years now with Google, that's generating tens of billions of dollars for both companies. I think there is solid industrial logic for partnership.
Keith Rabois Keith Rabois support ×3 ▼ on 📈 Apple has completed the transition from growth company to cash cow and loses the AI cycle E235 · 2025-07-11 ▶ 54:53
And if you continue this failed strategy of Apple, Apple has missed every possible window on AI and continues to miss it. And it has cultural. I think the CEO has challenges. I think culturally, they have challenges. I think they have infrastructure challenges. So it's not an easy fix.