-12.9
net board stance
what this means
342.37
-0.5% · close 2026-11-06
+2% / +9% / +27%
1m / 3m / 12m
+50%
vs SPY since 2025-08-01
93%
of 52w range · -2.0% off high
4/14
hit rate as primary · vs SPY -12
⚠ THE BOARD IS ARGUING WITH ITSELF
— 1 live bullish idea
(+47.0) against 2 bearish
(-59.9). Net them out; the two expressions cancel each other.
Where All-In Alpha stands — 3 live ideas
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | moved yet? | scored in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice POD DISAGREES | ▼ SHORT | primary | 49.3 | -49.3 | NOT MOVED YET | 323d |
| 🤖 Apple: the AI dark horse via local models POD DISAGREES | ▲ LONG | primary | 47.0 | +47.0 | — | 203d |
| 🤖 ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay POD DISAGREES | ▼ SHORT | adjacent ×0.5 | 21.2 | -10.6 | — | 183d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. From the
conviction ledger; an idea counts from birth until its window closes. Dots mark episodes
where this ticker's ideas were actually mentioned; a dashed stretch is silence.
Mentioned in the latest episode.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × that idea's direction ON THIS TICKER × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down, unless this ticker is listed as the other side of it. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
scoring dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored result on that date, whether it flatters anyone or not
Track record on AAPL
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 4 hit / 5 partial / 5 miss over 14 closed windows — credit 0.46, average vs SPY -12.2. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding AAPL, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
And so we're on the verge of ordering everybody a Mac Studio 512K for $20,000, which would mean $400,000 in compute on people's desktops and running local models first
So Google search is still thriving, I think you could say. It's not growing that fast relative to other businesses, but you're not seeing it deteriorate yet.
Because I think if this momentum builds, this idea that this franchise is essentially robbing Peter to pay Paul, pulling money from the future into the present to smooth out earnings, the market will react badly to it. You're seeing it today.
As some people have pointed out, this may largely be driven by a change in the pricing algorithm for ads and how Google is now, in some cases, over earning for those clicks. And over time, advertisers will see that, they'll experience that, they'll reduce spend, they'll attrit some dollars, and it won't look as good of a business.
Amazon has blocked these and subsequently, Grok now will tell you, my Amazon shopping bot says, I can no longer check out for you, but I can put it into your shopping cart, tell me which address, which card you want and I'll tee it all up for you, but I won't hit the buy button. So it's being adjudicated in real time right now and I think that's probably where we wind up.
NI
Nikesh Arora
oppose ×1
▼ on
🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice
E294 · 2026-10-23
▶ 23:11
So I think you see banks saying, do not, I do not allow you to interact with me with your agent period.
You can go run 50 website searches at the exact same time. And you can short circuit the loop because the software's ability to get that data is faster than the human's ability. So now the loop is go check 50 websites instantly, give me a result right away.
But you look at Amazon blocking agents combined with Shopify saying, let's go for it, or Uber and DoorDash are now letting agents go in there and order your burrito or your car. But there's a whole compression of the commerce layer occurring at the same time of the compression of software that Chamath is talking about, which will lead to massive deflationary cost savings and speed.
someone was describing to me that they in Grok Bot said, save me money. And it just kind of like goes through their inbox, it finds all of these different things, and it went and canceled a couple of subscriptions and it changed their phone plan and all of a sudden, they're saving like a few thousand dollars a year.
In fact, SI will eat the internet because there's no reason to basically go looking on a website when you can just ask your question to your highly personalized agent or model, and it's going to give you the answer.
Shopify, Sacks, added API access to all the Shopify stores there. So this seems like maybe Amazon's making a strategic mistake here by not embracing the tech.
The second thing though is really interesting. Things like Grokbot and Muse really put the App Store and its 30 percent rev share on notice. Why? Because all of a sudden, what you do is you force many of these services to exist headlessly, right?
Have you loaded these models on your computer? Because I'm playing with it on my MacBook Pro and it's awesome.
You can have an NVIDIA chip or have a good Mac Studio computer, and you can run this insane model on your desktop computer for free.
The problem with local models, just to be clear, okay, whether they're closed or open, is that you need a multiplayer experience, and it needs to be cloud-based.
I literally just ordered two MacStudio M5s. I just ordered two of these. We're going to be running local models, and we're moving off-clawed for a lot of our sensitive data.
M7 Ultra is going to support as much as 1.5 terabytes. ... this is like an opus level model running on your Mac Studio. ... 99% of the workloads on the local Mac Studio. I think Apple is a screaming buy right now. And that's not financial advice, but my Lord, that company could just run the table on AI if they get this right.
This is why I think Apple is just the dark horse in this entire race. There is an open source product that can run on this hardware, the M5s, the 48 gigs, 128 gigs, the new Mac Studio coming out with supposedly a terabyte. That changes the whole game.
I would not count Apple out. There's a system there that's built unlike any other in corporate history.
it's been many years since they brought out anything that excites me as a consumer
But I'm just shocked at their inaction. And aptitude and AI, how bad the products are from a user perspective. I mean, they're terrible.
Grok 5 and for sure Grok 6 will not use Common Crawl. It will not use the Internet. It'll just be an enormous amount of synthetic data.
Yeah, the browser is part of distribution-winning championships. Apple has Safari, Google has Chrome, and if you're not going to strike a partnership with one of those distribution channels, you will eventually need to do your own browser, and you can extend that logic all the way. That's why at Google they did a browser, they did a phone.
XAI and Apple are natural partners. There's been a lot of news about Apple thinking about buying Perplexity or McStrawl, but that's just a bandaid. Those companies don't get Apple what they need, and Apple's had an incredible partnership for many years now with Google, that's generating tens of billions of dollars for both companies. I think there is solid industrial logic for partnership.
And if you continue this failed strategy of Apple, Apple has missed every possible window on AI and continues to miss it. And it has cultural. I think the CEO has challenges. I think culturally, they have challenges. I think they have infrastructure challenges. So it's not an easy fix.