🌍 Trump's endgame: let equities crack to refinance $10T of debt

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E218 (2025-03-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:06:02 SUPPORT · horizon 9mo

“Well, if we are incentivized, if the government of America is incentivized to implement policies that crack the equity markets, it's actually really good in some ways. Number one is, if you deflate asset prices, you also deflate inflation.”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E218 (2025-03-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:13:21 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“I do think that he is aware, and I would imagine the administration generally with Besant and others in kind of key leadership positions are trying to make the case that if we can get rates down, we have an opportunity to kind of refinance this $10 trillion that's coming due in the next 12 months and get ourselves into a kind of more sustainable financing position.”

Joe Lonsdale (regular guest ×1.0) macro: 2 resolved, unproven · E218 (2025-03-08) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:10:55 SUPPORT

“So I think disinflation is very important, and I think we have to find some way to get there. Chamath may be right that it's worth hitting assets to get to disinflation, that's something that Scott could be working on because of all the debt”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E218 (2025-03-08) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:05:53 OPPOSE

“Trump has just said he's not looking at the stock market. I'm not sure I believe that, but okay.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E222 (2025-04-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 50:24 SUPPORT · horizon 9mo

“And then three, which is the other thing that we've been talking about a lot is, where does this move our practical financing cost? What is this, right? We've talked about this. We have $6 trillion we need to finance in the next nine months. So the singular goal, in my opinion, of the White House has been move the tenure as aggressively and as quickly as possible. And look what they've done. As of yesterday, it's unbelievable what's happened in the 10-year. You know, you are kissing 4 percent.”

Larry Summers (guest ×0.5) no macro track record · E223 (2025-04-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 5:12 OPPOSE

“For serious countries, for the United States, the pattern is that when the world gets riskier, the bonds go down in yield and the currency goes up in value, because people come for the safe haven. When you're a country like Argentina, then the assets all move together. Falling stock prices go with higher bond yields, go with a weakening currency.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E223 (2025-04-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 16:14 SUPPORT

“In the last two days, we saw one part of the bond market totally get out of whack. And what we know is that the yields changed materially in a very acute way, which is atypical of how the bond market typically digests a philosophical change in approach to policy. Normally, when you see an acute reaction in the bond market, the underlying reason tends to be some financial calamity in a participant. What we heard in the last 24 hours is a lot of this move may have been attributed to an enormous levered bet on US treasuries by a Japanese hedge fund.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E225 (2025-04-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 2:42 SUPPORT

“So the question is, is there a put here? I mean, my honest answer is no. And the simple reason is, if you look at where we are, the stock market is back to where we were in like May or August of last year. And if you had said that we would have upended 50 years of economic policy and the markets would only be off 500 or 600 basis points, I would have been shocked. So there's no reason for a put.”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E225 (2025-04-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 5:53 OPPOSE

“It was the fact that everyone realized that Bessent, Trump are not going to let trade come to a standstill. They're not going to let the whole global economy grind to a halt. That they're going to have to do something. And I think that the read is that they're making the indications that they're going to get deals done, which means that their intention is to make sure that the market doesn't tank.”

Philippe Laffont (guest ×0.5) no macro track record · E227 (2025-05-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 13:15 OPPOSE

“when the market did go down a lot, the government did budge and said, hey, we need to step in here.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E229 (2025-05-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 31:47 REVERSAL · horizon 3mo

“I think what's going to happen is the bond market will sensitize this budget at real rates. They're not going to use the 3.6 that Friedberg pointed to. They're just going to re-underwrite this at five, five and a quarter, five and a half. That is a very different risk exposure, I think.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E233 (2025-06-28) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 14:01 REVERSAL

“Economically, at the same time, you now have the stock market back at all-time highs. You have interest rates incredibly starting to compress, even in the absence of the Federal Reserve willing to act on data. You're projecting economic supremacy.”

Gavin Baker (regular guest ×1.0) macro: 2 resolved, unproven · E236 (2025-07-19) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 3:06 OPPOSE

“there was maybe three months where Trump said he did not care about the stock market. But now he's back to quoting the market at all time highs. Yes. He clearly cares and is clearly very sensitive to market feedback.”

Gavin Baker (regular guest ×1.0) macro: 2 resolved, unproven · E238 (2025-08-09) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:23:44 OPPOSE

“I am inclined to think that he is much more sensitive to the market than he lets on.”