📈 Palantir's government/intelligence franchise is a good investment
Sacks discloses he owns Palantir and calls it a good investment on the back of the very thing critics use against it — that it sells deep into the national-security state. Bullish PLTR as a sole-source government software franchise.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 38.1 EMBER
EMBER
band
▲ LONG PLTR
expression · bullish equities
HIT
outcome · R +484.2% · α +465.8%
2025-07-26
window closed
also touching these tickers, same direction: Palantir's premium is justified — the short loses 16 (PLTR)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-07-26 → 2025-07-26 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG PLTR (primary play). PLTR rose 484.2% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +484.2% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +18.5% → α = +484.2 − (+18.5) = +465.8% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 484.2, α 465.8)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Cyan Banister, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-07-26)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | PLTR | stock | PRIMARY | the disclosed position |
Mention log
CY
Cyan Banister
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities w=1.00 · n=5
· E220 (2025-03-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 38:18
SUPPORT
“I think that the government has long relied on private industry to solve some of its biggest problems, and that's what sets us apart from other countries in the world. And so you look at some of the best companies like SpaceX, Andoril, etc. We need more companies like this if we're going to compete. And so doing this absolutely makes sense, and it's just going to help the sales cycle to get that sort of stamp of approval that our government is using that software.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -43.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E189 2024-07-26 | init | +21.2 | 21.2 | E189 born by Sacks (positioning x1) [w=0.89] |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -0.8 | 20.4 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -0.8 | 19.6 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -0.8 | 18.8 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -0.8 | 18.0 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -0.7 | 17.3 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -0.7 | 16.0 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | reinforce | +11.2 | 27.1 | E197 Sacks support x2 [w=0.89] |
| E197 2024-09-27 | reinforce | +11.0 | 38.1 | E197 Chamath support x1 (new voice) [w=0.84] |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -1.5 | 36.6 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -1.5 | 35.1 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -1.4 | 33.7 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -1.3 | 32.4 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -1.3 | 31.1 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -1.2 | 29.8 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -1.2 | 28.6 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -1.1 | 27.5 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -1.1 | 26.4 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -1.1 | 25.3 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -1.0 | 24.3 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -1.0 | 23.4 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -0.9 | 22.4 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -0.9 | 21.5 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -0.9 | 20.7 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -0.8 | 19.8 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -0.8 | 19.0 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -0.8 | 18.3 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -0.7 | 17.5 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | -0.7 | 16.2 | E218 silent |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | reinforce | +19.0 | 34.5 | E220 Cyan Banister support x2 (new voice) |
| E221 2025-03-29 | decay | -1.4 | 33.2 | E221 silent |
| E222 2025-04-05 | decay | -1.3 | 31.8 | E222 silent |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -1.3 | 30.6 | E223 silent |
| E224 2025-04-19 | decay | -1.2 | 29.3 | E224 silent |
| E225 2025-04-26 | decay | -1.2 | 28.2 | E225 silent |
| E226 2025-05-02 | decay | -1.1 | 27.0 | E226 silent |
| E227 2025-05-09 | decay | -1.1 | 25.9 | E227 silent |
| E228 2025-05-17 | decay | -1.0 | 24.9 | E228 silent |
| E229 2025-05-24 | decay | -1.0 | 23.9 | E229 silent |
| E231 2025-06-13 | decay | -1.0 | 23.0 | E231 silent |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -0.9 | 22.0 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | decay | -0.9 | 21.2 | E233 silent |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -0.8 | 20.3 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -0.8 | 19.5 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -0.8 | 18.7 | E236 silent |