🌍 Rapid reopening: weeks, not months
Asymptomatic-spread data means the fatality denominator is wrong and the true rate is far lower than feared; mass antibody testing plus green zones reopens the West Coast within weeks (Friedberg: April 7-8; Chamath: six weeks) — the risk-asset recovery trade.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 58.7 WATCH
WATCH
band · contested
▲ LONG SPY
expression · bullish macro
RIGHT
result · return +29.6% · vs SPY +0.0%
2020-06-19
born 2020-03-19 (E1) → window closed
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2020-03-19 → 2020-06-19 — first mention + 3-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG SPY (primary play). SPY rose 29.6% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +29.6% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +29.6% → vs SPY = +29.6 − (+29.6) = +0.0% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses. (SPY is itself the primary here — scored on return alone.)
- Rule fired:
▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 29.6, vs SPY 0.0)· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all· WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Friedberg, Jason | opposed: Chamath | benchmark-primary: scored on R alone
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2020-03-19)
Plays
Mention log newest first
Chamath
macro 53% · n=47
· E2 (2020-04-11) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 42:47
OPPOSE
“Getting back to work is going to be much, much more difficult than people think... in the absence of a vaccine, which looks like at best 18 to 24 months from now, we will never get to 100% of where we were before... over the next two years, we're in for a tremendous amount of difficulty... I don't think we're going to get out of lockdown until June 1st at the earliest.”
Friedberg
macro 46% · n=40
· E1 (2020-03-19) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:26:29
SUPPORT
· horizon 1mo
“I'm taking the under. I'm taking April 7th or 8th... the West Coast, with some travel restrictions, is going to be able to reopen for business probably around April 7th or 8th because we're going to see a dramatic decline at that point. And we're going to see a lower fatality rate than everyone is predicting.”
Chamath
macro 53% · n=47
· E1 (2020-03-19) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:25:01
SUPPORT
· horizon 2mo
“These IGG and IGM tests will come online at scale in the next two weeks... we will establish demarked zones within cities and towns, green zones... I am telling you that it's within six weeks from now.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement