📈 Retail speculation complex (Robinhood/prediction markets/gambling) wins 2026
Rate cuts plus boom-era spare cash flow into wagering and trading platforms — Robinhood, Polymarket, PrizePicks and the gambling space are the best-performing assets of 2026.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 40.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG HOOD
expression · bullish equities
—
moved yet?
days to scoring · born 2026-01-10 (E257) → 2027-01-10
IS THIS A TRADE?
🚫 Not a trade: conviction 9.4, dormant.
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2026-01-10)
Plays
Mention log newest first
Friedberg
equities 43% · n=123
· E261 (2026-02-13) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 22:16
OPPOSE
“over time, you could burn and churn through all of your customers, ... if they're constantly going to be making trades where they simply don't have an edge, and all the ... liquidity is coming from the accounts that do have an edge,”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -34.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E257 2026-01-10 | init | +40.0 | 40.0 | E257 born by Jason (annual_prediction x2) |
| E258 2026-01-17 | decay | -1.6 | 38.4 | E258 silent |
| E259 2026-01-30 | decay | -1.5 | 36.9 | E259 silent |
| E260 2026-02-07 | decay | -1.5 | 35.4 | E260 silent |
| E261 2026-02-13 | oppose | -9.6 | 25.8 | E261 Friedberg opposes x1 |
| E261 2026-02-13 | reinforce | +13.4 | 39.1 | E261 Chamath support x1 (new voice) |
| E262 2026-02-28 | decay | -1.6 | 37.6 | E262 silent |
| E263 2026-03-06 | decay | -1.5 | 36.1 | E263 silent |
| E264 2026-03-13 | decay | -1.4 | 34.6 | E264 silent |
| E265 2026-03-19 | decay | -1.4 | 33.2 | E265 silent |
| E266 2026-03-27 | decay | -1.3 | 31.9 | E266 silent |
| E267 2026-04-03 | decay | -1.3 | 30.6 | E267 silent |
| E268 2026-04-10 | decay | -1.2 | 29.4 | E268 silent |
| E269 2026-04-17 | decay | -1.2 | 28.2 | E269 silent |
| E270 2026-04-24 | decay | -1.1 | 27.1 | E270 silent |
| E271 2026-05-01 | decay | -1.1 | 26.0 | E271 silent |
| E272 2026-05-08 | decay | -1.0 | 25.0 | E272 silent |
| E273 2026-05-15 | decay | -1.0 | 24.0 | E273 silent |
| E274 2026-05-22 | decay | -1.0 | 23.0 | E274 silent |
| E275 2026-05-29 | decay | -0.9 | 22.1 | E275 silent |
| E276 2026-06-13 | decay | -0.9 | 21.2 | E276 silent |
| E277 2026-06-19 | decay | -0.8 | 20.4 | E277 silent |
| E278 2026-06-26 | decay | -0.8 | 19.6 | E278 silent |
| E279 2026-07-03 | decay | -0.8 | 18.8 | E279 silent |
| E280 2026-07-11 | decay | -0.8 | 18.0 | E280 silent |
| E281 2026-07-18 | decay | -0.7 | 17.3 | E281 silent |
| E282 2026-07-24 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E282 silent |
| E283 2026-07-31 | decay | -0.7 | 15.9 | E283 silent |
| E284 2026-08-08 | decay | -0.6 | 15.3 | E284 silent |
| E285 2026-08-14 | decay | -0.6 | 14.7 | E285 silent |
| E286 2026-08-21 | decay | -0.6 | 14.1 | E286 silent |
| E287 2026-08-29 | decay | -0.6 | 13.5 | E287 silent |
| E288 2026-09-04 | decay | -0.5 | 13.0 | E288 silent |
| E289 2026-09-11 | decay | -0.5 | 12.5 | E289 silent |
| E290 2026-09-26 | decay | -0.5 | 12.0 | E290 silent |
| E291 2026-10-02 | decay | -0.5 | 11.5 | E291 silent |
| E292 2026-10-10 | decay | -0.5 | 11.0 | E292 silent |
| E293 2026-10-17 | decay | -0.4 | 10.6 | E293 silent |
| E294 2026-10-23 | decay | -0.4 | 10.2 | E294 silent |
| E295 2026-10-30 | decay | -0.4 | 9.8 | E295 silent |
| E296 2026-11-07 | decay | -0.4 | 9.4 | E296 silent |