📈 SoftBank is a forced seller — the Arm IPO is balance-sheet deleveraging

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2023-08-25 → 2024-08-25 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT SFTBY (primary play). SFTBY rose 31.7% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -31.7% (the call lost money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +29.6% → α = -31.7 − (+29.6) = -61.2% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
   Stock-selection read: -2.1% — did SFTBY move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5

   · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0

   ▶ MISS — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath | opposed: Friedberg, Sacks

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath w=0.84

1 scoring event · 68% of moves

+29.3 → net +29.3

Friedberg w=0.87

1 scoring event · 24% of moves

+0.0 / -10.4 → net -10.4

Sacks w=0.89

1 scoring event · 8% of moves

+0.0 / -3.7 → net -3.7

⏳ decay drained -15.3 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one