📈 SoftBank is a forced seller — the Arm IPO is balance-sheet deleveraging

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2023-08-25 → 2024-08-25 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT SFTBY (primary play). SFTBY rose 31.7% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -31.7% (the call lost money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +29.6% → vs SPY = -31.7 − (+29.6) = -61.2% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
   Direction-only read: -2.1% — did SFTBY move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+

   · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   ▶ WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath | opposed: Friedberg, Sacks

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath 42%

1 scoring event · 68% of moves

+35.0 → net +35.0

Friedberg 43%

1 scoring event · 23% of moves

+0.0 / -12.0 → net -12.0

Sacks 44%

1 scoring event · 9% of moves

+0.0 / -4.8 → net -4.8

⏳ decay drained -18.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one