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Chamath oppose ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Debt-service trap: the Fed can't really fight inflation, so we monetize and debase E100 · 2022-10-14 ▶ 1:02:51

the single biggest thing I think that will prevent nuclear war is the inflation that we're feeling. And the reason is because it allows the Fed, in my opinion, for the first time really in the last 15 years, to act properly.

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Debt-service trap: the Fed can't really fight inflation, so we monetize and debase E98 · 2022-10-01 ▶ 31:26

That's $15 trillion of annual debt service, which is like 18% of global GDP. Like the debt service alone.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Debt-service trap: the Fed can't really fight inflation, so we monetize and debase E98 · 2022-10-01 ▶ 33:15

When rates were like near zero, and we had the opportunity to refinance the US government debt using long-term rates, basically long-term bonds

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Debt-service trap: the Fed can't really fight inflation, so we monetize and debase E98 · 2022-10-01 ▶ 32:39

You print more money. I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but it is not as if we have a law, a constitutional law, or it's not as if governments have collectively decided that you cannot have debt to GDP above a certain number. That doesn't happen, guys. We passed 100 under Obama, and we've just kept printing money.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Debt-service trap: the Fed can't really fight inflation, so we monetize and debase E80 · 2022-05-13 ▶ 1:36:00

But I think the reality is there's a Fed put somewhere in between here, because if we see the credit markets really seize up, which we would if the equity markets continue to retrench, the Fed will be forced to step in with liquidity and we back to where we were before.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Debt-service trap: the Fed can't really fight inflation, so we monetize and debase E71 · 2022-03-05 ▶ 1:17:15

And so if we end up running massive deficits, and now we're at, you know, 150, 250, 300 percent of GDP, I think that, you know, morally that's that is the right thing to do.

Chamath reversal ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E71 · 2022-03-05 ▶ 21:30

No. And the other thing, in fact, it's the opposite. ... What I can tell you is I think that prices are too high in certain core commodities and goods. I think what's going to happen is we are going to find a way to subsidize those prices coming down.

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E71 · 2022-03-05 ▶ 1:11:56

Today, corn, I think, is trading at $7.60 a bushel. That hasn't happened, guys. I can't tell you in how long. This was a commodity that was trading at $3.50 a few months ago. ... The trickle-down effect, as we're already seeing in California, or San Francisco, with the average price per gallon of gas at over $5. The trickle-down effect on purchasing behavior, on businesses defaulting because suddenly their counterparties dry up.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E67 · 2022-02-12 ▶ 1:03:46

there was a really interesting chart on inflation that actually Zero Hedge tweeted. And I threw it up in the notes here where they said real hourly earnings are negative 1.7 percent. It's the 10th month in a row where US incomes aren't keeping up with inflation. ... Actually, as it turns out, it boosted inflation so much that people are feeling worse off, even though their wages went up slightly, because on a net basis, their earnings are down. So I just think it's a good reminder that you can't just like print wealth. You can't print your way to prosperity.

Chamath reversal ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E64 · 2022-01-22 ▶ 44:31

But David is saying something really important. The risk, in my opinion, is not of runaway inflation anymore. And the reason was what happened this weekend was incredibly important.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E60 · 2021-12-23 ▶ 43:04

But now it turned out that the inflation was not transitory. And so the use of the word transitory, I predict, will in fact be transitory.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E59 · 2021-12-17 ▶ 33:22

The Fed prints money, the government prints $100, takes that $100, steps into the market, and takes something from you, in this case, it's a bond, and gives you that freshly printed $100. What are you going to do? Well, you're probably going to go and spend that, you're going to buy other things. And that's the cycle of inflation that quantitative easing basically creates. ... when we're printing six, seven, eight percent inflation for me to basically keep the money printing machine on because it's it's insane

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E59 · 2021-12-17 ▶ 31:38

this BBB bill was particularly anachronistic once the 6.8%, you know, inflation print came out. In other words, we're in a hyperinflationary environment and here comes this bill that the CBO says if, you know, over 10 years would cost $5 trillion, that's the last thing we need is more money printing when, you know, we've got this inflationary fire out of control.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Debt-service trap: the Fed can't really fight inflation, so we monetize and debase E58 · 2021-12-11 ▶ 42:08

It is a breaking of the bank. They're talking about minting trillion dollar coins. ... So you're looking at 150 billion of incremental debt service costs, right? So multiply that over 10 years, that's 1.5 trillion over 10 years. That's your build back better right there.

Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Debt-service trap: the Fed can't really fight inflation, so we monetize and debase E58 · 2021-12-11 ▶ 17:37

Now, the problem is if you then raise rates and you can't borrow that money, and suddenly people have to start to pay that debt down without economic growth having occurred, the whole system goes bankrupt. So the challenge that the Fed has is how do we raise rates without triggering an economic recession?

Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E58 · 2021-12-11 ▶ 17:37

We're seeing asset bubbles everywhere in NFTs, in crypto, in startups, in new startups, in new ideas. ... And as a result, we're kind of seeing this inflationary pressure persist.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E58 · 2021-12-11 ▶ 13:58

CPI is horribly calculated and it's really imprecise ... the largest owners of nationwide single-family rentals are reporting a 17% year-over-year rent increase ... it means that core CPI actually went from 4.9% today to actually 9%. And the CPI print, which was 6.8%, was actually 10.1%.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E58 · 2021-12-11 ▶ 9:04

it's definitely not transitory ... Then it went to 6.2. Now it's 6.8. Looks like it's headed to 7%. ... these guys are continuing to pump more and more stimulus into an economy that has enough

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E57 · 2021-12-04 ▶ 40:44

the government changed their formula for what is considered a conforming mortgage. I think it kicks in in January and essentially it basically allows US homeowners to have a million dollar mortgage and have it essentially be conforming. ... So worse terms become better terms. You have more equity. You can pull out more money. I think that people will spend that money. And so even on the consumer side, I think that you have an impetus to spend.

Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E56 · 2021-11-20 ▶ 53:05

the primary reason for the increase in education costs because the government funds all the student loans, the increase in health care, the increase in defense, all of it is because the government is the customer and they tell the person that's servicing them upfront, they tell the market what they're willing to pay. And so the market just inflates to that amount.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Debt-service trap: the Fed can't really fight inflation, so we monetize and debase E55 · 2021-11-13 ▶ 55:21

So the problem we have now, okay, here's the problem we have, is there's going to be no Paul Volcker. Why? We can't afford to jack up rates, because the federal government's debt is so much bigger than it used to be. ... we don't have effective tools to fight it anymore because we've given up our ability to raise rates because it would increase the cost of the debt so much.

Friedberg support ×1 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E55 · 2021-11-13 ▶ 47:51

Yeah, I made one in January that said the same thing. ... So it's very likely that, you know, tax revenue could kind of present itself again as a driver if inflation continues to spiral up.

Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E55 · 2021-11-13 ▶ 45:11

The thing I'm seeing now is I think we've moved into what I'll call a contagion phase of inflation, which is people are hearing about inflation. They're seeing it. ... They're just saying, everything's going up around me. And so they raise prices.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E55 · 2021-11-13 ▶ 50:15

Inflation is very simple. It's too much money chasing too few goods. And we have both sides of the equation going on right now. ... You've got this massive expansion in the amount of money. Look, too much money chasing too few goods creates this problem. It was very predictable. What I said back in May, this is what I was warning about.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E55 · 2021-11-13 ▶ 42:54

I think it's persistent. And the reason I think it's persistent is that all of these things are intertwined. ... Fertilizer makes corn more expensive. Lumber makes house prices more expensive. Chip prices makes the iPhone and cars more expensive or completely backlogged. ... If you go back to the original measurement, it looks like inflation in CPI is much more pernicious than we would otherwise think if we just look at the new CPI that we started to look at as of 1980