🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November

“I think what the early voting data shows is something that you haven't seen in the past, which is that there are a lot of Republican people that are voting early.”

“So it is looking good for Trump. And if you look at the numbers that Elon's group, that America PAC put out, it looks like the early voting in Pennsylvania is trending 500,000 votes better for Republicans in the early voting than four years ago.”

“It's a toss-up. That's what everybody's saying. It looks like Trump's got a slight lead. So I think it's going to be a toss-up.”

“So I would discount Polymarket a bit. It's probably not as extreme as it seems”

“All the data is basically pointing one direction, which is a Trump victory”

“this is now tilted overwhelmingly to a Trump win”

“Right now, the only candidate who looks like he could get a landslide is Trump. Otherwise, it's going to be very close. You're rooting for Trump if you want a landslide.”

“From a substance perspective, it was pretty lacking because if you actually listen to the answers, there was just a ton of non-answers.”

“which is why you're seeing the polls, at least the electoral college, which is really what matters at this point, turn Trump. So she's going to have a bit of an uphill fight between here and November.”

“Clearly, there's been a huge swing towards Trump over the last week or two. And look, there's still 25 days to go, so anything can happen. I don't want to overstate this, but yeah, this is a good example right here, showing that Trump now has a lead in every swing state.”

“Now, she's either even or ahead or a little bit behind in every single poll. Why do I bring it up? because it means what she's doing is working.”

“I mean, I think maybe the real question is why is he favored to win? Because I think the polls, including Nate Stilver, still show him favored to win.”

“So I think it's a pretty good chance that he's going to win, actually.”

“being able to do a more nuanced look at the electoral college probability, which is in the opposite direction, favoring Donald Trump and not Kamala.”

“She is the much weaker candidate. She's afraid to take questions on the tarmac. Trump is strong, he's authoritative, and I could see why they might prefer to have a President Harris than a President Trump.”

“I think the more the public learns, the more we learn about what she would do as president, the worse she does. And they've now got to run out the clock for another 70, 80 days in terms of running a campaign that's substance free, that's just completely on vibes, that's about joy, without answering any questions, without doing any press interviews.”

“And in the middle of the relief rally that Biden isn't in the race. I think that we had a different version of a relief rally when everybody realized that President Trump hadn't been assassinated. So these are the pendulum swings, I think, of an electorate that still hasn't been given a clear definition of A or B.”

“Now, pragmatically, running out the clock as a strategy and not defining your positions too much and just selling the vibes is a brilliant strategy and it's working.”

“And I think that now that she finally is putting out policy proposals that can be questioned or analyzed and criticized, I think this is going to be the beginning of, I would say, a big correction in her campaign.”