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Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E296 · 2026-11-07 ▶ 41:06

And as we talked about a couple weeks ago, I think the bond market will tell you where they think that's headed. Because if we continue this $2 trillion your deficit spending, things are going to remain expensive, they're going to get worse.

Jason oppose ×1 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E295 · 2026-10-30 ▶ 51:08

And that is something we've never seen, which means you have no choice but to buy American debt and this debt. If you're a global participant, where are you going to put your money? France, in China, you can't put it into China.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E295 · 2026-10-30 ▶ 46:41

So when you look at this, what does it mean for treasuries having to compete with Facebook and SpaceX and Anthropic and OpenAI for money? Well, it means that somebody is going to have to pay more.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E294 · 2026-10-23 ▶ 53:52

So we're still kind of hanging on because we have some degree of economic growth that's allowing us to kind of hold things together. But I would argue that we are facing the same sort of fiscal cliff which leads to this extraordinary social unrest as France.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E293 · 2026-10-17 ▶ 6:07

we have a problem in the United States, which is that the US is moving the risk-free rate higher and higher. Who is doing that? These are the central bankers. These are the bond vigilantes.

Jason support ×1 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 1:17:23

And right now, the 10-year in the US is 5.3, the 30 year is 5.6. Somebody has to buy that debt, and that debt has profound trickle-down effect, Sacks, on how entrepreneurship, how businesses are built.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 1:12:01

I think the bond vigilantes are going to put the Western world on notice, and I think in the next probably three years, he will get most of the answers to his questions. ... now we're at sort of 20-year records, I think that what is happening in the United States is actually a knock-on effect of what is now, where this war is being fought. It's going to get fought in Western Europe.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 1:04:30

The US has not crossed it. And I worry that the US, as I've said many times, has not yet touched that point, has not hit the rock bottom. And we're teetering, and I think we're going to go deeper before we realize that we've crossed this point of guaranteed return

Jason oppose ×1 ▲ on 🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026 E291 · 2026-10-02 ▶ 58:00

If you look at unemployment hasn't changed, it's about the same. And then if you look at inflation, it's still sustained at that high threes, sometimes dipping into four, sometimes as low as 3.2, but never into the twos. And GDP is something that the American people just don't feel.

Chamath support ×1 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E291 · 2026-10-02 ▶ 54:41

And so when the French start to make cuts and it's what Friedberg has been saying, it's why were they forced to capitulate? Because of long rates. So that's happened.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026 E291 · 2026-10-02 ▶ 53:14

I think actually right now, no one's pricing in the potential for rate cuts here. It's all rate increases. So if we could get some relief there, get rate cuts, I mean, again, the economy is going to rock it even more.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E291 · 2026-10-02 ▶ 52:45

But man, if we don't get spending, as Scott Besson has talked about, to 3% deficit as a percentage GDP, these rates are only going to get worse, and that could basically just shoot us in the foot.

Sacks oppose ×1 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E291 · 2026-10-02 ▶ 51:33

Look, if you compare rates to the nominal growth rate of the economy, and those two things are highly correlated over time, you can see the economy is running really hot right now. That is part of the reason why rates are going up, is because you have to compensate people for a real return.

Friedberg oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026 E291 · 2026-10-02 ▶ 49:27

We've seen short-term rates on treasuries climb by 60 basis points. That's a pretty consequential climb. I think we haven't seen a short-term yield this high since going back to 2002

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E289 · 2026-09-11 ▶ 15:47

The government began spending wildly to keep people economically active, which had the adverse effect of driving inflation through the roof. And we now have a spiraling debt and spending problem in this country.

Friedberg oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026 E287 · 2026-08-29 ▶ 49:05

the inflation problem is fundamentally rooted in government spending. So deficit spending is correlated very nicely with the cost of housing, with the cost of healthcare, with the cost of education, and with the cost of everything else... And so inflation is persistent because what we thought were temporary emergency stimulus measures during COVID very quickly got normalized and became persistent spending cycles... So if the inflation remains high, people's affordability continues to go low.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E287 · 2026-08-29 ▶ 46:02

it is very, very hard to control spending when you have so many people going in... So I don't know how we get reform on this. Let me just say that if the Republicans lose control of Congress, I don't think that's going to make it better because you see now that the political energy in the Democrat Party is all towards these massive new spending programs that the DSA wants.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E287 · 2026-08-29 ▶ 41:02

you have the debt growing at 7% and you have GDP between 2 and 4%. So that's a recipe for disaster... if you see yields, if you see the 30, you're at 6 percent, it is the beginning of a death spiral. It's not going to be immediate. So don't freak out. But it is the beginning of some extreme pain, and that pain will last years.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E287 · 2026-08-29 ▶ 35:43

my theory and my argument on this is there is no action that Bessent can take that's actually going to have a meaningful effect on the long end of the curve. We have fundamental fiscal spending problem with the federal government right now. ... even if he maxed out his buying authority in the near term, that's only a trillion of buying and then he's got to turn around and sell 10

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E286 · 2026-08-21 ▶ 1:06:46

We printed so much money, we've got so much debt — the 30-year is now at 5.3 percent this week, it continues to hit new 20-year records every day... I don't see the arithmetic or the fiscal situation changing... there is going to be some big movement towards socialist policies between now and 2028 [and their program] would balloon costs — the bond market sells off, the 30-year yield spikes to 7, 8 percent, maybe more.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E283 · 2026-07-31 ▶ 15:15

just crossed 5.2% for the first time in 20 years. ... $2 trillion deficit, $7 trillion a year of spending on $5 trillion a year of revenue. Both Elizabeth Warren and Donald Trump agreed ... buy a US government bond that pays me 10% pretax a year. Why the heck would I pay 50 times ... We are going to end up seeing more bubbles pop

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E276 · 2026-06-13 ▶ 1:07:47

The core problem with wealth inequality in this country, the core problem with inflation in this country, ... all of it roots back to excess government spending. End of story. ... one of the manifestations of it will be in this late stage, higher rates and as a response to inflation.

Friedberg oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026 E276 · 2026-06-13 ▶ 1:06:51

there's also the macro point, which is government spending out of control. Inflation out of control. And fundamentally, as things unravel, you have rising rates. So I think we should kind of expect, especially with the Kevin Warsh Fed, I think we could see north of five and a half, six percent overnight rates. It's not unforeseeable.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E274 · 2026-05-22 ▶ 1:24:07

It ultimately breaks and as it starts to break, you have massive inflation because the value of your underlying currency collapses and then you have money printing and ... is one of those things that could be a catalyst for a credit crisis, because there's a lot of people that are in this carry trade. ... this is water leaking out of the bucket.

Friedberg support ×1 ▲ on 🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026 E270 · 2026-04-24 ▶ 23:20

[Warsh at his Fed-chair hearing] spoke a lot about the deflationary evolution promised by AI... he expects it will drive productivity growth like we've never seen before... the deflationary forces ultimately lead to economic expansion... he does think the overall economic picture is one of deflationary pressure.