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Friedberg oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026 E287 · 2026-08-29 ▶ 49:05

the inflation problem is fundamentally rooted in government spending. So deficit spending is correlated very nicely with the cost of housing, with the cost of healthcare, with the cost of education, and with the cost of everything else... And so inflation is persistent because what we thought were temporary emergency stimulus measures during COVID very quickly got normalized and became persistent spending cycles... So if the inflation remains high, people's affordability continues to go low.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E287 · 2026-08-29 ▶ 46:02

it is very, very hard to control spending when you have so many people going in... So I don't know how we get reform on this. Let me just say that if the Republicans lose control of Congress, I don't think that's going to make it better because you see now that the political energy in the Democrat Party is all towards these massive new spending programs that the DSA wants.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E287 · 2026-08-29 ▶ 41:02

you have the debt growing at 7% and you have GDP between 2 and 4%. So that's a recipe for disaster... if you see yields, if you see the 30, you're at 6 percent, it is the beginning of a death spiral. It's not going to be immediate. So don't freak out. But it is the beginning of some extreme pain, and that pain will last years.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E287 · 2026-08-29 ▶ 35:43

my theory and my argument on this is there is no action that Bessent can take that's actually going to have a meaningful effect on the long end of the curve. We have fundamental fiscal spending problem with the federal government right now. ... even if he maxed out his buying authority in the near term, that's only a trillion of buying and then he's got to turn around and sell 10

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E286 · 2026-08-21 ▶ 1:06:46

We printed so much money, we've got so much debt — the 30-year is now at 5.3 percent this week, it continues to hit new 20-year records every day... I don't see the arithmetic or the fiscal situation changing... there is going to be some big movement towards socialist policies between now and 2028 [and their program] would balloon costs — the bond market sells off, the 30-year yield spikes to 7, 8 percent, maybe more.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E283 · 2026-07-31 ▶ 15:15

just crossed 5.2% for the first time in 20 years. ... $2 trillion deficit, $7 trillion a year of spending on $5 trillion a year of revenue. Both Elizabeth Warren and Donald Trump agreed ... buy a US government bond that pays me 10% pretax a year. Why the heck would I pay 50 times ... We are going to end up seeing more bubbles pop

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E276 · 2026-06-13 ▶ 1:07:47

The core problem with wealth inequality in this country, the core problem with inflation in this country, ... all of it roots back to excess government spending. End of story. ... one of the manifestations of it will be in this late stage, higher rates and as a response to inflation.

Friedberg oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026 E276 · 2026-06-13 ▶ 1:06:51

there's also the macro point, which is government spending out of control. Inflation out of control. And fundamentally, as things unravel, you have rising rates. So I think we should kind of expect, especially with the Kevin Warsh Fed, I think we could see north of five and a half, six percent overnight rates. It's not unforeseeable.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E274 · 2026-05-22 ▶ 1:24:07

It ultimately breaks and as it starts to break, you have massive inflation because the value of your underlying currency collapses and then you have money printing and ... is one of those things that could be a catalyst for a credit crisis, because there's a lot of people that are in this carry trade. ... this is water leaking out of the bucket.

Friedberg support ×1 ▲ on 🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026 E270 · 2026-04-24 ▶ 23:20

[Warsh at his Fed-chair hearing] spoke a lot about the deflationary evolution promised by AI... he expects it will drive productivity growth like we've never seen before... the deflationary forces ultimately lead to economic expansion... he does think the overall economic picture is one of deflationary pressure.

Chamath oppose ×2 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E261 · 2026-02-13 ▶ 42:23

Does debt to GDP matter?... mostly I would say it doesn't matter... it moves in unison... debt to GDP, if I had to be a betting man, will trend into the 2, 3, 4, 5, 600 [percent] on a relative basis for all countries... the music isn't up for a very long time.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 US fiscal spiral keeps long-end yields grinding higher E261 · 2026-02-13 ▶ 34:10

it adds another $650 billion a year of interest expense, which takes interest expense almost up to $2 trillion a year, ... could be not just the straw that breaks the camel's back, but the concrete

Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026 E260 · 2026-02-07 ▶ 53:15

Warsh has been consistent for the last year, saying the Fed was taking too long to realize that inflation is falling and that they should be cutting more. So I do think that over the next, say, six months to a year, he's going to want to cut rates.

Brad Gerstner support ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026 E260 · 2026-02-07 ▶ 50:45

thinks AI will be very deflationary. And so he's more likely to let the economy run ... inflation has come in below all consensus estimates for two years, ... I happen to think that I would take the over on the number of rate cuts that Warsh is going to give us this year.

Chamath support ×1 ▲ on 🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026 E255 · 2025-12-19 ▶ 38:54

The other thing in 26 is you get a bunch of tax cuts that kick in. No tax on tips, no tax on overtime. ... Accelerated depreciation. You have big stimulative actions for the United States economy.

Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026 E255 · 2025-12-19 ▶ 34:27

It looks to me like inflation is rolling over, and that's just about a solved problem... it implies that interest rates are coming down... it seems to me like we're on the cusp of a golden age here... I think we're headed for a gangbusters 2026 — rates are coming down, inflation is coming down, and you're also getting tax cuts going into effect next year.

Brad Gerstner support ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Fed easing + disinflation into 2026 E250 · 2025-11-07 ▶ 53:18

I actually think you are going to get three to four rate cuts. I actually think you are going to see a re-acceleration of GDP. I ... happen to think that inflation is going to continue rolling over. ... I'll take the under, Jason, with you. And you can have a little side wager.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 The "Big, Beautiful Bill" delivers no real deficit cut and the long end reprices E238 · 2025-08-09 ▶ 1:27:08

The thing I most worry about with respect to tariffs is if it does create a new revenue source for the federal government, it gives the federal government another crutch to keep spending up.

Gavin Baker oppose ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Trump's endgame: let equities crack to refinance $10T of debt E238 · 2025-08-09 ▶ 1:23:44

I am inclined to think that he is much more sensitive to the market than he lets on.

Sacks oppose ×1 ▼ on 🏦 The "Big, Beautiful Bill" delivers no real deficit cut and the long end reprices E237 · 2025-08-01 ▶ 1:16:13

And what we're seeing now across the board is generating about $300 billion a year of additional tariff revenue that goes to help balancing the budget. So $300 billion a year over 10 years is $3 trillion. That is a big number.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 The "Big, Beautiful Bill" delivers no real deficit cut and the long end reprices E237 · 2025-08-01 ▶ 8:37

I have issues with the spending, and that's not been resolved. So like I said before, here we are, folks. My full-throated endorsement will come around when Doge actions are taken seriously and or the White House puts pressure on Congress to take action on spending.

The Big Beautiful Bill is doing, it's oriented toward growth stimulation. Everything that we can do to stimulate more capital investment in the United States is embodied in the tax law as part of that bill. So with the growth coming out of the Big Beautiful Bill, and if we continue to go through the cuts with decisions, I'm very optimistic that we're going to get back on the right path.

Gavin Baker support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 The "Big, Beautiful Bill" delivers no real deficit cut and the long end reprices E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 12:30

Now that rates have gone up and don't seem like they're you know, going down anytime soon, the deficit does matter and it really matters. And you can kind of run a couple of scenarios, but like pick your metric. If the deficit kind of continues at current levels and we were to refinance the debt at the prices that David was talking about, it's only a few years before spending on interest is significantly larger than spending on Medicare and Medicaid or Social Security or the military.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 The "Big, Beautiful Bill" delivers no real deficit cut and the long end reprices E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 8:57

At 3.3%, which is the current average rate we're paying across $36 trillion, we have a run rate interest expense. So just the money we're paying each year on the interest of the outstanding debt is $1.2 trillion a year. And if the spike's up to 5% from 3.3, we're talking about nearly $2 trillion a year in interest expense.

Gavin Baker oppose ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Trump's endgame: let equities crack to refinance $10T of debt E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 3:06

there was maybe three months where Trump said he did not care about the stock market. But now he's back to quoting the market at all time highs. Yes. He clearly cares and is clearly very sensitive to market feedback.