📈 Arm's post-earnings rip is a float squeeze, not a repricing
Chamath's structural read on Arm's move after earnings: only ~10-15m of ~150m shares actually float because SoftBank holds ~90%, and about 12.5m shares were short going into the print, so nearly a full turn of the float was short. The move therefore looks like an enormous short squeeze by funds that were long other chip names and shorting Arm as a spread trade to damp volatility, not a fundamental repricing of a flat licensing business - and a float that thin cuts violently in both directions.
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-02-16 → 2025-02-16 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT ARM (primary play). ARM rose 24.3% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -24.3% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +23.6%
→ α = -24.3 − (+23.6) = -47.9%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: -0.7% — did ARM move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-02-16)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | ARM | stock | PRIMARY | the squeezed security itself |
| ▼ SHORT | SFTBY | stock | adjacent | holds ~90% of Arm, so its reported NAV rides on the Arm mark |
Mention log
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -14.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E166 2024-02-16 | init | +16.8 | 16.8 | E166 born by Chamath (sentiment x2) [w=0.84] |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -0.6 | 15.4 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -0.6 | 14.8 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -0.6 | 14.2 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E171 silent |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -0.5 | 13.1 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -0.5 | 11.6 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -0.5 | 11.1 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -0.3 | 8.4 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -0.3 | 8.0 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -0.3 | 6.0 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -0.2 | 5.8 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -0.2 | 5.3 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -0.2 | 5.1 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -0.2 | 4.9 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -0.2 | 4.7 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -0.2 | 4.5 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -0.2 | 4.4 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -0.2 | 4.2 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -0.2 | 4.0 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -0.2 | 3.9 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -0.2 | 3.7 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -0.1 | 3.6 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -0.1 | 3.4 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -0.1 | 3.3 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -0.1 | 3.1 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -0.1 | 3.0 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -0.1 | 2.9 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -0.1 | 2.8 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -0.1 | 2.7 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -0.1 | 2.6 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -0.1 | 2.5 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -0.1 | 2.4 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -0.1 | 2.3 | E215 silent |