🏛️ Ukraine endgame is an organized negotiated detente, not a Ukrainian win

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E84 (2022-06-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:12:02 SUPPORT

“So I think that the end game is probably some organized, negotiated detente and ceasefire. ... I don't think anybody will be happy with it, but I think by and large, Russia is and has won, you know, meaning they've won economically.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E84 (2022-06-24) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:11:48 SUPPORT

“What's the end? I mean, the end is a negotiation.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E87 (2022-07-14) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:22:16 SUPPORT

“It looked like Ukraine was winning the first couple of weeks, but now it looks like Russia has won this Donbass region.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E95 (2022-09-10) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 23:36 SUPPORT

“And I think what it does is ultimately it is forced the Russian endgame. And that Russian endgame is essentially the following, which is that Germany will probably be the first to capitulate, but it'll be a combination of the United States and Europe who negotiate some kind of a settlement.”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E95 (2022-09-10) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 32:44 SUPPORT · horizon 6mo

“Meanwhile, Putin's smiling because he got exactly what he wanted. I think that's where this is all going to end up over the next several months.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E95 (2022-09-10) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 26:34 OPPOSE

“I think you guys are just assuming there's going to be a compromise. I'm not sure that's true. These leaders are stubborn.”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E95 (2022-09-10) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 25:45 SUPPORT

“They need heat. They need people can't freeze to death in Germany. So they're going to have to fold in some way.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E96 (2022-09-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:27:01 REVERSAL

“So this is going to go on for as long, for much longer than people think. So I would just prepare for this inevitable outcome and just kind of, you know, manage.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E96 (2022-09-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:22:05 OPPOSE

“That certainly could happen, but I think there's an equal and opposite chance that instead what happens is that we climbed the escalatory ladder. That Putin, I think we are backing him into a corner. Everybody says that he cannot survive the loss of this war, and yet we're not willing to give him an off ramp. So what choice does he have but to escalate?”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E97 (2022-09-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 34:45 REVERSAL

“Jay Cal, I thought that you were right this whole time, which is we're going to build a golden bridge. We're going to find a way to egress this guy. I'm now in the David camp, which is I think that the stated strategy of the Western Alliance is essentially to cause him to make such a categorically catastrophic mistake, so as to become a pariah, so as to either get overthrown or something.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E97 (2022-09-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 34:21 OPPOSE

“I see no evidence that we have any intentions of seeking a diplomatic off ramp. I see no evidence that they're looking for to give him a golden bridge, like you said.”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E97 (2022-09-23) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 31:33 OPPOSE

“But as Sacks says, there's like this weird like turning up the volume happening on, hey, maybe we're getting closer to a point where if Putin is having tactical failure in this conflict, there's more weaponry he can use that has greater impact.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E98 (2022-10-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:06:53 OPPOSE

“We're not in the endgame. We're on a path towards escalation because all the off-ramps have been removed.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E100 (2022-10-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:11:57 SUPPORT

“America needs to have a point of view of what is in its own interests. What is in our interests is for this to get resolved diplomatically at some point through a negotiated settlement, not for it to escalate into a nuclear war that we could get pulled into.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E100 (2022-10-14) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:01:03 SUPPORT

“You have these people who will generate more revenue and more profit if there is a massive war. And those people have been trying to push us into a land war in Europe since this whole thing started.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E102 (2022-10-29) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:09:49 SUPPORT

“That's not a reason not to engage in diplomacy. And it's not a reason to deny the potential of this war to spin out of control potentially into a nuclear war.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E113 (2023-01-27) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:17:40 SUPPORT

“So I just think that what all of this is, is now sort of they're entering the endgame, David, to use a chess analogy. And it looks like they're setting the wheels in motion to kind of put all the pieces together for a negotiated settlement.”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E113 (2023-01-27) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:18:33 SUPPORT

“So this war of attrition has to resolve itself with some sort of settlement. But we just can't go on for two or three years, can it? I mean, it has to settle at some point.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E113 (2023-01-27) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:20:32 OPPOSE

“And it feels to me like the true believers are on top right now because we just keep escalating this war more and more. And I think that's dangerous. That polarizes the outcomes, right?”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E115 (2023-02-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 22:53 OPPOSE

“I don't think that there's much of an incentive or a motivation to back down, because this conflict creates a significant amount of debt owed back to the US.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E115 (2023-02-11) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 14:02 OPPOSE

“And I think the longer this goes on, the more dangerous it is.”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E120 (2023-03-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:25:39 SUPPORT

“The war is going to end there because we're not funding this. And the American public is not going to want to see tens of billions of dollars go into Ukraine and to fund this war in year two or three.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E126 (2023-04-28) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:08:58 SUPPORT

“It looks like Russia is certainly not losing the way they used to be. They've captured 90% of Bakhmut, which has been the most violent, bloody battle of the war. And Biden at this point has no strategy to bring that to an end. In fact, he's rejected multiple attempts at a peace deal. And so now it looks like it's the Chinese who are in the driver's seat, potentially putting together some sort of diplomatic settlement.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E128 (2023-05-12) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:02:51 SUPPORT

“and Ukraine's going to win this war, and instead, it looks like it's being destroyed, Ukraine is. So, this war is turning into a debacle.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E134 (2023-06-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 16:17 SUPPORT

“Where it stands right now is that around 18 or 19 days into it, it has produced minimal gains. In fact, it's been somewhat of a disaster. It's hard to get conclusive estimates of personnel and material losses, but I think as many as a quarter of the tanks and armored vehicles have already been destroyed, and the casualties may be as high as around 10,000 out of an army that was trained up for this purpose of around 50,000.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E134 (2023-06-24) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 23:38 REVERSAL

“Because on the one hand, if you take the Russia incident and the Ukraine War, what you saw was that there were ample numbers of off ramps that we chose, frankly, to not take so that we could engage our enemy in some long drawn out war on the hopes that it just depletes their resources. That's kind of rolling the dice, I think, in a very dangerous way.”