🛢️ Copper (and critical metals) goes parabolic
Unilateral national-security resourcing meets structural shortage: copper is in everything (data centers, chips, weapons) and the world is on a path to be ~70% short of supply by 2040 — 'the asset that is set up to go absolutely parabolic'; best-asset pick doubled as a basket of critical metals.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 38.4 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG CPER
expression · bullish commodities
—
entry flag
days to eval · 2027-01-10
IS THIS A TRADE?
🚫 Not a trade — conviction 10.8 is DORMANT, below WATCH (45) and far from the GREEN entry bar (65). If more weighted voices pile on, it climbs; two mentions isn't conviction.
direction semantics: bullish = the plays below are expected to RISE if the thesis is right → expression is long.
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2026-01-10)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | CPER | etf | PRIMARY | direct copper price exposure — the metal itself was the call |
| ▲ LONG | FCX | stock | adjacent | largest listed copper miner |
| ▲ LONG | SCCO | stock | adjacent | pure-play copper miner |
Mention log
Chamath
commodities w=0.80 · n=10
· E257 (2026-01-10) · annual_prediction · strength 3
▶ 34:27
SUPPORT
· horizon 12mo
“the asset that is set up to go absolutely parabolic is copper. ... manifests in everything, from our data centers to our chips to our weapon systems. ... we are on a path by 2040 where we will be short about 70% of the global supply”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -27.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E257 2026-01-10 | init | +38.4 | 38.4 | E257 born by Chamath (annual_prediction x3) [w=0.80] |
| E258 2026-01-17 | decay | -1.5 | 36.9 | E258 silent |
| E259 2026-01-30 | decay | -1.5 | 35.4 | E259 silent |
| E260 2026-02-07 | decay | -1.4 | 34.0 | E260 silent |
| E261 2026-02-13 | decay | -1.4 | 32.6 | E261 silent |
| E262 2026-02-28 | decay | -1.3 | 31.3 | E262 silent |
| E263 2026-03-06 | decay | -1.3 | 30.1 | E263 silent |
| E264 2026-03-13 | decay | -1.2 | 28.9 | E264 silent |
| E265 2026-03-19 | decay | -1.2 | 27.7 | E265 silent |
| E266 2026-03-27 | decay | -1.1 | 26.6 | E266 silent |
| E267 2026-04-03 | decay | -1.1 | 25.5 | E267 silent |
| E268 2026-04-10 | decay | -1.0 | 24.5 | E268 silent |
| E269 2026-04-17 | decay | -1.0 | 23.5 | E269 silent |
| E270 2026-04-24 | decay | -0.9 | 22.6 | E270 silent |
| E271 2026-05-01 | decay | -0.9 | 21.7 | E271 silent |
| E272 2026-05-08 | decay | -0.9 | 20.8 | E272 silent |
| E273 2026-05-15 | decay | -0.8 | 20.0 | E273 silent |
| E274 2026-05-22 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E274 silent |
| E275 2026-05-29 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E275 silent |
| E276 2026-06-13 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E276 silent |
| E277 2026-06-19 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E277 silent |
| E278 2026-06-26 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E278 silent |
| E279 2026-07-03 | decay | -0.7 | 15.6 | E279 silent |
| E280 2026-07-11 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E280 silent |
| E281 2026-07-18 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E281 silent |
| E282 2026-07-24 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E282 silent |
| E283 2026-07-31 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E283 silent |
| E284 2026-08-08 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E284 silent |
| E285 2026-08-14 | decay | -0.5 | 12.2 | E285 silent |
| E286 2026-08-21 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E286 silent |
| E287 2026-08-29 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E287 silent |
| E288 2026-09-04 | decay | -0.5 | 10.8 | E288 silent |