📈 Trans-Pacific container volume collapse seizes up the physical logistics economy

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2025-05-02 → 2026-05-02 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT MATX (primary play). MATX rose 55.3% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -55.3% (the call lost money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +28.6% → vs SPY = -55.3 − (+28.6) = -83.9% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
   Direction-only read: -26.7% — did MATX move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+

   · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   ▶ WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Aaron Levie, Jason, Ryan Petersen | opposed: Sacks

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Ryan Petersen 58% regular guest ×1.0

1 scoring event · 50% of moves

+42.0 → net +42.0

Jason 49%

2 scoring events · 24% of moves

+20.4 → net +20.4

Sacks 44%

1 scoring event · 14% of moves

+0.0 / -12.0 → net -12.0

Aaron Levie regular guest ×1.0

1 scoring event · 12% of moves

+10.1 → net +10.1

⏳ decay drained -50.0 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one