📈 Trans-Pacific container volume collapse seizes up the physical logistics economy
Ryan Petersen's Flexport booking data: China-to-US ocean freight bookings are down 60% after the 145-154% China tariff went live on April 9 departures, and that shock transmits with a four-to-six week lag into US warehousing, trucking, retail inventory and small-importer failures around early June. This is a physical-flow claim distinct from whether the tariffs are ultimately negotiated down - the ships that never loaded cannot be un-cancelled. Bearish trans-Pacific carriers, container liners and the domestic freight complex that moves the boxes once they land.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 69.1 GREEN
DORMANT
band · contested
▼ SHORT MATX
expression · bearish equities
MISS
outcome · R -55.3% · α -83.9%
2026-05-02
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2025-05-02 → 2026-05-02 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT MATX (primary play). MATX rose 55.3% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -55.3% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +28.6%
→ α = -55.3 − (+28.6) = -83.9%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: -26.7% — did MATX move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Aaron Levie, Jason, Ryan Petersen | opposed: Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-05-02)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | MATX | stock | PRIMARY | Matson's expedited China-to-US container service is the purest listed proxy for trans-Pacific volume |
| ▼ SHORT | XPO | stock | adjacent | US LTL trucking volumes are the downstream leg of landed import boxes |
| ▼ SHORT | ZIM | stock | adjacent | container liner levered to trans-Pacific spot rates and volumes |
Mention log
RY
Ryan Petersen
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities w=1.17 · n=6
· E226 (2025-05-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 29:07
SUPPORT
“And what has happened is a 60% decline in bookings of ocean freight from China to the U S I mean, so that's really, really pretty dramatic, like probably exceeding what was expected.”
AA
Aaron Levie
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities: 3 resolved, unproven
· E226 (2025-05-02) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 55:37
SUPPORT
“I think that you sort of phrase that we could do the research paper and we could do Aspen Institute as a bad thing, but also it could be a bad thing if you're the small business owner right now who has 30 employees and you just literally don't know what you're going to do next month.”
Sacks
equities w=0.89 · n=96
· E226 (2025-05-02) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 58:20
OPPOSE
POLICY-ADJACENT
“Okay. I don't remember the shelves being empty, which is now the new panic the media is trying to create. So look, there's a lot of pant sweating that's occurring here that's being fueled by the media.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -53.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E226 2025-05-02 | init | +49.0 | 49.0 | E226 born by Ryan Petersen (explicit_prediction x3) [w=1.17] |
| E226 2025-05-02 | reinforce | +11.1 | 60.1 | E226 Jason support x2 (new voice) [w=0.97] |
| E226 2025-05-02 | reinforce | +9.0 | 69.1 | E226 Aaron Levie support x2 (new voice) |
| E226 2025-05-02 | oppose | -10.6 | 58.5 | E226 Sacks opposes x2 [w=0.89] |
| E227 2025-05-09 | decay | -2.3 | 56.2 | E227 silent |
| E228 2025-05-17 | reinforce | +6.4 | 62.5 | E228 Jason support x2 [w=0.97] |
| E229 2025-05-24 | decay | -2.5 | 60.0 | E229 silent |
| E231 2025-06-13 | decay | -2.4 | 57.6 | E231 silent |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -2.3 | 55.3 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | decay | -2.2 | 53.1 | E233 silent |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -2.1 | 51.0 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -2.0 | 49.0 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -2.0 | 47.0 | E236 silent |
| E237 2025-08-01 | decay | -1.9 | 45.1 | E237 silent |
| E238 2025-08-09 | decay | -1.8 | 43.3 | E238 silent |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -1.7 | 41.6 | E239 silent |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -1.7 | 39.9 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -1.6 | 38.3 | E241 silent |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -1.5 | 36.8 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -1.5 | 35.3 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -1.4 | 33.9 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -1.4 | 32.5 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | decay | -1.3 | 31.2 | E246 silent |
| E247 2025-10-17 | decay | -1.2 | 30.0 | E247 silent |
| E248 2025-10-24 | decay | -1.2 | 28.8 | E248 silent |
| E249 2025-10-31 | decay | -1.2 | 27.6 | E249 silent |
| E250 2025-11-07 | decay | -1.1 | 26.5 | E250 silent |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -1.1 | 25.5 | E251 silent |
| E252 2025-11-22 | decay | -1.0 | 24.5 | E252 silent |
| E253 2025-12-06 | decay | -1.0 | 23.5 | E253 silent |
| E254 2025-12-13 | decay | -0.9 | 22.5 | E254 silent |
| E255 2025-12-19 | decay | -0.9 | 21.6 | E255 silent |
| E256 2025-12-31 | decay | -0.9 | 20.8 | E256 silent |
| E257 2026-01-10 | decay | -0.8 | 19.9 | E257 silent |
| E258 2026-01-17 | decay | -0.8 | 19.1 | E258 silent |
| E259 2026-01-30 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E259 silent |
| E260 2026-02-07 | decay | -0.7 | 17.6 | E260 silent |
| E261 2026-02-13 | decay | -0.7 | 16.9 | E261 silent |
| E262 2026-02-28 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E262 silent |
| E263 2026-03-06 | decay | -0.7 | 15.6 | E263 silent |
| E264 2026-03-13 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E264 silent |
| E265 2026-03-19 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E265 silent |
| E266 2026-03-27 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E266 silent |
| E267 2026-04-03 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E267 silent |
| E268 2026-04-10 | decay | -0.5 | 12.7 | E268 silent |
| E269 2026-04-17 | decay | -0.5 | 12.2 | E269 silent |
| E270 2026-04-24 | decay | -0.5 | 11.7 | E270 silent |
| E271 2026-05-01 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E271 silent |