+0.0
net board stance
what this means
91.46
+0.0% · close 2026-09-08
+0% / +1% / +4%
1m / 3m / 12m
-68%
vs SPY since 2023-08-18
100%
of 52w range · +0.0% off high
0/1
hit rate as primary · α -17
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on BIL
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 1 partial / 0 miss over 1 closed window — credit 0.5, average α -17.4. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏦 Cash + front-end T-bills are the place to be in 2023 | ▲ LONG | primary | PARTIAL | +5.0% | -17.4 | 2024-01-06 |
| 🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -3.7% | -19.9 | 2026-02-21 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding BIL, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
BI
Bill Hagerty
support ×2
▲ on
🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status
E236 · 2025-07-19
▶ 1:09:37
This is about taking America's payment system in the 21st century. This is about making our nation more competitive. This is about expanding demand for the US Treasury securities that we issue. This is about the dominance of the US dollar.
And in order to be in the US market, Tether is going to have to be 100% in treasuries, right? They're not going to be allowed to be, say, in real estate.
I was always worried about stable coins, the risk to the dollar. But I think you make a very good point that when you are the dominant currency, they entrench the dominance.
BO
Bo Hines
support ×2
▲ on
🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status
E236 · 2025-07-19
▶ 58:05
I'll make one more point before I jump off on the tether topic. The one thing that I think your viewers should know is, this year, they'll be the fourth largest purchaser of US Treasuries. I think that's something that we should really contemplate.
What could be bad about allowing digital dollars, which extends the dollar's dominance online, so that it basically bolsters the dollar status as the world's reserve currency. Over time, as we get challengers from BRICS, for example, this is going to make the US dollar stronger. And every time a dollar token trades somewhere in the world on a crypto wallet, there has to be a physical dollar in a US bank account invested in a US treasury. And that creates demand for our debt, which is another positive thing.
So it is true that the number one stablecoin issuer on the planet right now is an offshore company. ... And then also Tether will under this act, will have three years to come onshore. But the bottom line is they will have to operate in the United States. And that's a good thing for consumers. It's a good thing for the US.
LA
Larry Summers
oppose ×3
▲ on
🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status
E223 · 2025-04-11
▶ 17:37
The foreign exchange market is very big, and it's a big referendum on whether people have confidence in the United States. And somehow, tariffs reduce imports, are supposed to reduce dollar selling and make the currency go up. And not only is the currency not going up, it's going down substantially.
The thing that US dollar stable coins does is it starts to replicate one of those advantages, which again, if you think about having a release fell for the US economy, and if we need it to, all of a sudden scream to 200% debt to GDP, the real question is where is the incremental net buyer of the US bond? And it could be the person that has to back the stable coin
Well, and this is what the stable coins, I think, is set up to counter. ... force them to buy a certain percentage of treasuries, and allow them to give interest, which the stable coin bills are now debating if they should give that. So I don't know if you guys are watching that, but that would be the greatest way to keep a buyer for our currency.
BE
Ben Shapiro
oppose ×2
▲ on
🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status
E222 · 2025-04-05
▶ 1:20:47
And then beyond that, you also have the problem of what happens if there's just less demand for dollars on the world stage. The exit of the dollar as the world's global reserve currency is going to have some pretty nasty spillover effects.
But this is what I've been saying to Jay Cal, de-dollarization is what ends up happening.
Having USDC, having yours and other ones in the United States means we can regulate them and they have to buy treasuries. And so, okay, dollar supremacy continues, and that's fantastic.
PA
Patrick Collison
support ×2
▲ on
🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status
E216 · 2025-02-21
▶ 8:05
So I think it's a really big deal, certainly for people in those countries, and in some sense also for the US, because the dollar status as the world's reserve currency, I think is in the process of becoming much more deeply established.
You've got to beat 5%, 6%, 7%, or whatever people are going to get on those other instruments, corporate debt, you know, 10%, 11%, 12%. You've got a really hard bogey to beat here.
when prevailing rates are at five or six percent, and you can own those things or you can own structured credit for 11 to 13 percent, our business, unfortunately, does not look so good
let's just point out the opportunity cost to you. You could buy treasuries that pay you 5.5%... Your actual cost on that capital that you're using to finance the building yourself to buy the debt is costing you 5.5% a year of risk-free income for the $9 million.
Then how bond holders will react to all of this stuff is they'll just start to find different assets, probably the front end of the curve, money market, cash, gold, and they'll just abandon all these assets.
What I'd much rather see a startup do is buy 100% US T-bill backed money market fund run by the absolute biggest of the big financial institutions because you can get in and out of it at any time you want without paying a fee.
And then finally, you can go to TreasuryDirect.gov right now and buy short term government debt. And I literally have startups doing this who have major treasuries.
when the risk-free rate is somewhere north of 5 or 5.5% and banks are willing to give you 6.5% in the short term, you have to generate more than three times that to make an investment make sense when you're investing in the long term.
Why wouldn't you just put all your money in short-term T-bills? You earn five, five and a half percent risk free. Like, set it and forget it. ... capital flows are moving hugely right now from equities into bonds,
I would have a combination of cash and the front end of the yield curve. So T-bills all the way up to two-year bonds. ... probably by the end of this year, 5% pretty safely ... I would rather miss the first 10 or 15% of a rally