BIL

State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF

etf all instruments
+0.0
net board stance what this means
91.46
+0.0% · close 2026-09-08
+0% / +1% / +4%
1m / 3m / 12m
-68%
vs SPY since 2023-08-18
100%
of 52w range · +0.0% off high
0/1
hit rate as primary · α -17

Where we stand — 0 live ideas

No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.

Where the winds are blowing

NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES — rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the talk lead the tape or follow it?

Who's pushing which way

each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means

Chamath
Chamath w=0.88 rates
2 ideas (0 live) · last heard E222
+6
pushes up
Sacks
Sacks w=1.08 rates
2 ideas (0 live) · last heard E236
+5
pushes up
Jason
Jason w=0.86 rates
2 ideas (0 live) · last heard E236
+4
pushes up
PA
Patrick Collison guest ×0.5
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E216
+2
pushes up
BO
Bo Hines guest ×0.5
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E236
+2
pushes up
Gavin Baker
Gavin Baker guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E236
+2
pushes up
BI
Bill Hagerty guest ×0.5
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E236
+2
pushes up
Friedberg
Friedberg w=0.79 rates
2 ideas (0 live) · last heard E222
+0
neutral
BE
Ben Shapiro guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E222
-2
pushes down
LA
Larry Summers guest ×0.5
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E223
-3
pushes down

Track record on BIL

As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 1 partial / 0 miss over 1 closed window — credit 0.5, average α -17.4. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.

ideacallplayverdictRαclosed
🏦 Cash + front-end T-bills are the place to be in 2023 ▲ LONG primary PARTIAL +5.0% -17.4 2024-01-06
🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status ▲ LONG adjacent MISS -3.7% -19.9 2026-02-21

The tape — what was actually said

every capture on any idea holding BIL, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode

BI Bill Hagerty support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 1:09:37
This is about taking America's payment system in the 21st century. This is about making our nation more competitive. This is about expanding demand for the US Treasury securities that we issue. This is about the dominance of the US dollar.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 1:03:35
And in order to be in the US market, Tether is going to have to be 100% in treasuries, right? They're not going to be allowed to be, say, in real estate.
Gavin Baker Gavin Baker support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 1:02:35
I was always worried about stable coins, the risk to the dollar. But I think you make a very good point that when you are the dominant currency, they entrench the dominance.
BO Bo Hines support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 58:05
I'll make one more point before I jump off on the tether topic. The one thing that I think your viewers should know is, this year, they'll be the fourth largest purchaser of US Treasuries. I think that's something that we should really contemplate.
Sacks Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 46:51
What could be bad about allowing digital dollars, which extends the dollar's dominance online, so that it basically bolsters the dollar status as the world's reserve currency. Over time, as we get challengers from BRICS, for example, this is going to make the US dollar stronger. And every time a dollar token trades somewhere in the world on a crypto wallet, there has to be a physical dollar in a US bank account invested in a US treasury. And that creates demand for our debt, which is another positive thing.
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status E232 · 2025-06-21 ▶ 1:43:41
So it is true that the number one stablecoin issuer on the planet right now is an offshore company. ... And then also Tether will under this act, will have three years to come onshore. But the bottom line is they will have to operate in the United States. And that's a good thing for consumers. It's a good thing for the US.
LA Larry Summers oppose ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status E223 · 2025-04-11 ▶ 17:37
The foreign exchange market is very big, and it's a big referendum on whether people have confidence in the United States. And somehow, tariffs reduce imports, are supposed to reduce dollar selling and make the currency go up. And not only is the currency not going up, it's going down substantially.
Chamath Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status E222 · 2025-04-05 ▶ 1:22:00
The thing that US dollar stable coins does is it starts to replicate one of those advantages, which again, if you think about having a release fell for the US economy, and if we need it to, all of a sudden scream to 200% debt to GDP, the real question is where is the incremental net buyer of the US bond? And it could be the person that has to back the stable coin
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status E222 · 2025-04-05 ▶ 1:21:17
Well, and this is what the stable coins, I think, is set up to counter. ... force them to buy a certain percentage of treasuries, and allow them to give interest, which the stable coin bills are now debating if they should give that. So I don't know if you guys are watching that, but that would be the greatest way to keep a buyer for our currency.
BE Ben Shapiro oppose ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status E222 · 2025-04-05 ▶ 1:20:47
And then beyond that, you also have the problem of what happens if there's just less demand for dollars on the world stage. The exit of the dollar as the world's global reserve currency is going to have some pretty nasty spillover effects.
Friedberg Friedberg oppose ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status E222 · 2025-04-05 ▶ 1:21:13
But this is what I've been saying to Jay Cal, de-dollarization is what ends up happening.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status E216 · 2025-02-21 ▶ 10:56
Having USDC, having yours and other ones in the United States means we can regulate them and they have to buy treasuries. And so, okay, dollar supremacy continues, and that's fantastic.
PA Patrick Collison support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status E216 · 2025-02-21 ▶ 8:05
So I think it's a really big deal, certainly for people in those countries, and in some sense also for the US, because the dollar status as the world's reserve currency, I think is in the process of becoming much more deeply established.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Cash + front-end T-bills are the place to be in 2023 E146 · 2023-09-22 ▶ 1:20:32
You've got to beat 5%, 6%, 7%, or whatever people are going to get on those other instruments, corporate debt, you know, 10%, 11%, 12%. You've got a really hard bogey to beat here.
Chamath Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🏦 Cash + front-end T-bills are the place to be in 2023 E146 · 2023-09-22 ▶ 48:29
when prevailing rates are at five or six percent, and you can own those things or you can own structured credit for 11 to 13 percent, our business, unfortunately, does not look so good
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Cash + front-end T-bills are the place to be in 2023 E142 · 2023-08-18 ▶ 1:10:41
let's just point out the opportunity cost to you. You could buy treasuries that pay you 5.5%... Your actual cost on that capital that you're using to finance the building yourself to buy the debt is costing you 5.5% a year of risk-free income for the $9 million.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Cash + front-end T-bills are the place to be in 2023 E121 · 2023-03-24 ▶ 18:57
Then how bond holders will react to all of this stuff is they'll just start to find different assets, probably the front end of the curve, money market, cash, gold, and they'll just abandon all these assets.
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Cash + front-end T-bills are the place to be in 2023 E120 · 2023-03-17 ▶ 52:37
What I'd much rather see a startup do is buy 100% US T-bill backed money market fund run by the absolute biggest of the big financial institutions because you can get in and out of it at any time you want without paying a fee.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Cash + front-end T-bills are the place to be in 2023 E120 · 2023-03-17 ▶ 51:17
And then finally, you can go to TreasuryDirect.gov right now and buy short term government debt. And I literally have startups doing this who have major treasuries.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Cash + front-end T-bills are the place to be in 2023 E118 · 2023-03-03 ▶ 8:48
when the risk-free rate is somewhere north of 5 or 5.5% and banks are willing to give you 6.5% in the short term, you have to generate more than three times that to make an investment make sense when you're investing in the long term.
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Cash + front-end T-bills are the place to be in 2023 E110 · 2023-01-06 ▶ 1:04:31
Why wouldn't you just put all your money in short-term T-bills? You earn five, five and a half percent risk free. Like, set it and forget it. ... capital flows are moving hugely right now from equities into bonds,
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Cash + front-end T-bills are the place to be in 2023 E110 · 2023-01-06 ▶ 1:03:23
I would have a combination of cash and the front end of the yield curve. So T-bills all the way up to two-year bonds. ... probably by the end of this year, 5% pretty safely ... I would rather miss the first 10 or 15% of a rally