🤖 Biomanufacturing capacity is the bottleneck the US should own
Global fermentation capacity is ~25M liters, ~20M of it locked into beer/wine/pharma and only ~1M liters actually available for rent, while ~100 synthetic-biology companies need capacity to make clothing materials, food, animal protein and drugs. Friedberg's thesis is that the science is solved and capacity, not biology, is the binding constraint — 30-40 square miles of tanks and $300-400B would make all the world's protein — so whoever builds the tanks captures the industry.
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-05-01)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | AMRS | stock | PRIMARY | Amyris is the listed pure-play industrial-fermentation operator in 2021 — the most direct expression of 'fermentation capacity is scarce and valuable' |
| ▲ LONG | TWST | stock | adjacent | Twist Bioscience sells the synthetic DNA the ~100 synbio companies need to program the organisms Friedberg describes |
Mention log
“I still think biomanufacturing represents this, this complete great domain where the United States could build and lead ... There's a hundred synthetic biology companies that are looking to produce fermentation based products from materials for clothing, to food, to animal protein, to new drugs, and they can't get the capacity to make this stuff. ... This is where the United States can lead because we can make every material, every drug, and every consumable that the entire world would use using biomanufacturing.”
“27 million tanks made out of plastic. You could probably get that stuff produced, you know, a couple billion dollars. Find a piece of land that's 25 by 25 miles, that's near some water and put a nuclear power plant there. And you could suck up all the CO2 in the atmosphere. ... If we want to invest in infrastructure, this is the sort of thing that both solves climate change, creates jobs, and has extraordinary economic return potential built into it.”
“What we need is the stuff that the free market cannot afford to fund and stand up, like next-gen nuclear power stations, like biomanufacturing, like large-scale on-demand 3D printing systems. These are the sorts of infrastructure programs that the United States and our workforce could benefit from government subsidies to help the private markets get stood up.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -50.3 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E31 2021-05-01 | init | +45.2 | 45.2 | E31 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x3) [w=1.08] |
| E32 2021-05-13 | decay | -1.8 | 43.4 | E32 silent |
| E33 2021-05-22 | decay | -1.7 | 41.7 | E33 silent |
| E34 2021-05-31 | decay | -1.7 | 40.0 | E34 silent |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -1.6 | 38.4 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -1.5 | 36.9 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -1.5 | 35.4 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -1.4 | 34.0 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -1.4 | 32.6 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -1.3 | 31.3 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -1.3 | 30.1 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -1.2 | 28.9 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -1.2 | 27.7 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -1.1 | 26.6 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -1.1 | 25.5 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -1.0 | 24.5 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -1.0 | 23.5 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -0.9 | 22.6 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -0.9 | 21.7 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -0.9 | 20.8 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.8 | 20.0 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | reinforce | +13.1 | 32.2 | E54 Friedberg support x2 [w=1.08] |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -1.3 | 31.0 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | reinforce | +8.9 | 39.9 | E56 Friedberg support x1 [w=1.08] |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -1.6 | 38.3 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -1.5 | 36.8 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -1.5 | 35.3 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -1.4 | 33.9 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -1.4 | 32.5 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -1.3 | 31.2 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -1.2 | 30.0 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -1.2 | 28.8 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -1.2 | 27.6 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -1.1 | 26.5 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -1.1 | 25.5 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -1.0 | 24.4 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -1.0 | 23.5 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.9 | 22.5 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.9 | 21.6 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.9 | 20.8 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.8 | 19.9 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.8 | 19.1 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.7 | 17.6 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.7 | 16.9 | E78 silent |