🌍 Tariff receipts plus cut savings re-rate the US and pull in global capital
Chamath's arithmetic off the May deficit Sankey: tariffs are run-rating $300-400bn a year above forecast on the receipts side, and a 100bp cut would save roughly another $300bn of interest on the debt, so inside 60 days the American balance sheet has to be re-forecast about $600bn better than the current snapshot implies. With the deficit trajectory improving rather than deteriorating there is nowhere else for global risk capital to go - Japan and Europe lose the flow and every marginal risk dollar rotates into US assets.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 61.0 WATCH
EMBER
band · contested
▲ LONG SPY
expression · bullish macro
HIT
outcome · R +14.8% · α +0.0%
2025-12-13
window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEA ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it before trading (ticker view →)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2025-06-13 → 2025-12-13 — first mention + 6-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG SPY (primary play). SPY rose 14.8% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +14.8% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +14.8% → α = +14.8 − (+14.8) = +0.0% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses. (SPY is itself the primary here — scored on R alone.)
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 14.8, α 0.0)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Sacks | opposed: Friedberg | benchmark-primary: scored on R alone | proxy-sensitive: UUP→MISS (+2.9%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-06-13)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | SPY | etf | PRIMARY | US equities are where the rotating global risk dollar lands |
| ▲ LONG | UUP | etf | adjacent | dollar bid from the inflow and the improved fiscal trajectory |
Mention log
Chamath
macro w=1.06 · n=47
· E231 (2025-06-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 59:25
SUPPORT
· horizon 2mo
“So if you add these two things together, we are in the next 60 days going to have to re-forecast the American balance sheet where this is, or we're actually going to be able to positively forecast an extra 600 billion, 300 billion of incremental revenue, and 300 billion of savings. Jason, if that happens, watch out. What does that mean, watch out? It means that every single risk dollar is going to run to America. Every single one.”
Chamath
macro w=1.06 · n=47
· E234 (2025-07-04) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 48:45
SUPPORT
“And so as long as that's the case, I think you're going to continue to have a bid for equities. If all of a sudden the MAG 7 decided to delist and not be American companies, and all of a sudden showed up in the CAC 50 in France, yeah, we'd be in big trouble. But I don't think that's going to happen. And so as long as there's American ingenuity and American supremacy, again, which goes back to the other thing, which is we can't kill these golden geese, nor should we kill the emerging and growing golden goose, which is AI. And as long as those things are the same, there will be a constant bid for American assets.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -36.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E231 2025-06-13 | init | +44.7 | 44.7 | E231 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x3) [w=1.06] |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -1.8 | 42.9 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | oppose | -11.1 | 31.8 | E233 Friedberg opposes x2 [w=0.93] |
| E233 2025-06-28 | reinforce | +13.1 | 44.9 | E233 Chamath support x3 [w=1.06] |
| E234 2025-07-04 | reinforce | +10.6 | 55.4 | E234 Chamath support x3 [w=1.06] |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -2.2 | 53.2 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -2.1 | 51.1 | E236 silent |
| E237 2025-08-01 | reinforce | +9.9 | 61.0 | E237 Sacks support x1 (new voice) [w=1.12] |
| E238 2025-08-09 | decay | -2.4 | 58.5 | E238 silent |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -2.3 | 56.2 | E239 silent |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -2.2 | 53.9 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -2.2 | 51.8 | E241 silent |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -2.1 | 49.7 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -2.0 | 47.7 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -1.9 | 45.8 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -1.8 | 44.0 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | decay | -1.8 | 42.2 | E246 silent |
| E247 2025-10-17 | decay | -1.7 | 40.5 | E247 silent |
| E248 2025-10-24 | decay | -1.6 | 38.9 | E248 silent |
| E249 2025-10-31 | decay | -1.6 | 37.4 | E249 silent |
| E250 2025-11-07 | decay | -1.5 | 35.9 | E250 silent |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -1.4 | 34.4 | E251 silent |
| E252 2025-11-22 | decay | -1.4 | 33.1 | E252 silent |
| E253 2025-12-06 | decay | -1.3 | 31.7 | E253 silent |
| E254 2025-12-13 | decay | -1.3 | 30.5 | E254 silent |