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Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 State-government financing stress surfaces in 2026 E279 · 2026-07-03 ▶ 1:29:59

I think what will happen is that you will wipe out the California pensions and you'll wipe out the pension obligations and you'll do some sort of negotiated settlement... we're going to deal with the California bankruptcy in the next 10 years and it will unfortunately result in a complete restructuring of those debt and obligations.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 State-government financing stress surfaces in 2026 E279 · 2026-07-03 ▶ 1:21:48

California's state budget ballooned from 215 billion in 2019 to 355 billion today... there's somewhere between 20 and 40 billion of debt that they pencil away and call it a balanced budget... one to one and a half percent of personal income is leaving the state every year... out years, 2028-29, the projection is $40 billion a year in budget deficits... $1.4 trillion in public debt... unfunded pension liabilities... closer to $1.5 trillion... senior to the bonds of the state because of the California Rule... this state is on the brink of defaults that are going to be so significant that if the federal government was called in to bail them out... that's what the story will be over the next decade.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 State-government financing stress surfaces in 2026 E264 · 2026-03-13 ▶ 1:10:30

The Hoover Institution basically ran this Monte Carlo simulation. ... in 71% of those runs it comes out with a negative NPV. ... that's what's happened just by making the threat. Washington had a 23 hour debate and passed the law. ... in 18 or 24 months, it'll be as bad or worse than California.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 State-government financing stress surfaces in 2026 E259 · 2026-01-30 ▶ 1:25:33

California has a trillion dollar fiscal cliff coming up because of the pension obligations. ... there's precedent in California state court that you cannot change pension benefits ... there are two ways that California can be saved. ... the state has the ability to declare bankruptcy. Everything else is all about how long are you keeping the state alive for.

Chamath support ×1 ▼ on 🏦 State-government financing stress surfaces in 2026 E258 · 2026-01-17 ▶ 48:11

California will go through tremendous pain... as long as there is a 49-51 kind of a balance, I don't think anything can really happen without meaningfully deep austerity in California... in 28 or 30 or 32, this will rear its ugly head. It will be better architected and there will be no way around it.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 State-government financing stress surfaces in 2026 E258 · 2026-01-17 ▶ 48:10

I'd rather have an internet issue and keep 100% of my money than lose 5% plus 13.3 per year. ... I do think it's probably slightly more likely than not to pass. Once ... when a state shows you who they are, believe them the first time. This is the direction of travel in California,

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 State-government financing stress surfaces in 2026 E258 · 2026-01-17 ▶ 40:59

in California we're looking at a 30 billion a year deficit. We've got 500 billion of debt and we have a nearly one trillion dollar pension obligation that is not funded. That money is going to come from somewhere or it is not going to get paid. ... everyone is looking for a place to go.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 State-government financing stress surfaces in 2026 E257 · 2026-01-10 ▶ 40:55

state governments are going to have a real problem with finding financing ... folks are going to wake up and be like, holy s**t, there is a ginormous hole in these states and their obligations.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E220 · 2025-03-22 ▶ 1:01:21

One of the biggest mistakes that I think Janet Yellen affected was this continued issuance of money on the short end of the curve to finance these deficits, which gives you, you inherit, an incredibly difficult challenge, I think, over the next nine months. I think there's like nine or 10 trillion that has to get refinanced.

Jason support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E216 · 2025-02-21 ▶ 59:44

And we plundered and we wasted them by adding 16 trillion to the debt during a good time. Like, what's going to happen during a bad time? Just absolutely brutal.

There's two deflationary things that we need. One is DOGE, and two is where AI is going to take us if it really does its thing, and that will keep us in an okay spot economically. But this spend has to go or we're in Greek territory, if that makes sense.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E213 · 2025-01-31 ▶ 1:40:59

So we don't have a lot of room here where you can walk rates up to 5.5%, 6% without a lot of things starting to break.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E213 · 2025-01-31 ▶ 1:39:29

Watch the D'Aulio interview because this is exactly the topic he covers. As we end up needing to refinance this debt, the rates climb, the appetite isn't there, and it becomes a spiral. That's why we have to cut fast in terms of the deficit to basically attract the market.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E206 · 2024-12-07 ▶ 11:03

And that leads to excessive spending, and that leads to the debt problem. And the debt problem creates this kind of arithmetic debt, debt spiral, which is something you don't want to find yourself in

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 4:25

If it doesn't get fixed, as I've said countless times before, we are in an arithmetic debt-depth spiral.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 26:28

Right now, we're unsustainable. The bond markets know it. Inflation remains persistently high, around 3%.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E204 · 2024-11-16 ▶ 18:59

if you're going to run 8% of GDP level deficits for the next four or five or six years, you're going to have the 10 year at 7 to 8%. That's just mathematical.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E202 · 2024-11-01 ▶ 16:08

You cannot have a nonprofit entity representing the plurality of the economic activity of a country and expect the capital markets to function properly.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E202 · 2024-11-01 ▶ 22:29

this becomes the compounding problem when your debt to GDP reaches a certain level and you don't reduce federal spending fast enough, it becomes a compounding problem you cannot get away from

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E202 · 2024-11-01 ▶ 13:13

we have this real issue where as the Fed is cutting short rates, long rates are not going down. And I think that is because of the government deficit and the government debt

Jason support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 18:40

a little bit of austerity measures coming at some point

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 44:18

How can you get 4.25% when you have all of these risks looming over the next 10 years?

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 21:55

I think it is inevitable that the federal reserve in the United States is going to need to buy the debt

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 46:55

we normalized emergency conditions and consequence-free spending by the US government

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E198 · 2024-10-03 ▶ 1:09:08

On the first day of the new fiscal year, federal debt jumped by $204 billion in one day. Federal debt now stands at $35.7 trillion. And the biggest challenge we have in the year ahead is that $10 trillion of the outstanding debt comes up for refinance. It's going to refinance at around 4%. So we're going to be adding another $300 billion in new interest expense next fiscal year, plus the Biden administration has proposed a $7.2 trillion budget for next year, which will inevitably lead to another $2 trillion of deficit spending, which means that by the end of 2025, we could be staring at $40 trillion of federal debt. And if you do the math on that at 4% interest, it's $1.6 trillion a year of interest expense a year just on interest expense on the outstanding debt, which effectively begins to eclipse the entire federal budget very quickly