🏛️ Escalating global conflict becomes the political outlet for inflation

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E55 (2021-11-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 47:51 SUPPORT

“The fourth option that people don't talk about, which I think may end up becoming an important option, not kind of oblique option, but more kind of backdrop, is to start a war. ... But the premise that conflict can improve the economy is an important backdrop that starts to play into policy decisions that might get made over the next couple of months and quarters. ... I predict escalating global conflict. That'll be my prediction to mark the Q4.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E55 (2021-11-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 53:24 OPPOSE

“But we don't need it. It's not going to solve anything politically. OK, I mean, World War Two, you know, famously got us out of the Great Depression because that did stimulate demand. But in the situation we're in today, we have too much demand. ... What we have is a supply shortage and devoting resources, taking them away from the productive economy to go to war would only exacerbate the problem and make it even worse.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E55 (2021-11-13) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:04:54 SUPPORT

“I think they, you know, I hate to say that Friedberg is wrong, because I don't think in this case I can. I do think that there is some left tail risk for like a crazy wag the dog moment in Taiwan. It would be really scary. Really scary.”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E65 (2022-01-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 18:05 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“I did say, you know, at the end of the year, I do think that we're in this kind of economic status right now that if there were an opportunity for conflict, we're probably more likely to want to engage in conflict than not, because it does create something that we all get behind. ... I think the economic seed is planted for us to be in some sort of conflict this year.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E65 (2022-01-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 34:41 OPPOSE

“The thing here, I think what de-escalates all of this is economic sanctions and monetary impact, because if Nord Stream 2 doesn't get turned on, which is in Germany's control, that has a huge economic impact to Russia. ... I do think the way this gets de-escalated is through money. If you severely impinge Russia's ability to grow their economy, that foments a lot of anger at home.”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E70 (2022-02-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 11:14 SUPPORT

“This is a big part of what I tried to point out at our prediction show at the end of last year. If a country is happy, if the economy is growing, if there isn't significant risk of inflation, no one wants to go to war. When those are not the case, there's a tendency to say we got to do something. ... This is not a surprise that Putin did this. This has been a long time coming.”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E90 (2022-08-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 27:56 SUPPORT

“There is currently an indulgence in conflict, and I think that that indulgence will cause more harm than good, particularly for these financial markets that we're commenting on right now in the months ahead.”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E97 (2022-09-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 41:14 SUPPORT

“It felt like at the end of last year, you guys remember, I thought like conflict was likely this year. I don't think that the conditions that I was referencing have really gotten better. I think they've gotten worse.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E97 (2022-09-23) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 44:19 SUPPORT

“I think he's more right than wrong. I think that when things aren't easy, you need to find sort of distractions, essentially, to get people to focus on other things so that the core problem isn't as obvious.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E100 (2022-10-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:27:08 OPPOSE

“But my prediction is that we will not enter a new war with rates flexing up as aggressively as they are.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E100 (2022-10-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:07:42 OPPOSE

“So Chamath is right that we've never really had to choose between guns and butter before in the past. It was just, let's just do both and we'll rack up more national debt. I do think there will be more and more pressure to question this type of spending and why we've already given Ukraine $80 billion in handouts when we can't afford to basically pay for major entitlements at home.”