🏛️ China takes Taiwan and the silicon chokepoint forces US intervention

“if they decide to cut us off, you know, in ours, they will invade Taiwan. I've said this before, but I think that they will. ... And we will have no choice except to deploy troops into Taiwan because in the absence of the silicon that we need from TSMC and a couple of other manufacturers there, we have zero capability here.”

“Yeah, what is the accomplishment that's going to really put him in that league? And you'd have to say it's the annexation of Taiwan. I mean, that's the thing that he must be looking to do before, you know, his time to reunify China. That's the thing that could put him in that league. ... And it's like the Persian Gulf because the new oil are the semiconductors, the chips that are fabbed in Taiwan at TSMC. And so all the resources that we're dependent on for the new economy are all right there.”

“his motivation will be, it seems, at least to bring China back into that spectrum of power, which is really about a consolidated country and a single nation state. And that has to include Taiwan. It can't it can't not. So to your point, David, it's almost more motivation for him to go off on some crazy adventure and try to reclaim it.”

“I've been watching the Taiwan situation like a hawk. And I don't know if you saw this this week to go off on another tangent, but the US is testing Israelis Iron Dome and Guam as a defense against Chinese cruise missiles. Obviously, for possible deployment in Taiwan.”

“I care about the fact that our economy could turn on a dime if China invades Taiwan. I care about that.”

“So I think there is good news where part of the strategic vital interests for Taiwan is because they have critical resources that we need, and we depend on, and specifically those are semiconductors. We have now, I think, allocated 50, $100 billion of capital, of CapEx across a bunch of companies that have committed to building domestic capability.”

“Taiwan is a much more complicated situation. I do think we have a vital national interest there.”

“we need to build an alliance to deal with the eventuality of China going into the South China Sea and taking over Taiwan.”

“we can all support that because we know that Xi is watching. ... if Taiwan really wants to be independent, every adult there needs to learn how to fight and they need to have weapons.”

“what do you think the China calculus on Taiwan is looking what's happening to Russia? ... It's completely off the table, completely off the table.”

“They would never consider invading Taiwan knowing that it would put Apple in a position or other companies that are entwined in the Chinese economy.”

“Okay, and you know what's also highly predictable? Is that China considers Taiwan a renegade province. ... it will be even worse with Taiwan. I mean, if we think that this is difficult. Can you imagine this kind of escalation with a capable adversary?”

“If chips are the new oil, Taiwan is the new Middle East or the new Persian Gulf, and it is a very dangerous situation for us to be completely dependent on Taiwan.”

“I think there is bipartisan support now to defend Taiwan. I actually think that is in the cards. I think there's a very high probability that we actually end up in a war with China.”

“No, but so six months from now, when all the fruits and vegetables that have been embargoed and not sent to Taiwan and then the sand that allows them to make chips continues to now flow, do you think that they'll still be positive about the trip?”

“I would agree with that. But explain why you think there's going to be a war, because I think a lot of people think there's way too much at stake here for there to be a war. So there is going to be some sort of negotiated settlement in the South China Sea.”