SoftBank Group Corp.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Stargate's $500B is marketing, not a real capex commitment E213 · 2025-01-31 ▶ 1:05:54

Well, it seems like there's some degree of relationship between the Stargate announcement with Masa and Sam standing up there with Larry and then Sacha showing up in the conversation as well. And this raise and the idea that more hardware, more infrastructure faster creates a moat. And I guess that's the real thing you have to believe, which becomes harder to believe in the context of what happened in the last week.

Friedberg oppose ×1 ▼ on 🤖 Stargate's $500B is marketing, not a real capex commitment E212 · 2025-01-25 ▶ 1:23:41

The obvious consequence of this data center and chip infrastructure effort, which is obviously going to happen with or without government involvement, is an increase in electricity demand.

I think to me, the real question, guys, is, do we ultimately believe that you can get an ROI on that 500 billion? Because if you can, there will be people that will want to fund it, right? You can do a data center by data center, you can do it actually at the GPU level, right? So the financing is there. To me, the 500 billion doesn't scare me from an absolute number.

Jason support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Stargate's $500B is marketing, not a real capex commitment E212 · 2025-01-25 ▶ 1:16:18

And I don't know how you get a return on 500 billion invested in this. That's the other thing. And I don't know if that's the real number.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🤖 Stargate's $500B is marketing, not a real capex commitment E212 · 2025-01-25 ▶ 1:20:28

I think the spending money part, to be honest, is more of a gimmick than it is a technical commitment. So I guess if they want to spend the money, go ahead. ... So I kind of thought that these things were just joint. And so my takeaway was entirely different. It was not a commentary on Mosa or Larry or Sam. I think all of those three companies are frankly very good. It was more a comment that you have to be very careful to protect the president's legacy

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Private venture marks are stale by design — nobody is paid to fix them E188 · 2024-07-19 ▶ 1:06:25

Normally, what would happen in terms of figuring out the price is you'd want to use some validated secondary price, but obviously, it would have to be a market clearing price where new money wants to come in at that price. This is a little bit different because it's their pre-existing fund that's buying at that price.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 📈 Private venture marks are stale by design — nobody is paid to fix them E188 · 2024-07-19 ▶ 1:03:23

But I don't like it. I don't like these kinds of things where one fund is basically scratching the back of another fund. It always tends to be the case that this stuff on the surface looks a little smelly and can be a little unseemly.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 📈 The IPO window reopens - but only at a real discount to 2021 marks E171 · 2024-03-22 ▶ 1:02:18

But like this last three or four weeks, I think people have been so excited and rearing to go.

Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 The IPO window reopens - but only at a real discount to 2021 marks E168 · 2024-03-01 ▶ 1:19:35

The issue with this user base is they're incredibly sophisticated internet users who don't click on ads and are kind of anti ads as opposed to, you know, the general population on a Facebook or a generic service.

Sacks oppose ×1 ▲ on 📈 The IPO window reopens - but only at a real discount to 2021 marks E168 · 2024-03-01 ▶ 1:19:20

But you can see that as a challenge or an opportunity, because if there are ARPU is only 10% of Facebook's, there's a lot of headroom there to grow it.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 📈 The IPO window reopens - but only at a real discount to 2021 marks E168 · 2024-03-01 ▶ 1:18:03

It's kind of like in the mid, you know, kind of two, three, four billion dollar ish range. The big problem is the ARPU, because these are not users that represent sort of Facebook's bread and butter.

Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 📈 The IPO window reopens - but only at a real discount to 2021 marks E168 · 2024-03-01 ▶ 1:15:24

I think like for you to make an investment at a $5 billion valuation here, you've really got to believe that the growth continues at this rate and it doesn't revert back to the mean growth rate of the last couple of years of basically 5%, which is roughly flatlined. ... I mean, you could argue it's probably worth, in the best case, in the $2 to $3 billion kind of valuation range

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Arm's post-earnings rip is a float squeeze, not a repricing E166 · 2024-02-16 ▶ 5:51

there was almost an entire turn of the float that was short. So I don't know how much of this reaction was just an enormous short squeeze of people that were largely long other chip companies.

Sacks oppose ×1 ▼ on 📈 SoftBank is a forced seller — the Arm IPO is balance-sheet deleveraging E166 · 2024-02-16 ▶ 8:36

he's a gambler and he is playing a power loss. So he only needs one really big return to basically make up for all the mistakes. And it seems like he's hit that once again.

Friedberg oppose ×2 ▼ on 📈 SoftBank is a forced seller — the Arm IPO is balance-sheet deleveraging E166 · 2024-02-16 ▶ 5:31

we may be seeing Masa with his whole AI vision story that he's been telling for seven years, we may see Masa clawing his way out of the hole

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 📈 The IPO window reopens - but only at a real discount to 2021 marks E164 · 2024-02-02 ▶ 1:12:25

The $5 billion valuation seems, I think, pretty good. I mean, is it down from 10 at the peak in 2021? Sure, but everything is down since that peak.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 📈 The IPO window reopens - but only at a real discount to 2021 marks E164 · 2024-02-02 ▶ 1:09:30

And I think that that's really the thing that will determine whether it's worth 5 billion or 10 billion or frankly 2 billion.

Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 The IPO window reopens - but only at a real discount to 2021 marks E164 · 2024-02-02 ▶ 1:08:20

And so if it goes out at $5, it's going to be between a 50% and two-thirds haircut. ... we talked about this a bunch, the downrod IPOs, Instacart, I think, being the best example.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Private venture marks are stale by design — nobody is paid to fix them E161 · 2024-01-13 ▶ 55:36

I think a lot of these startups now, if their shares were to be freely traded, would be trading below ... the last round's mark, so they don't want it.

Chamath oppose ×2 ▲ on 📈 The IPO window reopens - but only at a real discount to 2021 marks E158 · 2023-12-23 ▶ 36:50

the capital markets in the United States are not ready or not in a position to support all this IPO liquidity. Why? The banks won't underwrite. There aren't enough researchers, research analysts that will cover these stocks.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 📈 Private venture marks are stale by design — nobody is paid to fix them E156 · 2023-12-08 ▶ 41:14

ask a private equity investor what they would buy your position for. That's why I spend a lot of time talking to them because I want to know what this stuff is really worth.

Sacks oppose ×2 ▲ on 📈 The IPO window reopens - but only at a real discount to 2021 marks E151 · 2023-10-27 ▶ 1:03:12

Clavio is down 16% since this IPO ... even for the names that just IPO-ed, it's not looking too good

Chamath oppose ×2 ▲ on 📈 The IPO window reopens - but only at a real discount to 2021 marks E151 · 2023-10-27 ▶ 49:49

the three IPOs we've had, have not fared particularly well, and the market just seems to get harder and harder for tech companies, even profitable ones

Jason support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Private venture marks are stale by design — nobody is paid to fix them E151 · 2023-10-27 ▶ 1:00:27

I've been approached by a number of people who are doing, buying strips of GP interest and strips of LP interest in venture funds

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Private venture marks are stale by design — nobody is paid to fix them E151 · 2023-10-27 ▶ 1:00:58

when they have definite buyer interests at a certain price, that tells you that the market now has found or is in the process of finding the market clearing price