📈 Direct listings top-tick on the opening print — sell day one
Direct listings clear at their highest price on the open print and grind one-way down from there (Spotify languished two years, Slack until the Salesforce bid), so shareholders receiving distributed stock should sell immediately rather than trickle out.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 35.2 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT COIN
expression · bearish equities
HIT
outcome · R +55.8% · α +48.9%
2022-04-17
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-04-17 → 2022-04-17 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT COIN (primary play). COIN fell 55.8% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +55.8% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +6.8%
→ α = +55.8 − (+6.8) = +48.9%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +62.6% — did COIN move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 55.8, α 48.9)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-04-17)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | COIN | stock | PRIMARY | largest direct listing ever, three days old at time of episode and the live test of the claim |
| ▼ SHORT | RBLX | stock | adjacent | direct listed weeks earlier, the other live data point cited |
Mention log
Chamath
equities w=0.84 · n=160
· E29 (2021-04-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 3:45
SUPPORT
“I think the price action on direct listings shows you that you top tick the top price at the moment on the open print. And so, you know, if you're going to sell, you're probably better off selling absolutely right away. And if you look at the price action on direct listings, it's basically been one way direction down from the point of the direct listing.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -29.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E29 2021-04-17 | init | +35.2 | 35.2 | E29 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.84] |
| E30 2021-04-23 | decay | -1.4 | 33.8 | E30 silent |
| E31 2021-05-01 | decay | -1.4 | 32.4 | E31 silent |
| E32 2021-05-13 | decay | -1.3 | 31.1 | E32 silent |
| E33 2021-05-22 | decay | -1.2 | 29.9 | E33 silent |
| E34 2021-05-31 | decay | -1.2 | 28.7 | E34 silent |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -1.1 | 27.5 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -1.1 | 26.4 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -1.1 | 25.4 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -1.0 | 24.4 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -1.0 | 23.4 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -0.9 | 22.5 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -0.9 | 21.6 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -0.9 | 20.7 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -0.8 | 19.9 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -0.8 | 19.1 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -0.8 | 18.3 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -0.7 | 17.6 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -0.7 | 16.9 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -0.7 | 16.2 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -0.6 | 13.2 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -0.5 | 12.7 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.5 | 12.2 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.5 | 11.7 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.4 | 10.8 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.4 | 8.4 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.3 | 7.5 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.3 | 7.2 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.3 | 6.9 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.3 | 6.1 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.2 | 5.8 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E76 silent |