📈 Direct listings top-tick on the opening print — sell day one

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2021-04-17 → 2022-04-17 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT COIN (primary play). COIN fell 55.8% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +55.8% (the call made money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +6.8% → vs SPY = +55.8 − (+6.8) = +48.9% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
   Direction-only read: +62.6% — did COIN move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   ▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 55.8, vs SPY 48.9)

   · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   · WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath 42%

1 scoring event · 100% of moves

+42.0 → net +42.0

⏳ decay drained -35.3 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one