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🪙 DAOs become a real capital-formation primitive

Jason's thesis off the failed ConstitutionDAO bid (Sotheby's, 2021-11-18): a code-governed DAO that assembled $46M from ~20,000 people in 48 hours is a genuinely new capital-formation and fractional-ownership rail — the first crypto use case that beats its analog alternative — and it compounds from here ($400M DAO within two years, $4B within a decade) while forcing US accreditation rules to loosen. Chamath, Friedberg and Sacks all take the other side: it is fractionalized ownership of a trash asset that proved no governance, an ICO in new clothes, and it gets pulled under securities regulation the moment retail loses money. Expressed through ETH, the chain DAOs are formed, funded and gas-metered on — which is also exactly where Chamath aims his counter.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 37.7 EMBER
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG cg:ethereum
expression · bullish crypto
MISS
outcome · R -54.1% · α -54.3%
2023-11-20
window closed

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2021-11-20 → 2023-11-20 — first mention + 24-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▲ LONG cg:ethereum (primary play). cg:ethereum fell 54.1% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -54.1% (the call lost money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +0.2%α = -54.1 − (+0.2) = -54.3% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
  4. Rule fired:
    · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5
    · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0
    ▶ MISS — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Friedberg, Jason | opposed: Sacks

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-11-20)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▲ LONG cg:ethereumcrypto PRIMARY DAOs are formed, funded and gas-metered on Ethereum; DAO adoption is incremental ETH demand, and Chamath's counter is specifically that ETH's transaction layer cannot carry it
▲ LONG COINstock adjacent listed proxy for on-chain capital formation activity and retail on-ramps (via merged idea dao-collective-capital-formation-2021)
▲ LONG cg:solanacrypto adjacent the cheaper/faster venue Jason names as the fix for the gas fees that trapped ConstitutionDAO's $200 contributors

Mention log

Jason
Jason crypto w=0.69 · n=13 · E56 (2021-11-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 28:13 SUPPORT · horizon 24mo
“What I always look at when I see new technologies doing something is I just imagine if it 10x'd and what that would look like, and if it worked, and then I just 10x it one more time. So what we're going to see, I predict, is this $40 million dollar dollar will turn into a $400 million one in the next two years, and then a $4 billion one in the next 10”
Chamath
Chamath crypto w=1.00 · n=20 · E56 (2021-11-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 14:04 OPPOSE
“The only fractionalized asset that has ever been proven to appreciate reliably are stocks. ... But I do think that you're overblowing this one example, because I don't think this showed any of that. I think that this showed how unreliable and useless Ethereum is as a transactional layer for these things. You know, the fact that these poor people now have money stuck in a dow that they can't get out of, because the gas fees would negate their contribution.”
Friedberg
Friedberg crypto w=1.08 · n=12 · E56 (2021-11-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 18:32 OPPOSE
“My point is really that I think structurally what's going to happen is there are going to be more of these things that are going to show up that will rip people off and that will heighten regulatory interest and people will come along and they'll start to clamp down on this stuff.”
Sacks
Sacks crypto w=1.11 · n=18 · E56 (2021-11-20) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 11:16 OPPOSE
“That was ICOs. You could have done the exact same thing before. ... So it's probably simultaneously true that this thing was massively overhyped, while also being the case that it's a worthwhile experiment that may lead to useful innovation in the future.”
Jason
Jason crypto w=0.69 · n=13 · E60 (2021-12-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:15:02 SUPPORT · horizon 120mo
“I say DAOs because I believe that they will become legal and global capital formation for the first time on an instant basis will exist. And I believe 40 million is the dry run for the Constitution. 400 million and 4 billion will happen in the next 10 years to do bigger and bigger challenges.”
Chamath
Chamath crypto w=1.00 · n=20 · E60 (2021-12-23) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 23:56 SUPPORT
“This was the year that loose affiliations of individuals could compete on a level playing field with organized capital. And I think that that's a really important trend for the future.”
Friedberg
Friedberg crypto w=1.08 · n=12 · E60 (2021-12-23) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 6:01 SUPPORT
“And it is a very serious threat to the current system of politics and economics and social order. ... And so I would say the blockchain has really kind of created a new model for organization amongst humans that is waking us up in the political class more than anything else.”
Jason
Jason crypto w=0.69 · n=13 · E75 (2022-04-09) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:02:29 SUPPORT
“you could buy shares, you could lead a group, start a DAO, start a hedge fund, whatever, build a block to buy a bunch of shares. And then you could get a board seat on Twitter”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Jason
Jason w=0.69
3 scoring events · 43% of moves
+43.8 → net +43.8
Chamath
Chamath w=1.00
2 scoring events · 27% of moves
+12.6 / -14.4 → net -1.8
Friedberg
Friedberg w=1.08
2 scoring events · 17% of moves
+16.2 / -1.3 → net +14.9
Sacks
Sacks w=1.11
1 scoring event · 13% of moves
+0.0 / -13.3 → net -13.3

⏳ decay drained -35.3 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E56 2021-11-20 init +29.1 29.1 E56 born by Jason (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.69]
E56 2021-11-20 oppose -13.3 15.7 E56 Sacks opposes x2 [w=1.11]
E56 2021-11-20 oppose -14.4 1.3 E56 Chamath opposes x3
E56 2021-11-20 oppose -1.3 0.0 E56 Friedberg opposes x3 [w=1.08]
E57 2021-12-04 decay · 0.0 E57 silent
E58 2021-12-11 decay · 0.0 E58 silent
E59 2021-12-17 decay · 0.0 E59 silent
E60 2021-12-23 reinforce +16.2 16.2 E60 Friedberg support x2 (flipped from oppose) [w=1.08]
E60 2021-12-23 reinforce +12.6 28.8 E60 Chamath support x2 (flipped from oppose)
E60 2021-12-23 reinforce +8.9 37.7 E60 Jason support x3 [w=0.69]
E61 2021-12-29 decay -0.8 36.9 E61 silent
E62 2022-01-08 decay -0.7 36.2 E62 silent
E63 2022-01-15 decay -0.7 35.5 E63 silent
E64 2022-01-22 decay -0.7 34.8 E64 silent
E65 2022-01-29 decay -0.7 34.1 E65 silent
E66 2022-02-05 decay -0.7 33.4 E66 silent
E67 2022-02-12 decay -0.7 32.7 E67 silent
E68 2022-02-19 decay -0.7 32.1 E68 silent
E70 2022-02-24 decay -0.6 31.4 E70 silent
E71 2022-03-05 decay -0.6 30.8 E71 silent
E72 2022-03-19 decay -0.6 30.2 E72 silent
E73 2022-03-26 decay -0.6 29.6 E73 silent
E74 2022-04-01 decay -0.6 29.0 E74 silent
E75 2022-04-09 reinforce +5.9 34.9 E75 Jason support x1 [w=0.69]
E76 2022-04-16 decay -0.7 34.2 E76 silent
E77 2022-04-23 decay -0.7 33.5 E77 silent
E78 2022-04-30 decay -0.7 32.8 E78 silent
E79 2022-05-07 decay -0.7 32.2 E79 silent
E80 2022-05-13 decay -0.6 31.5 E80 silent
E81 2022-05-23 decay -0.6 30.9 E81 silent
E82 2022-05-24 decay -0.6 30.3 E82 silent
E84 2022-06-24 decay -0.6 29.7 E84 silent
E85 2022-06-30 decay -0.6 29.1 E85 silent
E86 2022-07-08 decay -0.6 28.5 E86 silent
E87 2022-07-14 decay -0.6 27.9 E87 silent
E88 2022-07-22 decay -0.6 27.4 E88 silent
E89 2022-07-29 decay -0.5 26.8 E89 silent
E90 2022-08-05 decay -0.5 26.3 E90 silent
E91 2022-08-13 decay -0.5 25.8 E91 silent
E92 2022-08-20 decay -0.5 25.2 E92 silent
E93 2022-08-26 decay -0.5 24.7 E93 silent
E94 2022-09-01 decay -0.5 24.2 E94 silent
E95 2022-09-10 decay -0.5 23.8 E95 silent
E96 2022-09-17 decay -0.5 23.3 E96 silent
E97 2022-09-23 decay -0.5 22.8 E97 silent
E98 2022-10-01 decay -0.5 22.4 E98 silent
E99 2022-10-07 decay -0.4 21.9 E99 silent
E100 2022-10-14 decay -0.4 21.5 E100 silent
E101 2022-10-22 decay -0.4 21.0 E101 silent
E102 2022-10-29 decay -0.4 20.6 E102 silent
E103 2022-11-05 decay -0.4 20.2 E103 silent
E105 2022-11-19 decay -0.4 19.8 E105 silent
E106 2022-12-03 decay -0.4 19.4 E106 silent
E107 2022-12-10 decay -0.4 19.0 E107 silent
E108 2022-12-16 decay -0.4 18.6 E108 silent
E109 2022-12-24 decay -0.4 18.3 E109 silent
E110 2023-01-06 decay -0.4 17.9 E110 silent
E111 2023-01-13 decay -0.4 17.5 E111 silent
E112 2023-01-20 decay -0.4 17.2 E112 silent
E113 2023-01-27 decay -0.3 16.9 E113 silent
E114 2023-02-04 decay -0.3 16.5 E114 silent
E115 2023-02-11 decay -0.3 16.2 E115 silent
E116 2023-02-17 decay -0.3 15.9 E116 silent
E118 2023-03-03 decay -0.3 15.5 E118 silent
E119 2023-03-11 decay -0.3 15.2 E119 silent
E120 2023-03-17 decay -0.3 14.9 E120 silent
E121 2023-03-24 decay -0.3 14.6 E121 silent
E122 2023-03-31 decay -0.3 14.3 E122 silent
E123 2023-04-07 decay -0.3 14.1 E123 silent
E124 2023-04-14 decay -0.3 13.8 E124 silent
E125 2023-04-21 decay -0.3 13.5 E125 silent
E126 2023-04-28 decay -0.3 13.2 E126 silent
E128 2023-05-12 decay -0.3 13.0 E128 silent
E129 2023-05-19 decay -0.3 12.7 E129 silent
E130 2023-05-26 decay -0.3 12.4 E130 silent
E131 2023-06-02 decay -0.2 12.2 E131 silent
E132 2023-06-10 decay -0.2 12.0 E132 silent
E133 2023-06-16 decay -0.2 11.7 E133 silent
E134 2023-06-24 decay -0.2 11.5 E134 silent
E135 2023-07-01 decay -0.2 11.3 E135 silent
E136 2023-07-09 decay -0.2 11.0 E136 silent
E137 2023-07-14 decay -0.2 10.8 E137 silent
E139 2023-07-27 decay -0.2 10.6 E139 silent
E140 2023-08-04 decay -0.2 10.4 E140 silent
E141 2023-08-11 decay -0.2 10.2 E141 silent
E142 2023-08-18 decay -0.2 10.0 E142 silent
E143 2023-08-25 decay -0.2 9.8 E143 silent
E144 2023-09-01 decay -0.2 9.6 E144 silent
E146 2023-09-22 decay -0.2 9.4 E146 silent
E147 2023-09-29 decay -0.2 9.2 E147 silent
E148 2023-10-07 decay -0.2 9.0 E148 silent
E149 2023-10-13 decay -0.2 8.8 E149 silent
E150 2023-10-20 decay -0.2 8.7 E150 silent
E151 2023-10-27 decay -0.2 8.5 E151 silent
E152 2023-11-03 decay -0.2 8.3 E152 silent