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Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E220 · 2025-03-22 ▶ 1:01:21

One of the biggest mistakes that I think Janet Yellen affected was this continued issuance of money on the short end of the curve to finance these deficits, which gives you, you inherit, an incredibly difficult challenge, I think, over the next nine months. I think there's like nine or 10 trillion that has to get refinanced.

Jason support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E216 · 2025-02-21 ▶ 59:44

And we plundered and we wasted them by adding 16 trillion to the debt during a good time. Like, what's going to happen during a bad time? Just absolutely brutal.

There's two deflationary things that we need. One is DOGE, and two is where AI is going to take us if it really does its thing, and that will keep us in an okay spot economically. But this spend has to go or we're in Greek territory, if that makes sense.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E213 · 2025-01-31 ▶ 1:40:59

So we don't have a lot of room here where you can walk rates up to 5.5%, 6% without a lot of things starting to break.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E213 · 2025-01-31 ▶ 1:39:29

Watch the D'Aulio interview because this is exactly the topic he covers. As we end up needing to refinance this debt, the rates climb, the appetite isn't there, and it becomes a spiral. That's why we have to cut fast in terms of the deficit to basically attract the market.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E206 · 2024-12-07 ▶ 11:03

And that leads to excessive spending, and that leads to the debt problem. And the debt problem creates this kind of arithmetic debt, debt spiral, which is something you don't want to find yourself in

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 4:25

If it doesn't get fixed, as I've said countless times before, we are in an arithmetic debt-depth spiral.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 26:28

Right now, we're unsustainable. The bond markets know it. Inflation remains persistently high, around 3%.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E204 · 2024-11-16 ▶ 18:59

if you're going to run 8% of GDP level deficits for the next four or five or six years, you're going to have the 10 year at 7 to 8%. That's just mathematical.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E202 · 2024-11-01 ▶ 16:08

You cannot have a nonprofit entity representing the plurality of the economic activity of a country and expect the capital markets to function properly.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E202 · 2024-11-01 ▶ 22:29

this becomes the compounding problem when your debt to GDP reaches a certain level and you don't reduce federal spending fast enough, it becomes a compounding problem you cannot get away from

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E202 · 2024-11-01 ▶ 13:13

we have this real issue where as the Fed is cutting short rates, long rates are not going down. And I think that is because of the government deficit and the government debt

Jason support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 18:40

a little bit of austerity measures coming at some point

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 44:18

How can you get 4.25% when you have all of these risks looming over the next 10 years?

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 21:55

I think it is inevitable that the federal reserve in the United States is going to need to buy the debt

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 46:55

we normalized emergency conditions and consequence-free spending by the US government

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E198 · 2024-10-03 ▶ 1:09:08

On the first day of the new fiscal year, federal debt jumped by $204 billion in one day. Federal debt now stands at $35.7 trillion. And the biggest challenge we have in the year ahead is that $10 trillion of the outstanding debt comes up for refinance. It's going to refinance at around 4%. So we're going to be adding another $300 billion in new interest expense next fiscal year, plus the Biden administration has proposed a $7.2 trillion budget for next year, which will inevitably lead to another $2 trillion of deficit spending, which means that by the end of 2025, we could be staring at $40 trillion of federal debt. And if you do the math on that at 4% interest, it's $1.6 trillion a year of interest expense a year just on interest expense on the outstanding debt, which effectively begins to eclipse the entire federal budget very quickly

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E193 · 2024-08-23 ▶ 13:59

We're running unsustainably high levels of deficit and debt. We're running, what, $2 trillion a year deficits right now. And what are we getting for that? We're not getting a super robust economy. We're getting an economy that's narrowly staying out of recession.

Sacks support ×1 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E191 · 2024-08-09 ▶ 21:30

I tend to agree with Friedberg here that when you have massive amounts of debt, it definitely limits your flexibility.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E191 · 2024-08-09 ▶ 22:32

As all of the low interest bonds mature and we issue new debt at a higher interest rate, our debt service cost is going to continue to climb. It's already higher than discretionary military spending at over a trillion a year.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E190 · 2024-08-02 ▶ 37:58

And unfortunately, the action that will be taken to resolve this isn't necessarily a free market action. It's going to end up being some sort of government intervention, which furthers the government's involvement in the economy and furthers the tentacles that make it much harder to ultimately pull out of this spiral and this problem.

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E190 · 2024-08-02 ▶ 36:11

So the only reason why we're in positive GDP growth territory is because of massive government spending that we know is not sustainable. And at some point, the bill is going to come due for that.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E185 · 2024-06-29 ▶ 33:31

The cost to service the interest alone on our federal debt is now greater than a trillion dollars per year. This already exceeds the discretionary defense budget.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E184 · 2024-06-20 ▶ 54:15

it took us 200 years as a country to add a trillion dollars to our federal debt, to go from zero to a trillion. And now we're adding a trillion every hundred days.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis E183 · 2024-06-14 ▶ 1:22:38

You had 1.3% GDP growth rate with a 6% of GDP deficit by the government.