-0.5
net board stance
what this means
28.95
+9.8% · close 2026-09-08
-1% / -31% / +108%
1m / 3m / 12m
+294%
vs SPY since 2025-05-17
42%
of 52w range · -41.7% off high
—
hit rate as primary
Where we stand — 1 live idea
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | flag | eval in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🤖 Neoclouds are a transitory GPU arbitrage, not a durable business CONTESTED | ▼ SHORT | adjacent ×0.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | — | 179d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding APLD, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Gavin Baker
oppose ×3
▼ on
🤖 Neoclouds are a transitory GPU arbitrage, not a durable business
E221 · 2025-03-29
▶ 12:47
I think what may be underappreciated about CoreWeave is it's actually really hard to run these big training clusters. Everybody thinks it's easy, but to synchronize tens of thousands of GPUs where they're melting, or cables are being unplugged, and you lose a bunch of training data when it happens. I just think it may not be the commodity that everyone thinks it is, and it may turn out that it's much harder to do than people think.
JO
Joe Lonsdale
oppose ×2
▼ on
🤖 Neoclouds are a transitory GPU arbitrage, not a durable business
E218 · 2025-03-08
▶ 57:28
It's really interesting what they did is they locked down the full supply of tons of data centers, tons of the power they needed, tons of the chips. They're very, very thoughtful. I mean, they're effectively, they're traders and they're very economic. And I think they have a lot of the stuff well.
Friedberg
support ×2
▼ on
🤖 Neoclouds are a transitory GPU arbitrage, not a durable business
E218 · 2025-03-08
▶ 59:13
And so I worry a little bit about a business like this, where there's four or five companies that are each doing 80 billion dollars of CapEx this year to create infrastructure that effectively starts to replace what these guys are effectively offering out as a service. ... If I was to do diligence on this business, that's where I would spend a lot of my time is like, guys, what's the capacity going to be in a year or two? Sort of like when broadband hit the Internet, you didn't need speed doublers anymore.